MVR · RACE 7
UPCOMINGState-Bred Allowance · $36,200 purse
Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won four races lifetime.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #7 Miss Elecktra (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 74 · 78 · 80. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Queen Kitty at 6-1. Use #1 Gray Perfection in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Owns the highest recent figure here at 80. Trending the wrong way on speed, 80 to 78 to 74.
Best recent figure is 73, well under the 82 par for this level. Erik Barbaran takes over from Brandon Tapara in the saddle.
2nd last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 5. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
Raises its level, $16,000 claiming last time and allowance now. Jockey switch: Erik Barbaran last out, Brandon Tapara today.
Was 5th of 5 at the first call last time. Picks up 4 pounds from its last start.
Figures are climbing: 55, 57, 66 over its last three. Won last out in a 7-horse $50,000 claiming race at TDN.
A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, allowance today. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 69 against a 82 par.
At a glance
- Market favourite #7 MISS ELECKTRA (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #7 MISS ELECKTRA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.2% to their 26.4%).
- #1 GRAY PERFECTION — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 22.6%).
- #6 SHE'S WILLIE FAST — our #5 number, about right at the windows (18.3% to their 17.6%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #7 Miss Elecktra; pressure from #2 Queen Kitty, #1 Gray Perfection; the shape helps #1 Gray Perfection, #3 Holidays Army Brat, #5 Ron Dah Lou; and works against #2 Queen Kitty, #7 Miss Elecktra.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#7 Miss Elecktra (place saver: #2 Queen Kitty)
#7 Miss Elecktra rates the best; #2 Queen Kitty the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#7 Miss Elecktra · #2 Queen Kitty
Two standouts with little between them — box #7 Miss Elecktra and #2 Queen Kitty both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#7 Miss Elecktra · #2 Queen Kitty · #1 Gray Perfection
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE