MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 8

UPCOMING

RHP 40-55

Field

9 runners

Purse

$20,000

Post

3:31 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#1 · 17%

Unknown, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Ocean Windows (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 56 · 83 · 72. Backup is #5 Socialbutterflytam at 5-1. Use #6 Overly Dramatic in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

1Ocean Windows

Jockey Santiago Gonzalez 33% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Kathy Jarvis 32% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet

Was running in optional claiming; today's unknown is an easier level on paper. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 9d ago

M/L4-1

Model17%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last7th · 49d

22ND

5Socialbutterflytam

Jockey Jose A Bracho 35% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer William D Cowans 35% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Verbier 10-1, R4: Orfano 5-1, R6: Gleeful 10-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS3/3 board here

Freshened 120 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. 5 wins from 12 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 11d ago

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (1 win)

M/L5-1

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last4th · 120d

33RD

6Overly Dramatic

Jockey Bailey Weatherly 28% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Eric R Reed 31% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R7: Rose's Pepino 15-1 · Trainer this race: Creator Of Magic 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Gets a new rider, Bailey Weatherly replacing Charle Oliveros.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.80 on Apr 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

M/L3-1

Model19%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last4th · 30d

44TH

3Lu's Redemption

Jockey Luis Negron 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jay P Bernardini 34% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R6: Campaign Mischief 9-2, R7: Winter's Ghost 8-1

Switches from turf to dirt. Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 418 days ago

M/L9-2

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last2nd · 30d

55TH

7She's Crafty

Jockey Angel I Diaz 33% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Robert Guciardo 24% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Ipledthefifth 5-1, R3: Making Me Crazy 12-1, R7: Runwithheart 5-2

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLELASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORK4/6 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, an 88 against 87 for the next best. Trending the wrong way on speed, 82 to 79 to 67.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped start; trailed), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 48d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L10-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 27d

9The Sweaty Fox

Jockey Jefferson Skerrett 14% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jeffrey Skerrett 26% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Vladislav 8-1, R6: Glitter Queen 12-1 · Trainer R3: Vladislav 8-1

CLASS UP

Has won 9 of 20 going today's distance. Carries 119 pounds, 5 more than last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 43d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

M/L6-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last5th · 34d

2Creator Of Magic

Jockey Charle Oliveros 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Eric R Reed 31% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer this race: Overly Dramatic 3-1

3rd last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 5. Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 153 days ago

M/L8-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 49d

8Work'n On A Buzz

Jockey Mauro Cedillo 28% career 3-for-9 on dirt this meet (33%), #2 of 17 · Trainer Robert C Cline 30% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Digital Footprint 15-1, R6: Charisma In Motion 10-1 · Trainer R6: Steady My Heart 7-2

Figures have slipped: 75, 72, 69 over its last three. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.40 on May 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

M/L12-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last4th · 51d

4Not Today

Jockey Jerome J Innis 14% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Kevin Ray 19% career

★ FASTEST WORK0/5 board here

Class relief: allowance last time, unknown today. Led at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 67d back)

RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here

M/L15-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last7th · 22d

At a glance

Market favourite #6 OVERLY DRAMATIC (3-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
#6 OVERLY DRAMATIC — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.9% to their 19.5%).
#1 OCEAN WINDOWS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.1% to their 15.6%).
#5 SOCIALBUTTERFLYTAM — our #2 number, about right at the windows (14.0% to their 13.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #9 The Sweaty Fox; pressure from #4 Not Today, #1 Ocean Windows; the shape helps #1 Ocean Windows, #2 Creator Of Magic, #3 Lu's Redemption; and works against #4 Not Today, #9 The Sweaty Fox.

Lead

9The Sweaty Fox964Not Today93

Press

1Ocean Windows962Creator Of Magic896Overly Dramatic82

Stalk

3Lu's Redemption788Work'n On A Buzz70

7She's Crafty775Socialbutterflytam75

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Ocean Windows

The Sweaty Fox

Not Today

Creator Of Magic

Overly Dramatic

Lu's Redemption

Work'n On A Buzz

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Socialbutterflytam

She's Crafty

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