Pick sheet

Race 41:39 PM Clm 5000n2y

6F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Beautiful Crazy, is 32% to win (morning line implies 23%). Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Beautiful Crazy ML 5-2 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ▲ Up +3

Jockey L. Rivera · Trainer A. Farrior · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 70 · 27 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	PID	6f D	Clm 6k b	4th/7	70	1.5-1	L	Set press pace;weaken
9/12	CT	6½f D	OC 10k	4th/9 -2L	69	15-1	L	Vied inside;fought on
8/20	CT	4½f D	OC 10k	4th/7 -4L	61	3.2-1	L	Press ins1/8;no kick

Case: Last out 4th/7 in the fClm6250b at PID. Last Brisnet figures 70-69-61. Best at today's distance 70. 0-for-1 at the distance. A. Farrior / L. Rivera.

Knock: Never raced at Mahoning Valley. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #7 Quick Recovery ML 6-1 Fair 7-1 Model #2 ► Steady ≡ Steady 69–76

Jockey J. Bracho · Trainer J. Radosevich · KEE 14: 4-3-2 · Dist 16: 4-3-3 · best fig at 6f dirt 76 · 27 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	TDN	5½f D	Clm 5k n2y	4th/7 -2L	71	4.5-1	b L	Even finished 4wide
8/17	TDN	6f D	Clm 5k n1y	Won/6	76	5.5-1	b L	Perfect trip; driving
7/28	TDN	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	4th/10 -1L	69	3.2-1	b L	Set pressured pace;

Case: Last out 4th/7 -2L in the fClm5000n2y at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 71-76-69. Best at today's distance 76. 4-for-16 at the distance. 4-for-14 at Mahoning Valley. J. Radosevich / J. Bracho.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #5 Fair Trade ML 7-2 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -10 Last out 6th/6 -3L in the fClm7500b at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 58-64-69. Best at today's distance 71. 1-for-10 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Mahoning Valley. J. Poole / E. Greenidge. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey E. Greenidge · Trainer J. Poole · KEE 2: 1-1-0 · Dist 10: 1-4-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 71 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	MNR	6f D	Clm 7k b	6th/6 -3L	58	1.8-1	b L	Gave way
9/21	MNR	5f D	Alw n1x	5th/6 by hd	64	11-1	b L	Brisk duel weakened;
9/1	MNR	5f D	Clm 7k n2y	3rd/4 -1L	69	3.3-1	b L	Drifted squeezed foe

Longshot #4 Angel of Harlem ML 12-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ▼ Down -5

Jockey A. Diaz · Trainer J. Eder · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 12: 0-2-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 75 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	MVR	6f D	Alw n1x	8th/10 -8¾L	58	25-1	b L	Stmbl'd st; no rally
9/30	PID	6f D	fsOC25000b	4th/6 -5L	69	27-1	b L	Stalked;lack cls kick
9/9	PID	6f D	Clm 16k	7th/7 -11L	52	24-1	b L	Trailed; no factor;

Case: Last out 8th/10 -8¾L in the fAlw36400n1x at MVR. Last Brisnet figures 58-69-52. Best at today's distance 75. 0-for-12 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Mahoning Valley. J. Eder / A. Diaz.

Knock: 0-for-12 at the distance.

★ Distance horse: #9 Timely Secret (9-2) has the best figure in the field at 6f dirt: 77 from 9 tries, record at the distance 19: 4-5-1. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #6, #7, #9 · B #1, #3, #5 · C #2, #4, #8

Angles: #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #3 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #8 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R4 Mahoning Valley · Claiming $5,000

1:39 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $13,000 · 9 runners1:39 PM · 6f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $13K · Claiming $5,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #9 Timely Secret (9-2) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 77 from 9 tries. Not in our top three.

1Breezy Dance▼L. Batista · J. BernardiniBatista · BernardiniB60 59 26▲▲+12↕8-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +1260 59 26 ↕B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 26–60 · Last 3 figs 60 59 26

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 0-for-19 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jay P Bernardini 34% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Greek Boutique 8-1, R3: Fourdatesforhoco 15-1, R5: Oak Mirna 20-1 · Trainer R7: Fivefive Six Champ 5-1

Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs. Figures are climbing: 26, 59, 60 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 1)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 75d back)

RECORD Luis Alberto Batista from post 1 here: 20 wins, 64 top-3 in 138 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n3x	4th/5 -½L	60	6.2-1	b L	Pressed pace; tired;
9/18	DEL	1m D	Clm 5k b	3rd/5 -4L	59	10-1	b L	Kept on; weakened late
6/29	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k n2yc	6th/6 -20L	26	3.4-1	b L	Vied btwn; stopped

