MVR · RACE 5
UPCOMINGClaiming $7,500
Claiming $7,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #7 Starlit Sofi (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 61 · 65 · 62. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Constant Chatter at 5-1. Use #1 Glad Von D in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6 furlongs. The May 14 work, 5F in 1:00.80, was the best time at that distance that morning.
Has moved up each time out, 60 to 65 to 71. Has won 2 of 3 going today's distance.
Drops from $10,000 claiming to $7,500 claiming. Best recent figure is 68, well under the 76 par for this level.
Owns the highest recent figure here at 76. 2nd last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 6.
Won last out in a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at TDN. Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and $7,500 claiming now.
Figures have slipped: 71, 62, 51 over its last three. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.
Last start was a win, in a 6-horse $7,500 claiming race at TDN at 1.4-1. Worked 4F in :48.60 on Apr 21, 3rd of 39 at the distance.
Robin Schuster takes over the training from Elias Lopez. Picks up 4 pounds from its last start.
Tops the field on speed figures, a 76 against 71 for the next best. 0 for 5 at today's distance.
Carries 124 pounds, 5 more than last time. 3rd of 9 at 3F on Oct 3, in :36.80.
Off 48 days since the last start. Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time.
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 UR FABULOUS (5-2) — our number has it ranked #4.
- #2 UR FABULOUS — our #4 number, about right at the windows (21.6% to their 21.8%).
- #8 VERONICAFORTHEWIN — our #8 number, about right at the windows (13.8% to their 15.3%).
- #4 CONSTANT CHATTER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 12.7%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #1 GLAD VON D (12-1) — our fair 6.8% is above the morning line's 5.9%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #11 Neblina; pressure from #9 Yalorde, #6 Miss Queue; the shape helps #1 Glad Von D, #2 Ur Fabulous, #4 Constant Chatter; and works against #9 Yalorde, #11 Neblina.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#7 Starlit Sofi (place saver: #4 Constant Chatter)
#7 Starlit Sofi rates the best; #4 Constant Chatter the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#7 Starlit Sofi · #4 Constant Chatter
Two standouts with little between them — box #7 Starlit Sofi and #4 Constant Chatter both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#7 Starlit Sofi · #4 Constant Chatter · #1 Glad Von D
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#7 Starlit Sofi / #4 Constant Chatter · #1 Glad Von D · #2 Ur Fabulous · #3 Shiloh / #4 Constant Chatter · #1 Glad Von D · #2 Ur Fabulous · #3 Shiloh / ALL or #4 Constant Chatter · #1 Glad Von D · #2 Ur Fabulous · #3 Shiloh
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE
50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 5-6-7-8) 50% CARRYOVER