MVR · RACE 3
UPCOMINGClaiming $15,000
Claiming $15,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.95
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #1 Big Lucky (a closer, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 80 · 80 · 75. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Lucky Jeremy at 5-2. Use #2 Real Naughty in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Has won 4 of 11 going today's distance. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 84, with 82 next best. 4th last time, 6 lengths back, in a field of 5.
Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to a mile. 4 wins from 8 starts at this distance.
Changes barns, from James Canegata to Ricardo Bailey. Drops from allowance to $15,000 claiming.
Raises its level, optional claiming last time and $15,000 claiming now. Finished 3rd last time in a 7-horse optional claiming race at BTP.
Owns the highest recent figure here at 84. Last out was 2nd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in a 4-horse optional claiming race at MNR.
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 LUCKY JEREMY (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #3 LUCKY JEREMY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.3% to their 23.1%).
- #1 BIG LUCKY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 20.2%).
- #2 REAL NAUGHTY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.6% to their 16.2%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Real Naughty; pressure from #3 Lucky Jeremy, #4 Accona; the shape helps #4 Accona, #5 Sweeping Giant, #6 St. Louie Louie; and works against #2 Real Naughty, #3 Lucky Jeremy.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#1 Big Lucky
Top of the field by a clear 11-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#1 Big Lucky OVER #3 Lucky Jeremy · #2 Real Naughty · #5 Sweeping Giant
Key #1 Big Lucky on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#1 Big Lucky / #3 Lucky Jeremy · #2 Real Naughty · #5 Sweeping Giant / #3 Lucky Jeremy · #2 Real Naughty · #5 Sweeping Giant · #4 Accona
#1 Big Lucky keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE
50 CENT PICK 3 RACES (3-4-5) / 20 CENT BUCKEYE PICK 6 (RACES 3-8)-60% CARRYOVER