MVR · RACE 8

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

11 runners

Purse

$31,800

Post

3:31 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

IQ top

#5 · 94

PANELVALUE · lean #5 AIR RAID [MAX]see full panel →

Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Air Raid (a closer, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 46 · 34 · 36. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Cleatus at 10-1. Use #3 Bay Ja Blue in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1WIN

5Air Raid

Jockey Mia Nicholls 30% career · Trainer Darragh Holden 19% career

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 26d back

M/L6-1

IQ94

TierContender

StyleS

Last3rd · 38d

2PLACE

7Cleatus

Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career ★ 6-for-26 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 17 · Trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza 23% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Johnny Lies 6-1, R2: Happy Match 8-1, R5: Little Value Added 10-1, R7: Queen Kitty 6-1 · Trainer R4: Pounds In Town 9-2, R5: Yalorde 15-1

◆ LIVE · TRIP TROUBLE

Still looking for the first win after 7 starts. Gets a new rider, Erik Barbaran replacing Alejandro Gomez.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 78 days ago

M/L10-1

IQ69

TierLive

StyleS

Last6th · 22d

3SHOW

3Bay Ja Blue

Jockey Mauro Cedillo 28% career 3-for-9 on dirt this meet (33%), #2 of 17 · Trainer Jacinto Lopez 26% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Bend My Ear 5-2, R3: Real Naughty 4-1

Best recent figure is 62, well under the 71 par for this level. Beaten 3 lengths for 4th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at TDN.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Mid move4-5w; outfinish last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 84d ago

M/L12-1

IQ67

TierLongshot

StyleS

Last4th · 22d

4EXOTICS

4Meadow Devil

Jockey David J Haldar 27% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Loren Huepenbecker 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: D D's Legacy 8-1, R4: Mali Bali 15-1, R5: Neblina 15-1 · Trainer R6: Aye Aye Sir 10-1, R7: Queen Kitty 6-1, R7: Mandolin Breeze 12-1

First career start, by Kiss The Ghost out of Susie's Prayer. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 1).

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 13d ago

M/L15-1

IQ62

TierLongshot

StyleNA

LastDebut

5EXOTICS

10Candyman Andy

Jockey Chelsey Keiser 33% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Tina Casalinova 20% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Electa 1-1, R4: Miss Foxann 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Tina Casalinova takes over the training from Deborah Keiser. Owns the highest recent figure here at 65.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP 3f in :37.00 on Oct 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

M/L8-5

IQ61

TierContender

StyleE

Last3rd · 22d

9Spring River

Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rodney C Faulkner 21% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Trainer R5: Neblina 15-1

Carries 123 pounds, 4 more than last time. Elijah Greenidge takes over from Erik Barbaran in the saddle.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Through early), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 106 days ago

M/L20-1

IQ55

TierLongshot

StyleS

Last9th · 22d

2Remix From Phoenix

Jockey Angel I Diaz 33% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Joshua Langley 27% career

Also today · Trainer this race: Lucy's First Song 20-1

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 55 against a 71 par. A step up in company: maiden claiming $16,000 before, maiden special weight today.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 66d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L15-1

IQ51

TierLongshot

StyleE

Last5th · 28d

6Lucy's First Song

Jockey Jason Simpson 32% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Joshua Langley 27% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Sweeping Giant 8-1 · Trainer this race: Remix From Phoenix 15-1

Moves up from maiden claiming $12,500 to maiden special weight. Jockey switch: Angel I Diaz last out, Jason Simpson today.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 139 days ago

M/L20-1

IQ49

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 21d

8Everynowandthen

Jockey T D Houghton 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Danny Bird 25% career

Worked 4F in :49.00 on Jun 24, 3rd of 18 at the distance. Maiden through 6 starts.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 48 days ago

M/L4-1

IQ49

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last5th · 22d

1Same Strike

Jockey Yarmarie L Correa 30% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer William R Helmbrecht 21% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Constant Chatter 5-1, R6: Zimba Warrior 12-1

★ FASTEST WORK

4th last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 4. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.40 on Aug 28 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

M/L8-1

IQ31

TierLongshot

StyleNA

Last4th · 32d

11River Captain

Jockey J Stokes 25% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Justin Radosevich 37% career ★ 6-for-22 on dirt this meet (27%), #1 of 14

Also today · Jockey R4: Holiday Lights 10-1, R6: Aye Aye Sir 10-1

Dropped in well back early last out, 10th of 10 at the first call. Finished 8th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at TDN, beaten 11 lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

M/L10-1

IQ28

TierLongshot

StyleNA

Last8th · 22d

At a glance

Market favourite #10 CANDYMAN ANDY (8-5) — our number has it ranked #5.
#10 CANDYMAN ANDY — our #5 number, about right at the windows (26.7% to their 29.2%).
#8 EVERYNOWANDTHEN — our #9 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 15.2%).
#5 AIR RAID — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 13.6%, they've got 10.8%.

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: VALUE — #5 AIR RAID — anchored 13.6% vs market 10.8% (+26.2% edge, LIVE band)

#5 AIR RAID — we make it 13.6%, the morning line implies 10.8%. We're 26.2 points higher than the line — our opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #10 Candyman Andy; pressure from #2 Remix From Phoenix, #6 Lucy's First Song; the shape helps #6 Lucy's First Song, #8 Everynowandthen; and works against #1 Same Strike, #2 Remix From Phoenix, #4 Meadow Devil.

Lead

10Candyman Andy892Remix From Phoenix87

Press

6Lucy's First Song848Everynowandthen84

Stalk

none

3Bay Ja Blue839Spring River837Cleatus705Air Raid67

No style yet

1Same Strike7211River Captain684Meadow Devil

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Candyman Andy

Remix From Phoenix

Lucy's First Song

Everynowandthen

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Bay Ja Blue

Cleatus

Spring River

Air Raid

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Win

#5 Air Raid

Top of the field by a clear 25-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.

Exacta — KEY

#5 Air Raid OVER #7 Cleatus · #3 Bay Ja Blue · #4 Meadow Devil

Key #5 Air Raid on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.

Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL

#5 Air Raid / #7 Cleatus · #3 Bay Ja Blue · #4 Meadow Devil / #7 Cleatus · #3 Bay Ja Blue · #4 Meadow Devil · #10 Candyman Andy

#5 Air Raid keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.

Superfecta — KEY

#5 Air Raid / #7 Cleatus · #3 Bay Ja Blue · #4 Meadow Devil · #10 Candyman Andy / #7 Cleatus · #3 Bay Ja Blue · #4 Meadow Devil · #10 Candyman Andy / ALL or #7 Cleatus · #3 Bay Ja Blue · #4 Meadow Devil · #10 Candyman Andy

Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.

★ Value angle Live underneath: #6 Lucy's First Song — the pace setup fits this one; use it in the 3rd/4th slots of your exotics for price.

Bet types offered at this track →

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.