MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Claiming $7,500

Field

9 runners

Purse

$14,600

Post

2:35 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Model top pick

#9 · 17%

Claiming $7,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.62

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #9 Florida Gal (early speed, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 68 · 68 · 64. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #6 Honor And Obay at 5-1. Use #2 Gleeful in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1TOP PICK

9Florida Gal

Jockey Victor R Fernandez 29% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza 23% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Hightail Fox 7-2, R4: Lucky Victor 3-1, R5: Gray Tormentor 20-1 · Trainer R4: Run Vinicius 20-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 7-horse maiden claiming $5,000 race at TDN at 1-1. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 88).

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 24; 0 works in 30d

M/L4-1

Model17%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last1st · 26d

22ND

6Honor And Obay

Jockey Becerra Fernando Salazar 24% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Saul M Morales 31% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: All My Life 6-1, R5: Sammy's Smile 10-1 · Trainer R4: Mr. Bali 10-1, this race: Glitter Queen 12-1

★ FASTEST WORK4/4 board here

Class relief: allowance last time, $7,500 claiming today. Tops the field on speed figures, a 75 against 69 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Sep 28; 2 works in 30d

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (1 win)

M/L5-1

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 22d

33RD

2Gleeful

Jockey Jose A Bracho 35% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Richard Estvanko 27% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Verbier 10-1, R4: Orfano 5-1, R8: Socialbutterflytam 5-1 · Trainer R4: Orfano 5-1

A big drop, $15,000 claiming to $7,500 claiming, and worth asking why. A 64 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 98d back)

M/L10-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last5th · 19d

44TH

7I'Ll Stop Talking

Jockey Guillermo Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Marianne Manning 20% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Need To Know Basis 3-1

Figures have slipped: 64, 56, 53 over its last three. 3rd last time, 6 lengths back, in a field of 4.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 137 days ago

M/L8-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last3rd · 35d

55TH

1Steady My Heart

Jockey J Stokes 25% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Robert C Cline 30% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Trainer R8: Work'n On A Buzz 12-1

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Changes barns, from William N Martin to Robert C Cline. Was running in $12,500 claiming; today's $7,500 claiming is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 8 (5F in 1:01.60), 0 works in 30d

M/L7-2

Model17%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last5th · 28d

3Charisma In Motion

Jockey Mauro Cedillo 28% career 3-for-9 on dirt this meet (33%), #2 of 17 · Trainer Candace M Huffman 25% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Digital Footprint 15-1, R8: Work'n On A Buzz 12-1 · Trainer R3: Digital Footprint 15-1

Best recent figure is 67, well under the 75 par for this level. Beaten 7 lengths for 4th in a 7-horse allowance race at TDN.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 105d ago

M/L10-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last4th · 20d

8Proud Words

Jockey Chelsey Keiser 33% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Richard Zielinski 27% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Oh Glorious Day 15-1, R2: Admiral Nelson 12-1, R4: Merger 15-1 · Trainer R1: Mobil Chic 6-1, R3: Verbier 10-1, R4: Judy's Comet 9-2, R5: Sammy's Smile 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Finished 2nd in a 6-horse $7,500 claiming race at TDN, beaten 1 length. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Jun 9 (:48.40), a sign it is training forwardly.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 9 (4F in :48.40), 0 works in 30d

M/L6-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 34d

4Glitter Queen

Jockey Jefferson Skerrett 14% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Saul M Morales 31% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Vladislav 8-1, R8: The Sweaty Fox 6-1 · Trainer R4: Mr. Bali 10-1, this race: Honor And Obay 5-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Trending the wrong way on speed, 69 to 59 to 56. Saul M Morales takes over the training from Robert M Gorham.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.00 on Sep 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

M/L12-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last5th · 50d

5Campaign Mischief

Jockey Brandon Tapara 32% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jay P Bernardini 34% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Colonel Poppy 3-1, R4: Judy's Comet 9-2, R7: Dr Schuster 20-1 · Trainer R7: Winter's Ghost 8-1, R8: Lu's Redemption 9-2

Turns back in 9 days. 0 for 5 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 66 days ago

M/L9-2

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last2nd · 9d

At a glance

Market favourite #1 STEADY MY HEART (7-2) — our number has it ranked #5.
#1 STEADY MY HEART — our #5 number, about right at the windows (18.2% to their 17.3%).
#9 FLORIDA GAL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.2% to their 15.6%).
#6 HONOR AND OBAY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.7% to their 13.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Honor And Obay; pressure from #9 Florida Gal, #5 Campaign Mischief; and works against #5 Campaign Mischief, #6 Honor And Obay, #7 I'Ll Stop Talking.

Lead

6Honor And Obay949Florida Gal885Campaign Mischief877I'Ll Stop Talking78

Press

8Proud Words864Glitter Queen851Steady My Heart82

Stalk

2Gleeful773Charisma In Motion74

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Honor And Obay

Florida Gal

Campaign Mischief

Proud Words

Glitter Queen

Steady My Heart

I'Ll Stop Talking

Gleeful

Charisma In Motion

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Campaign Mischief

Charisma In Motion

Honor And Obay

Glitter Queen

Proud Words

Florida Gal

Steady My Heart

Gleeful

I'Ll Stop Talking

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE

50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8)

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