2Miss ClassifiedR. Feliciano · B. FelicianoFeliciano · FelicianoC60 69 70▼▼-13@trip 6910-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1360 69 70@trip 69C
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 69 70
Jockey R Feliciano 31% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Benny R Feliciano 29% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Finally Friday 15-1, R5: Rabbi Rosette 2-1, R6: Bold Buckeye 8-1, R8: Loco Coco 3-1 · Trainer R5: Rabbi Rosette 2-1
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 81, with 79 next best. Last out was 8th, 12 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at TDN.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 0)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Dec 3 (5F in 1:01.00), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/28 TDN 6f D Clm 7k b 8th/8 -12L 60 5.6-1 b L Outrun
8/4 TDN 6f D Clm 5k n2y 7th/7 -7½L 69 4.9-1 b L Brief speed
7/22 TDN 1m D Clm 5k n2y 3rd/7 70 0.8-1 b L Set pace; outfinished

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	TDN	6f D	Clm 7k b	8th/8 -12L	60	5.6-1	b L	Outrun
8/4	TDN	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	7th/7 -7½L	69	4.9-1	b L	Brief speed
7/22	TDN	1m D	Clm 5k n2y	3rd/7	70	0.8-1	b L	Set pace; outfinished

3No Pay No Hay▼A. Bendezu · S. ManleyBendezu · ManleyB66 69 72►≡@trip 7210-1Fair 12-18%► Steady66 69 72 ≡@trip 72B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 64–72 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 69 72

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Alexander Bendezu 35% career · Trainer Steve Manley 31% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R7: Dark Vintage 7-2

★ FASTEST WORK

2nd last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 7. Trending the wrong way on speed, 72 to 69 to 66.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Advanced 5w; 2nd best), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.40 on Jun 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	FPK	6f D	Clm 5k n4l	2nd/7 -2L	66	1.9-1	b L	Advanced 5w;2nd best
9/1	FPK	5½f D	Clm 6k n4l	3rd/7	69	2.0-1	b L	Dueled past 1/16; game
8/8	FPK	6f D	Clm 6k n4l	2nd/8 -2¼L	72	4.1-1	b L	Angled 4w;bump1/8;btwn

4Angel of HarlemLSA. Diaz · J. EderDiaz · EderC58 69 52▼-5@trip 7512-1Fair 10-18%▼ Down -558 69 52@trip 75CLS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 69 52

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Angel I Diaz 33% career 3-for-25 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Justine Eder 14% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Playkoz 3-1

Drops from allowance to $5,000 claiming. 0 for 12 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 2)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 65d ago

RECORD Angel I Diaz from post 4 here: 20 wins, 69 top-3 in 151 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	MVR	6f D	Alw n1x	8th/10 -8¾L	58	25-1	b L	Stmbl'd st; no rally
9/30	PID	6f D	fsOC25000b	4th/6 -5L	69	27-1	b L	Stalked;lack cls kick
9/9	PID	6f D	Clm 16k	7th/7 -11L	52	24-1	b L	Trailed; no factor;

5Fair TradeE. Greenidge · J. PooleGreenidge · PooleB58 64 69▼▼-10@trip 717-2Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -1058 64 69@trip 71B3
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 64 69
Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jami C Poole 29% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Bionic Saint 6-1, R7: Thru The Vine 20-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Class relief: $7,500 claiming last time, $5,000 claiming today. Trending the wrong way on speed, 69 to 64 to 58.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 343d ago
RECORD Elijah Greenidge from post 5 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 19 rides · 8% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 MNR 6f D Clm 7k b 6th/6 -3L 58 1.8-1 b L Gave way
9/21 MNR 5f D Alw n1x 5th/6 by hd 64 11-1 b L Brisk duel weakened;
9/1 MNR 5f D Clm 7k n2y 3rd/4 -1L 69 3.3-1 b L Drifted squeezed foe
6Beautiful CrazyL. Rivera · A. FarriorRivera · FarriorA70 69 61▲+3@trip 705-2Fair 2-132%▲ Up +370 69 61@trip 70A1
Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 69 61
Jockey L R Rivera 34% career ★ 8-for-34 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 21 · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Henry Mac 2-1, R5: Laos Lucy 15-1, R6: Rogues A Plotting 10-1, R7: Re Markably 9-2 · Trainer R7: Re Markably 9-2
Anthony Farrior takes over the training from Chris Melton. L R Rivera takes over from Israel O Rodriguez in the saddle.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 132 days ago
RECORD L R Rivera from post 6 here: 21 wins, 44 top-3 in 78 rides · 23% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/6 PID 6f D Clm 6k b 4th/7 70 1.5-1 L Set press pace;weaken
9/12 CT 6½f D OC 10k 4th/9 -2L 69 15-1 L Vied inside;fought on
8/20 CT 4½f D OC 10k 4th/7 -4L 61 3.2-1 L Press ins1/8;no kick

