MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 4
UPCOMINGClaiming $15,000
Claiming $15,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won four races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #4 Orfano (a closer, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 64 · 66 · 67. Backup is #7 Run Vinicius at 20-1. Use #11 Mr. Bali in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
A big drop, allowance to $15,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs.
Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call. Picks up 5 pounds from its last start.
Freshened 120 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile.
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 73 against a 81 par. Figures are climbing: 60, 63, 73 over its last three.
T D Houghton takes over from Brandon Tapara in the saddle. 7th last time, 12 lengths back, in a field of 8.
Moves up from $7,500 claiming to $15,000 claiming. Last out was 2nd, 3 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse $7,500 claiming race at TDN.
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 79, with 77 next best. Worked 4F in :48.20 on Jun 20, 2nd of 30 at the distance.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 74 to 72 to 66. Class relief: allowance last time, $15,000 claiming today.
Winner of a 7-horse allowance race at BTP last time. Back to 6 furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race.
A 65 is the high figure lately, short of the 81 par. Finished 5th in a 7-horse $16,000 claiming race at TDN, beaten 17 lengths.
A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, $15,000 claiming today. Jacinto Lopez takes over the training from Johanson Serrano.
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 LUCKY VICTOR (3-1) — our number has it ranked #8.
- #6 LUCKY VICTOR — our #8 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 19.2%).
- #4 ORFANO — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.8%, they've got 12.8%.
- #10 LITTLE SHANCE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (14.1% to their 15.4%).
Model vs the morning line
- #4 ORFANO — we make it 15.8%, the morning line works out to 12.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 RUN VINICIUS (20-1) — our fair 5.0% is above the morning line's 3.7%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #6 Lucky Victor; pressure from #2 Sheltowees Bling, #9 Judy's Comet; the shape helps #1 Kettle Coalmine, #3 Fast And Friendly, #8 Merger; and works against #2 Sheltowees Bling, #6 Lucky Victor.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE
50 CENT PICK 3 RACES 4-5-6) / 50 CENT PICK 5 (RACES 4-8) 50% CARRYOVER
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta