MVR · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$12,100

Post

12:15 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

IQ top

#7 · 89

PANELPASS · lean #7 PAVED IN GOLD [MAX]see full panel →

Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.62

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Paved In Gold (a closer, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 71 · 61 · 61. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Trophy Husband at 5-2. Use #2 Johnny Lies in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1WIN

7Paved In Gold

Jockey Guillermo Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Nancy L Adams 18% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Big Lucky 3-1, R6: I'Ll Figure It Out 20-1

Last out was 3rd, 3 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at BTP. Was 5th of 6 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 115d back)

M/L10-1

IQ89

TierLive

StyleS

Last3rd · 18d

2PLACE

1Trophy Husband

Jockey Luis Negron 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jay P Bernardini 34% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R4: Clay Soldier 3-1, R5: Ur Fabulous 5-2, R5: Miss Queue 8-1, R6: Game Boy Benny 6-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 73. Beaten ½ length for 2nd in a 10-horse $7,500 claiming race at MVR.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 100d ago

M/L5-2

IQ83

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 8d

3SHOW

2Johnny Lies

Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career ★ 6-for-26 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 17 · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Happy Match 8-1, R5: Little Value Added 10-1, R7: Queen Kitty 6-1, R8: Cleatus 10-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS2/3 board here

Moves up from $4,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 65 against a 78 par.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 11d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

M/L6-1

IQ75

TierLive

StyleS

Last2nd · 55d

4EXOTICS

3Probably

Jockey German Terraza 22% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Kelli Martinez 32% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Glad Von D 12-1 · Trainer this race: D D's Legacy 8-1, R5: Glad Von D 12-1, R5: Starlit Sofi 6-1

German Terraza takes over from Kevin Roman in the saddle. 7th last time, 3¾ lengths back, in a field of 7.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

M/L15-1

IQ58

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last7th · 33d

5EXOTICS

9Leo's Legacy

Jockey L R Rivera 34% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Jeff Radosevich 37% career ★ 6-for-22 on dirt this meet (27%), #1 of 14 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R7: Gray Perfection 5-2 · Trainer this race: Gunn's Roar 15-1

Winless in 5 starts at this distance. 3rd of 13 at 4F on Jul 1, in :49.60.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 8d ago

M/L7-2

IQ49

TierLive

StyleP

Last4th · 36d

4D D's Legacy

Jockey David J Haldar 27% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Kelli Martinez 32% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Mali Bali 15-1, R5: Neblina 15-1, R8: Meadow Devil 15-1 · Trainer this race: Probably 15-1, R5: Glad Von D 12-1, R5: Starlit Sofi 6-1

Was running in $7,500 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Worked 4F in :47.20 on May 1, 3rd of 15 at the distance.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 65d back)

M/L8-1

IQ47

TierLive

StyleP

Last6th · 33d

5A Bit Of Captain

Jockey Jefferson Skerrett 14% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jeffrey Skerrett 26% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Lucky Jeremy 5-2, R4: Thee New Beginning 5-1, R5: Shiloh 15-1, R6: Quarantino 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: I'Ll Figure It Out 20-1, R6: Quarantino 8-1

Figures are climbing: 61, 67, 69 over its last three. 0 for 9 at today's distance.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 136d back)

M/L9-2

IQ44

TierLive

StyleS

Last3rd · 36d

8Union Swag

Jockey D L Parker 35% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Gary L Johnson 31% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Miss Queue 8-1, R6: Daddy Justify 5-2 · Trainer R4: Tizzy Jojo 10-1

4/6 board here

Carries 124 pounds, 5 more than last time. Best recent figure is 67, well under the 78 par for this level.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 333 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L20-1

IQ36

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last6th · 36d

6Saint Cloud

Jockey Humberto Haldar 27% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Ivan Calderon 28% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Star Weaver 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Ivan Calderon takes over the training from Daniel Velazquez. Led at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 26 (4F in :47.60), 0 works in 30d

M/L10-1

IQ33

TierLongshot

StyleE

Last7th · 26d

10Gunn's Roar

Jockey Jose A Bracho 35% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jeff Radosevich 37% career ★ 6-for-22 on dirt this meet (27%), #1 of 14 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: We'll Do It Live 4-1, R5: Yalorde 15-1, R7: She's Willie Fast 7-2 · Trainer this race: Leo's Legacy 7-2

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 66 against a 78 par. Winless in 6 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 9d ago

M/L15-1

IQ28

TierLongshot

StyleE

Last8th · 36d

At a glance

Market favourite #1 TROPHY HUSBAND (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
#1 TROPHY HUSBAND — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 22.0%).
#9 LEO'S LEGACY — our #5 number, about right at the windows (15.9% to their 17.1%).
#5 A BIT OF CAPTAIN — our #7 number, about right at the windows (13.0% to their 14.0%).

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: LONGSHOT-VALUE — #7 PAVED IN GOLD — convergence longshot: fair 8.3% over market 7.0% with PACE_FITS

Longshot value: #7 PAVED IN GOLD (10-1) — our fair 8.3% is above the morning line's 7.0%; supported by: 5-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Saint Cloud; pressure from #10 Gunn's Roar, #3 Probably; the shape helps #1 Trophy Husband, #3 Probably, #4 D D's Legacy; and works against #6 Saint Cloud, #10 Gunn's Roar.

Lead

6Saint Cloud9510Gunn's Roar90

Press

3Probably881Trophy Husband878Union Swag86

Stalk

4D D's Legacy859Leo's Legacy83

5A Bit Of Captain797Paved In Gold792Johnny Lies76

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Saint Cloud

Gunn's Roar

Probably

Trophy Husband

Union Swag

D D's Legacy

Leo's Legacy

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Johnny Lies

A Bit Of Captain

Paved In Gold

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Win / Place

#7 Paved In Gold (place saver: #1 Trophy Husband)

#7 Paved In Gold rates the best; #1 Trophy Husband the logical insurance if you want to be covered.

Exacta — BOX

#7 Paved In Gold · #1 Trophy Husband

Two standouts with little between them — box #7 Paved In Gold and #1 Trophy Husband both ways.

Trifecta — BOX

#7 Paved In Gold · #1 Trophy Husband · #2 Johnny Lies

Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.

Superfecta — KEY

#7 Paved In Gold / #1 Trophy Husband · #2 Johnny Lies · #3 Probably · #9 Leo's Legacy / #1 Trophy Husband · #2 Johnny Lies · #3 Probably · #9 Leo's Legacy / ALL or #1 Trophy Husband · #2 Johnny Lies · #3 Probably · #9 Leo's Legacy

Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.

★ Value angle Live underneath: #3 Probably — the pace setup fits this one; use it in the 3rd/4th slots of your exotics for price.

Bet types offered at this track →

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE

50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3) / 50 CENT PICK 5 (RACES 1-5) 50% CARRYOVER

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.