Pick sheet

Race 31:11 PM Clm 25000

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Henry Mac, is 37% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #4 Henry Mac ML 2-1 Fair 8-5 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -20 ↕ Up and down 67–91

Jockey L. Rivera · Trainer J. Radosevich · KEE 17: 9-3-0 · Dist 22: 9-2-4 · best fig at 6f dirt 91 · 112 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/13	TDN	1m D	sAlw41500nc	5th/5 -8¼L	67	4.0-1	b L	Weakened lane
6/15	TDN	6f D	sAlw41500nc	4th/6 -6L	91	5.6-1	b L	Vied 2w; no kick
5/29	BTP	6f D	sBabPalMm100k	3rd/8 -2½L	85	20-1	b	Forward btw; evenly

Case: Last out 5th/5 -8¼L in the sAlw41500nc at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 67-91-85. Best at today's distance 91. 9-for-22 at the distance. 9-for-17 at Mahoning Valley. J. Radosevich / L. Rivera.

Knock: Off 112 days.

Contender #8 Ruffin ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -7 ↕ Up and down 64–92 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey G. Corrales · Trainer J. Radosevich · KEE 5: 1-0-1 · Dist 14: 3-3-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 92 · 104 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/21	TDN	6f D	OC 25k n3x	7th/9 -3¼L	74	3.4-1	L	Early pace; weakened
6/1	TDN	6f D	Alw n2x	Won/5	92	1.2-1	L	Repelled bids; gamely
4/27	TDN	6f D	sClm25000	Won/6	87	0.4-1	L	Led throughout;

Case: Last out 7th/9 -3¼L in the OC25000n3x at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 74-92-87. Best at today's distance 92. 3-for-14 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Mahoning Valley. J. Radosevich / G. Corrales.

Knock: Off 104 days. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #5 Startdfromdabottom ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady ★ Best at 6f dirt: 98 Last out 3rd in the Alw32400b at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 81-77-89. Best at today's distance 98. 9-for-30 at the distance. 3-for-8 at Mahoning Valley. D. Wolochuk / M. Cedillo. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey M. Cedillo · Trainer D. Wolochuk · KEE 8: 3-0-2 · Dist 30: 9-5-9 · best fig at 6f dirt 98 · 47 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/16	TDN	6f D	Alw b	3rd/6 -3½L	81	14-1	b L	Chased; outfinishd 4w
9/19	BTP	6½f D	sAlw27000nc	3rd/6 -1½L	77	6.8-1	b L	Vied2w; held show
8/19	TDN	6f D	Alw n1y	3rd/6 -3L	89	3.0-1	b L	Stalked pace; evenly

Longshot #6 Fourdatesforhoco ML 15-1 Fair 15-1 Model #7 ► Steady

Jockey L. Batista · Trainer C. Sweeting · KEE 14: 4-2-5 · Dist 16: 3-2-6 · best fig at 6f dirt 87 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	TDN	6f D	sClm16000n2y	3rd/6 -6L	75	4.8-1	L	3-4w; evenly
8/24	TDN	5½f D	sClm16000	5th/5 -5L	66	7.0-1	L	Led;pressed;used up
5/12	TDN	6f D	Alw n1x	5th/7 -4½L	74	12-1	L	Failed to menace

Case: Last out 3rd in the sClm16000n2y at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 75-66-74. Best at today's distance 87. 3-for-16 at the distance. 4-for-14 at Mahoning Valley. C. Sweeting / L. Batista.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #8 · B #1, #2, #7 · C #3, #6

Angles: #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #8 Lone speed on early pace

R3 Mahoning Valley · Claiming $25,000

1:11 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $30,100 · 8 runners1:11 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $30K · Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Win Herbie WinV. Fernandez · R. ClineFernandez · ClineB74 64 82▼-4↕@trip 908-1Fair 12-17%▼ Down -474 64 82 ↕@trip 90B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–87 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 64 82

Jockey Victor R Fernandez 29% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Robert C Cline 30% career 3-for-25 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Mor Stormy 6-1, R4: Timely Secret 9-2, R5: Honor Quest 6-1 · Trainer R1: Mor Stormy 6-1

★ FASTEST WORKJky 16/71 from post 1

Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Beaten 3½ lengths for 3rd in a 5-horse $25,000 claiming race at BTP.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 19 (5F in 1:00.00), 1 work in 30d

RECORD Victor R Fernandez from post 1 here: 16 wins, 36 top-3 in 71 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BTP	6½f D	sClm25000b	3rd/5 -3½L	74	0.9-1	L	Stlkd;ins turn;willing
8/8	TDN	6f D	sHoneyJay100k	8th/8 -11L	64	15-1		No factor
7/10	BTP	6½f D	sAlw24200b	3rd/6	82	1.1-1	L	Dug 3-w btw;outfinishd

