MVR · RACE 4
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.62
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #9 Clay Soldier (a closer, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 71 · 73 · 72. Backup is #8 We'll Do It Live at 4-1. Use #2 Pounds In Town in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Changes barns, from Michael V Simone to Jay P Bernardini. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Has moved up each time out, 60 to 67 to 72.
Was running in optional claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Last out was 5th, 4¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse optional claiming race at TDN.
Off 49 days since the last start. 4th last time, 3½ lengths back, in a field of 7.
Won last out in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at TDN. Has won 5 of 11 going today's distance.
3 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
Drops from $7,500 claiming to $5,000 claiming. Winner of an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at TDN last time.
Cuts back from a mile to 5½ furlongs. Carries 124 pounds, 5 more than last time.
A 66 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par. Was 4th of 5 at the first call last time.
At a glance
- Market favourite #9 CLAY SOLDIER (3-1) — our number agrees.
- #9 CLAY SOLDIER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.3% to their 19.6%).
- #8 WE'LL DO IT LIVE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.7% to their 15.7%).
- #2 POUNDS IN TOWN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.4% to their 14.2%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Thee New Beginning; pressure from #8 We'll Do It Live, #5 Miss Foxann; the shape helps #1 Bo Runkle, #2 Pounds In Town, #5 Miss Foxann; and works against #3 Thee New Beginning, #8 We'll Do It Live.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#9 Clay Soldier
Top of the field by a clear 10-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#9 Clay Soldier OVER #8 We'll Do It Live · #2 Pounds In Town · #5 Miss Foxann
Key #9 Clay Soldier on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#9 Clay Soldier / #8 We'll Do It Live · #2 Pounds In Town · #5 Miss Foxann / #8 We'll Do It Live · #2 Pounds In Town · #5 Miss Foxann · #3 Thee New Beginning
#9 Clay Soldier keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Superfecta — KEY
#9 Clay Soldier / #8 We'll Do It Live · #2 Pounds In Town · #5 Miss Foxann · #3 Thee New Beginning / #8 We'll Do It Live · #2 Pounds In Town · #5 Miss Foxann · #3 Thee New Beginning / ALL or #8 We'll Do It Live · #2 Pounds In Town · #5 Miss Foxann · #3 Thee New Beginning
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE
50 CENT PICK 3 RACES 4-5-6) / 50 CENT PICK 5 (RACES 4-8) 50% CARRYOVER