MVR · RACE 6
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races recently.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #4 Zimba Warrior (a presser/stalker, M/L 12-1). Recent figures: 79 · 66 · 81. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #10 Simply Valid at 7-2. Use #3 Daddy Justify in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Finished 2nd in a 5-horse $5,000 claiming race at BTP, beaten 3½ lengths. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 5 at the first call.
Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at TDN at 1.8-1. 2nd of 25 at 3F on Apr 27, in :35.60.
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 87, with 83 next best. Class relief: allowance last time, $5,000 claiming today.
The Sep 7 work, 5F in 1:01.60, was the best time at that distance that morning. An 83 top number against a 81 par, so it fits the level.
A big drop, $12,500 claiming to $5,000 claiming, and worth asking why. 4th last time, 4 lengths back, in a field of 6.
Carries 124 pounds, 5 more than last time. Worked 3F in :36.40 on Aug 6, 3rd of 16 at the distance.
Gets a new rider, Brandon Tapara replacing Erik Barbaran. Fastest 3F work of its morning on May 16 (:35.40), a sign it is training forwardly.
Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 78).
Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile. Figures are climbing: 66, 71, 79 over its last three.
Turns back in 8 days. Drops from allowance to $5,000 claiming.
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 DADDY JUSTIFY (5-2) — our number has it ranked #3.
- #3 DADDY JUSTIFY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (21.5% to their 21.9%).
- #10 SIMPLY VALID — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.3% to their 17.1%).
- #9 TODDCHERO — our #4 number, about right at the windows (15.2% to their 15.4%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #4 ZIMBA WARRIOR (12-1) — our fair 7.1% is above the morning line's 5.9%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #7 Aye Aye Sir; pressure from #9 Toddchero, #1 I'Ll Figure It Out; and works against #1 I'Ll Figure It Out, #7 Aye Aye Sir, #9 Toddchero.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#4 Zimba Warrior (place saver: #10 Simply Valid)
#4 Zimba Warrior rates the best; #10 Simply Valid the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#4 Zimba Warrior · #10 Simply Valid
Two standouts with little between them — box #4 Zimba Warrior and #10 Simply Valid both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#4 Zimba Warrior · #10 Simply Valid · #3 Daddy Justify
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#4 Zimba Warrior / #10 Simply Valid · #3 Daddy Justify · #9 Toddchero · #2 Quarantino / #10 Simply Valid · #3 Daddy Justify · #9 Toddchero · #2 Quarantino / ALL or #10 Simply Valid · #3 Daddy Justify · #9 Toddchero · #2 Quarantino
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE
50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8)