2ScrimperC. Keiser · R. ZielinskiKeiser · ZielinskiB82 81 87▼-3≡@trip 886-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -382 81 87 ≡@trip 88B
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 81–87 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 81 87
Jockey Chelsey Keiser 33% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Richard Zielinski 27% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Jac's Doe Maker 3-1, R7: Mr. Penny Pincher 8-1 · Trainer R1: Rico Suave 5-1, this race: This Time 10-1, R7: Sweet As Sin 12-1, R8: Lizzy's Dream 2-1
2/3 board here
Was running in allowance; today's $25,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Last out was 6th, 8 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse allowance race at TDN.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
TROUBLED TRIP Bumpd repeatedly start last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 25 (5F in 1:01.40), 1 work in 30d
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Chelsey Keiser from post 2 here: 9 wins, 19 top-3 in 43 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/8 TDN 6f D sAlw41500nc 6th/7 -8L 82 44-1 L Bumpd repeatedly start
8/24 TDN 6f D OC 25k n3x 4th/7 -1L 81 3.2-1 L Dueled; outfinished
8/4 TDN 6f D Alw n2x Won/5 87 2.8-1 L 3w;move;drew clear

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/8	TDN	6f D	sAlw41500nc	6th/7 -8L	82	44-1	L	Bumpd repeatedly start
8/24	TDN	6f D	OC 25k n3x	4th/7 -1L	81	3.2-1	L	Dueled; outfinished
8/4	TDN	6f D	Alw n2x	Won/5	87	2.8-1	L	3w;move;drew clear

3Finally FridayR. Feliciano · J. CrumleyFeliciano · CrumleyC76 76 82►@trip 8215-1Fair 20-14%► Steady76 76 82@trip 82C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 82 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 76 82

Jockey R Feliciano 31% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Jevon Crumley 30% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Miss Classified 10-1, R5: Rabbi Rosette 2-1, R6: Bold Buckeye 8-1, R8: Loco Coco 3-1

60D LAYOFFLASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here

Returns from a 139-day break, the biggest in the field. 3 wins from 8 starts at this distance.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 19d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/16	TDN	6f D	Alw n1x	4th/6 -4L	76	5.0-1		Second flight; evenly
6/1	TDN	6f D	sClm50000b	3rd/5 -1L	76	7.4-1		Bid rail upper;leveled
12/16	MVR	6f D	sAlw36200n4l	Won/6 by 1	82	8.7-1	L	Bump start;3w;dueled

4Henry MacL. Rivera · J. RadosevichRivera · RadosevichA67 91 85▼▼-20↕@trip 912-1Fair 8-537%▼▼ Big drop -2067 91 85 ↕@trip 91A1

Card model 37% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -20 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–91 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 91 85

Jockey L R Rivera 34% career ★ 8-for-34 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 21 · Trainer Jeff Radosevich 37% career ★ 8-for-30 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 21 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Beautiful Crazy 5-2, R5: Laos Lucy 15-1, R6: Rogues A Plotting 10-1, R7: Re Markably 9-2 · Trainer R4: Quick Recovery 6-1, R5: Laos Lucy 15-1, R5: Victory Chant 5-1

60D LAYOFF2/4 board here

Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race. Figure of 91 on the record sits above the 86 par.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 12d ago)

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD L R Rivera from post 4 here: 28 wins, 60 top-3 in 119 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/13	TDN	1m D	sAlw41500nc	5th/5 -8¼L	67	4.0-1	b L	Weakened lane
6/15	TDN	6f D	sAlw41500nc	4th/6 -6L	91	5.6-1	b L	Vied 2w; no kick
5/29	BTP	6f D	sBabPalMm100k	3rd/8 -2½L	85	20-1	b	Forward btw; evenly

5Startdfromdabottom★M. Cedillo · D. WolochukCedillo · WolochukA81 77 89►@trip 987-2Fair 6-114%► Steady81 77 89@trip 98A★ Best at the trip 983

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 98 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 77 89

★ Best at the trip 98

Jockey Mauro Cedillo 28% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer David Wolochuk 37% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Pleasure Pearl 8-1, R6: Playing For Keeps 3-1, R8: Bold Sally 12-1 · Trainer R7: Mr. Penny Pincher 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Carries 124 pounds, 4 more than last time. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 7, in :47.80.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 7 (4F in :47.80), 2 works in 30d

RECORD Mauro Cedillo from post 5 here: 12 wins, 52 top-3 in 106 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/16	TDN	6f D	Alw b	3rd/6 -3½L	81	14-1	b L	Chased; outfinishd 4w
9/19	BTP	6½f D	sAlw27000nc	3rd/6 -1½L	77	6.8-1	b L	Vied2w; held show
8/19	TDN	6f D	Alw n1y	3rd/6 -3L	89	3.0-1	b L	Stalked pace; evenly

