MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$12,200

Post

12:43 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Model top pick

#3 · 20%

Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #3 Ask Arthur (a closer, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 69 · 69 · 67. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Good Directions at 3-1. Use #9 Hightail Fox in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1TOP PICK

3Ask Arthur

Jockey German Terraza 22% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Kelli Martinez 32% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Back to 6 furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race. Was running in $10,000 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 8d back

M/L4-1

Model20%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 38d

22ND

1Good Directions

Jockey D L Parker 35% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Kevin Rice 37% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Electric Melody 5-2, R3: Coastertothemoon 7-2, R5: Red Head Kid 12-1, R7: Winter's Ghost 8-1

CLASS UP

A big drop, $25,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Owns the highest recent figure here at 82.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 6d back

M/L3-1

Model22%

Fav?Yes

StyleS

Last5th · 27d

33RD

9Hightail Fox

Jockey Victor R Fernandez 29% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Julie A Pappada 35% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Lucky Victor 3-1, R5: Gray Tormentor 20-1, R6: Florida Gal 4-1

Julie A Pappada takes over the training from Michael C Pappada. Fastest 4F work of its morning on May 9 (:46.40), a sign it is training forwardly.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 177 days ago

M/L7-2

Model19%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last8th · 14d

44TH

2Ipledthefifth

Jockey Angel I Diaz 33% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Cally Ann Herrington 17% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Making Me Crazy 12-1, R7: Runwithheart 5-2, R8: She's Crafty 10-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 6-horse $6,250 claiming race at PID at 1.2-1. Class relief: $6,250 claiming last time, $5,000 claiming today.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 66d ago

M/L5-1

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last1st · 14d

55TH

7Eileen's Desperado

Jockey David J Haldar 27% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Loren Huepenbecker 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Kerri's Miracle 8-1, R4: Mr. Bali 10-1, R5: Hite 5-1 · Trainer R4: Marquitos M 20-1, R5: A Prayer For Kids 20-1

2nd of 17 at 3F on May 16, in :36.20. Beaten 1½ lengths for 2nd in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at TDN.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 9d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

M/L6-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 27d

6Game Performer

Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career ★ 6-for-26 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 17 · Trainer Mike Rone 31% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Mobil Chic 6-1, R5: A Prayer For Kids 20-1, R7: Penny Loafer 6-1

2/4 board here

Best recent figure is 70, well under the 79 par for this level. Finished 4th in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at TDN, beaten 8 lengths.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 15d back

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

M/L8-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last4th · 27d

8Admiral Nelson

Jockey Chelsey Keiser 33% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Raquel A Castro 26% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Oh Glorious Day 15-1, R4: Merger 15-1, R6: Proud Words 6-1

0 for 8 at today's distance. Picks up 5 pounds from its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled start; empty. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 195d back)

M/L12-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last5th · 27d

5Ol' Nelson

Jockey Miguel L Martinez 33% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Richard L Genovese 19% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

3/6 board here

Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 82). Carries 124 pounds, 10 more than last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 153 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L20-1

Model3%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 29d

4Jackson's Roar

Jockey Jose A Leon 29% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Emily Szczepanski 20% career

★ FASTEST WORK

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 65 against a 79 par. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 2)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 1; 0 works in 30d

M/L20-1

Model3%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 30d

At a glance

Market favourite #1 GOOD DIRECTIONS (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#1 GOOD DIRECTIONS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 19.8%).
#9 HIGHTAIL FOX — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.8% to their 17.6%).
#3 ASK ARTHUR — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 15.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Admiral Nelson; pressure from #4 Jackson's Roar, #5 Ol' Nelson; the shape helps #1 Good Directions, #3 Ask Arthur; and works against #4 Jackson's Roar, #5 Ol' Nelson, #8 Admiral Nelson.

Lead

8Admiral Nelson904Jackson's Roar835Ol' Nelson82

Press

7Eileen's Desperado88

Stalk

6Game Performer842Ipledthefifth839Hightail Fox78

3Ask Arthur851Good Directions71

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Admiral Nelson

Eileen's Desperado

Game Performer

Ipledthefifth

Jackson's Roar

Ol' Nelson

Hightail Fox

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Ask Arthur

Good Directions

Bet types

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