7Quick RecoveryJ. Bracho · J. RadosevichBracho · RadosevichA71 76 69►≡@trip 766-1Fair 7-113%► Steady71 76 69 ≡@trip 76A2

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 69–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 76 69

Jockey Jose A Bracho 35% career 5-for-30 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Jeff Radosevich 37% career ★ 8-for-30 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 21 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Onirico 2-1, R8: All That Sass 12-1 · Trainer R3: Henry Mac 2-1, R5: Laos Lucy 15-1, R5: Victory Chant 5-1

Raced in mid-pack early, 3rd at the first call. Beaten 2 lengths for 4th in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at TDN.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 39d ago

RECORD Jose A Bracho from post 7 here: 15 wins, 39 top-3 in 84 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	TDN	5½f D	Clm 5k n2y	4th/7 -2L	71	4.5-1	b L	Even finished 4wide
8/17	TDN	6f D	Clm 5k n1y	Won/6	76	5.5-1	b L	Perfect trip; driving
7/28	TDN	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	4th/10 -1L	69	3.2-1	b L	Set pressured pace;

8Special Beach▼J. Skerrett · J. MahanSkerrett · MahanC58 70 67▼▼-11@trip 7520-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -1158 70 67@trip 75C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 70 67

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Jefferson Skerrett 14% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Joseph P Mahan 23% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Mobil Truth 20-1, R6: Relish The Ride 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Jockey switch: Victor R Fernandez last out, Jefferson Skerrett today. Sheds 5 pounds from its last start.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 5wd bid; faltered. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 166d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MVR	6f D	Clm 4k n2y	7th/8 -5¾L	58	5.5-1	b L	5wd bid; faltered
10/6	TDN	5½f D	Clm 5k n2y	5th/7 -4½L	70	27-1	b L	Closed gap late 5wide
9/7	TDN	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	5th/6 -3½L	67	14-1	b L	Hopped start;no menace

9Timely Secret★V. Fernandez · J. UrietaFernandez · UrietaA73 73 71►≡@trip 779-2Fair 8-110%► Steady73 73 71 ≡@trip 77A★ Best at the trip 77

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–74 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 73 71

★ Best at the trip 77

Jockey Victor R Fernandez 29% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Johanna Urieta 26% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Mor Stormy 6-1, R3: Win Herbie Win 8-1, R5: Honor Quest 6-1 · Trainer R2: Anicetta 20-1, R5: Moon Dreams 12-1, R8: Almost Drilled 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 3F work of its morning on Jul 4 (:36.40), a sign it is training forwardly. Carries 124 pounds, 4 more than last time.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.40 on Jul 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Victor R Fernandez from post 9 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 17 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	TDN	6f D	OC 8k	7th/7 -¾L	73	19-1	b L	Set pace; weakened
9/23	TDN	6f D	Clm 5k n1y	Won/5	73	0.7-1	b L	2w;move;much best
9/7	TDN	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	2nd/6 -2L	71	2.1-1	b L	Carried wide;game 2nd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$13,000

Post

1:39 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#6 · 32%

Claiming $5,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races recently.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #6 Beautiful Crazy (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 70 · 69 · 61. Backup is #7 Quick Recovery at 6-1. Use #5 Fair Trade in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 BEAUTIFUL CRAZY (5-2) — our number agrees.
#6 BEAUTIFUL CRAZY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.4% to their 22.9%).
#5 FAIR TRADE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.1% to their 17.8%).
#9 TIMELY SECRET — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 14.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Timely Secret; pressure from #1 Breezy Dance, #4 Angel Of Harlem; the shape helps #8 Special Beach; and works against #1 Breezy Dance, #2 Miss Classified, #4 Angel Of Harlem.

Lead

9Timely Secret961Breezy Dance884Angel Of Harlem842Miss Classified77

Press

5Fair Trade906Beautiful Crazy907Quick Recovery833No Pay No Hay78

Stalk

none

8Special Beach77

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Timely Secret

Fair Trade

Beautiful Crazy

Breezy Dance

Angel Of Harlem

Quick Recovery

No Pay No Hay

Miss Classified

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Special Beach

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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