6FourdatesforhocoLSL. Batista · C. SweetingBatista · SweetingC75 66 74►@trip 8715-1Fair 15-16%► Steady75 66 74@trip 87CLS
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 87 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 66 74
LS
Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 0-for-19 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Craig Sweeting 31% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Greek Boutique 8-1, R4: Breezy Dance 8-1, R5: Oak Mirna 20-1
★ FASTEST WORKJky 29/127 from post 6
Raises its level, $16,000 claiming last time and $25,000 claiming now. 3rd last time, 6 lengths back, in a field of 6.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 53d ago
RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 7 starts here
RECORD Luis Alberto Batista from post 6 here: 29 wins, 60 top-3 in 127 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/5 TDN 6f D sClm16000n2y 3rd/6 -6L 75 4.8-1 L 3-4w; evenly
8/24 TDN 5½f D sClm16000 5th/5 -5L 66 7.0-1 L Led;pressed;used up
5/12 TDN 6f D Alw n1x 5th/7 -4½L 74 12-1 L Failed to menace

7This Time▼E. Barbaran · R. ZielinskiBarbaran · ZielinskiB69 83 79▼▼-11@trip 9010-1Fair 15-17%▼▼ Big drop -1169 83 79@trip 90B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 83 79

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Richard Zielinski 27% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Rico Suave 5-1, R5: Victory Chant 5-1, R6: Eagle Nest 5-1, R8: Youngandfree 4-1 · Trainer R1: Rico Suave 5-1, this race: Scrimper 6-1, R7: Sweet As Sin 12-1, R8: Lizzy's Dream 2-1

CLASS UP

Has won 4 of 10 going today's distance. Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 19d back)

RECORD Erik Barbaran from post 7 here: 31 wins, 72 top-3 in 122 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	TDN	1m D	sClm25000	4th/6 -10L	69	2.5-1	b L	Bmp st;got out;spent
8/24	TDN	5½f D	sClm16000c	Won/5	83	0.5-1	b L	3w;move;going away
7/23	BTP	6f D	OC 16k n1x	4th/6 -2L	79	2.4-1	b L	4p upr; bid; weakened

8Ruffin▲G. Corrales · J. RadosevichCorrales · RadosevichA74 92 87▼-7↕@trip 923-1Fair 5-117%▼ Down -774 92 87 ↕@trip 92A▲ Lone speed on early pace2
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–92 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 92 87
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Gerardo Corrales 37% career 4-for-12 on dirt this meet (33%), #1 of 21 · Trainer Justin Radosevich 37% career ★ 8-for-30 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 21 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Anicetta 20-1, R5: Bonita Dominica 12-1, R7: Rocket Dragon 10-1 · Trainer R2: First Kiss Ever 2-1, R5: Bonita Dominica 12-1, R8: All That Sass 12-1
60D LAYOFF
Tops the field on speed figures, a 92 against 91 for the next best. 104 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 12d ago)
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/21 TDN 6f D OC 25k n3x 7th/9 -3¼L 74 3.4-1 L Early pace; weakened
6/1 TDN 6f D Alw n2x Won/5 92 1.2-1 L Repelled bids; gamely
4/27 TDN 6f D sClm25000 Won/6 87 0.4-1 L Led throughout;

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Claiming $25,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$30,100

Post

1:11 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#4 · 37%

Claiming $25,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Henry Mac (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 67 · 91 · 85. Backup is #8 Ruffin at 3-1. Use #5 Startdfromdabottom in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 HENRY MAC (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 HENRY MAC — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.5% to their 26.1%).
#8 RUFFIN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 19.6%).
#5 STARTDFROMDABOTTOM — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.3% to their 17.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Ruffin; pressure from #5 Startdfromdabottom, #6 Fourdatesforhoco; the shape helps #1 Win Herbie Win, #2 Scrimper, #3 Finally Friday; and works against #5 Startdfromdabottom, #8 Ruffin.

Lead

8Ruffin965Startdfromdabottom88

Press

6Fourdatesforhoco893Finally Friday882Scrimper871Win Herbie Win77

Stalk

7This Time794Henry Mac75

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Ruffin

Fourdatesforhoco

Finally Friday

Startdfromdabottom

Scrimper

This Time

Win Herbie Win

Henry Mac

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Henry Mac

Ruffin

Fourdatesforhoco

Startdfromdabottom

Finally Friday

Scrimper

Win Herbie Win

This Time

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE

50 CENT PICK 3 RACES (3-4-5) / 20 CENT BUCKEYE PICK 6 (RACES 3-8)-60% CARRYOVER

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