MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 7

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $17,600 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$17,600

Post

3:03 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Model top pick

#3 · 19%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 100.78

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Puff'smagicdragon (a closer, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 91 · 81 · 85. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 General Issue at 9-5. Use #6 Runwithheart in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Tactical / Honest: Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

1TOP PICK

3Puff'smagicdragon

Jockey L R Rivera 34% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Jeff Radosevich 37% career ★ 6-for-22 on dirt this meet (27%), #1 of 14 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Lady Jasper 6-5, R3: Star Entertainer 4-1, R5: That's The Way 5-2 · Trainer R1: Lady Jasper 6-5, R3: Star Entertainer 4-1, R5: That's The Way 5-2

3/5 board here

A 91 in its last five clears the 82 par for this level. Picks up 5 pounds from its last start.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Swung wide; gaining. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 177d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L9-2

Model19%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 21d

22ND

4General Issue

Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 0-for-15 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Cirilo Gorostieta 18% career

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Returns from a 111-day break, the biggest in the field. Figures have slipped: 90, 85, 76 over its last three.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 8 (4F in :48.00), 1 work in 30d

M/L9-5

Model26%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last4th · 111d

33RD

6Runwithheart

Jockey Angel I Diaz 33% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Caryn Vecchio 29% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Ipledthefifth 5-1, R3: Making Me Crazy 12-1, R8: She's Crafty 10-1 · Trainer R3: All My Life 6-1

3 wins from 7 starts at this distance. Trending the wrong way on speed, 92 to 87 to 83.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 184d back)

M/L5-2

Model19%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last4th · 21d

44TH

8Penny Loafer

Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career ★ 6-for-26 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 17 · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Mobil Chic 6-1, R2: Game Performer 8-1, R5: A Prayer For Kids 20-1

WON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 70 to 81 to 85. Winner of an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at LRL last time.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 94d ago

M/L6-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last1st · 24d

55TH

5Ghost Bike

Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Gerald Crawford 28% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Kettle Coalmine 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, a 93 against 92 for the next best. Drops from optional claiming to starter allowance.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 21 (4F in :48.00), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

M/L10-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last2nd · 21d

7Dr Schuster

Jockey Brandon Tapara 32% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Robin Schuster 20% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Colonel Poppy 3-1, R4: Judy's Comet 9-2, R6: Campaign Mischief 9-2 · Trainer R3: Colonel Poppy 3-1

6/8 board here

Last out was 5th, 11 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse optional claiming race at TDN. 2nd of 12 at 4F on Apr 8, in :48.60.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 459d back)

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 8 starts here

M/L20-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last5th · 21d

1Winter's Ghost

Jockey D L Parker 35% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Jay P Bernardini 34% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Electric Melody 5-2, R2: Good Directions 3-1, R3: Coastertothemoon 7-2, R5: Red Head Kid 12-1 · Trainer R6: Campaign Mischief 9-2, R8: Lu's Redemption 9-2

CLASS DROP

New trainer: Jonathan Maldonado had it last time, Jay P Bernardini now. Class relief: optional claiming last time, starter allowance today.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 66d ago

M/L8-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 34d

2Rose's Pepino

Jockey Bailey Weatherly 28% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Robert L Inman 21% career

Also today · Jockey R8: Overly Dramatic 3-1

2nd last time, 11 lengths back, in a field of 8. Was running in $7,500 claiming; today's starter allowance is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 30d back

M/L15-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last2nd · 24d

At a glance

Market favourite #4 GENERAL ISSUE (9-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
#4 GENERAL ISSUE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (26.7% to their 27.9%).
#6 RUNWITHHEART — our #3 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 22.3%).
#3 PUFF'SMAGICDRAGON — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.4%, they've got 14.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 PUFF'SMAGICDRAGON — we make it 16.4%, the morning line works out to 14.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #1 Winter's Ghost; pressure from #7 Dr Schuster, #6 Runwithheart.

Lead

none

Press

1Winter's Ghost927Dr Schuster886Runwithheart854General Issue71

Stalk

8Penny Loafer84

5Ghost Bike793Puff'smagicdragon782Rose's Pepino64

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Winter's Ghost

Dr Schuster

Runwithheart

Penny Loafer

General Issue

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Rose's Pepino

Puff'smagicdragon

Ghost Bike

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