Pick sheet

Race 73:03 PM OClm 25000n3x

6F · Dirt · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Re Markably, is 21% to win (morning line implies 14%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #9 Re Markably ML 9-2 Fair 4-1 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -11

Jockey L. Rivera · Trainer A. Farrior · Dist 9: 3-3-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 91 · 24 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	CT	6½f D	OC 25k b	3rd/8 -3¼L	76	0.9-1	L	Circled5w1/8;willingly
8/16	MTH	6f D	OC 40k n2x	Won/5 by ½	85	0.5-1	L	Bid 1/4; wore down foe
7/22	DEL	6f D	ROC	3rd/5 -3¼L	86	2.1-1	L	Rail; mild rally

Case: Last out 3rd in the OC25000b at CT. Last Brisnet figures 76-85-86. Best at today's distance 91. 3-for-9 at the distance. A. Farrior / L. Rivera.

Knock: Never raced at Mahoning Valley.

Contender #7 Dark Vintage ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -6

Jockey A. Bendezu · Trainer S. Becker · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 103 · 49 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	IND	5f T	OC 50k b	3rd/8 -2L	85	2.1-1	b L	Stlk3p;bid late;missed
7/24	PRM	5½f D	OC 17k n1x	2nd/6 -½L	83	0.4-1	b LB	Rail bid;led;overtaken
6/27	FPK	6f D	OC 20k b	Won/6	103	2.5-1	b L	Duel inside; drew off

Case: Last out 3rd in the OC50000b at IND. Last Brisnet figures 85-83-103. Best at today's distance 103. 1-for-1 at the distance. S. Becker / A. Bendezu.

Knock: Never raced at Mahoning Valley.

Use #1 Sprint Out Pass ML 4-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 85–88 Last out 4th/6 -1½L in the Alw41090n4l at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 85-87-88. Best at today's distance 88. 1-for-9 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Mahoning Valley. K. Martinez / D. Haldar. Knock: Off 65 days. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey D. Haldar · Trainer K. Martinez · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 9: 1-5-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 88 · 65 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	PRM	1m D	Alw n4l	4th/6 -1½L	85	5.6-1	b LB	Split far tn;yielded
7/31	PRM	6f D	Alw n1x	2nd/6 -2¾L	87	0.8-1	b LB	Slw st;in back;gaining
7/13	PRM	6f D	OC 15k n1x	3rd/6 -3L	88	2.0-1	b LB	Slow start;5w;gain

Longshot #5 Rocket Dragon ML 10-1 Fair 10-1 Model #7 ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best

Jockey G. Corrales · Trainer N. Rivera · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 19: 2-4-9 · best fig at 6f dirt 88 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	MVR	6f D	Alw n2y	2nd/6 -1½L	88	21-1	L	Rail rally; late gain
9/29	PID	6½f D	OC 40k b	5th/5 -3½L	72	14-1	L	Through after half;
8/14	PID	6½f D	Clm 25k bc	3rd/6 -1½L	82	4.4-1	L	Ranged up;fail to pass

Case: Last out 2nd in the Alw30300n2y at MVR. Last Brisnet figures 88-72-82. Best at today's distance 88. 2-for-19 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Mahoning Valley. N. Rivera / G. Corrales.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #6, #7 · B #1, #4, #9 · C #3, #5, #8, #10

Angles: #3 Rider upgrade (33% vs 29%) cutting back to a sprint · #3 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #8 Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 90 · #10 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R7 Mahoning Valley · Optional Claiming $25,000

3:03 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $27,500 · 10 runners3:03 PM · 6f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $28K · Optional Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Sprint Out PassD. Haldar · K. MartinezHaldar · MartinezB85 87 88►≡@trip 884-1Fair 7-112%► Steady85 87 88 ≡@trip 88B3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 85–88 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 87 88

Jockey David J Haldar 27% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Kelli Martinez 32% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: First Kiss Ever 2-1 · Trainer this race: Kobe's Cause 15-1

60D LAYOFFJky 11/61 from post 1

Was running in allowance; today's allowance optional claiming is an easier level on paper. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 20d ago)

RECORD David J Haldar from post 1 here: 11 wins, 30 top-3 in 61 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	PRM	1m D	Alw n4l	4th/6 -1½L	85	5.6-1	b LB	Split far tn;yielded
7/31	PRM	6f D	Alw n1x	2nd/6 -2¾L	87	0.8-1	b LB	Slw st;in back;gaining
7/13	PRM	6f D	OC 15k n1x	3rd/6 -3L	88	2.0-1	b LB	Slow start;5w;gain

2JupiterB. Salazar · N. RiveraSalazar · RiveraA89 80 78▲▲+13@trip 898-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best89 80 78@trip 89A
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 89 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 80 78
Jockey Becerra Fernando Salazar 24% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Nestor R Rivera 33% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Kickstart 5-2, R5: Pyramid Scheme 9-2, R6: Hidden Access 4-1, R8: Lizzy's Dream 2-1 · Trainer this race: Rocket Dragon 10-1
Finished 2nd in a 7-horse allowance race at TDN, beaten 1 length. Figures are climbing: 78, 80, 89 over its last three.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 10d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 TDN 6f D Alw b 2nd/7 -1L 89 16-1 b L Pressd;led;just failed
9/8 MNR 7f T Clm 25k b 2nd/9 -6L 80 7.1-1 b L Rallied
8/24 TDN 6f D OC 25k n3x 6th/7 -3½L 78 14-1 b L Speed turn; faded

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	TDN	6f D	Alw b	2nd/7 -1L	89	16-1	b L	Pressd;led;just failed
9/8	MNR	7f T	Clm 25k b	2nd/9 -6L	80	7.1-1	b L	Rallied
8/24	TDN	6f D	OC 25k n3x	6th/7 -3½L	78	14-1	b L	Speed turn; faded

3Sweet As Sin▲▼L. Gonzalez · R. ZielinskiGonzalez · ZielinskiC77 83 82▼▼-8@trip 9012-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -877 83 82@trip 90C▲ Rider upgrade (33% vs 29%) cutting back to a sprint▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 83 82

▲ Rider upgrade (33% vs 29%) cutting back to a sprint▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey L A Gonzalez 33% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Richard Zielinski 27% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Swayback Mobil 20-1 · Trainer R1: Rico Suave 5-1, R3: Scrimper 6-1, R3: This Time 10-1, R8: Lizzy's Dream 2-1

Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race. 4th last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 7.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 104 days ago

RECORD L A Gonzalez from post 3 here: 3 wins, 12 top-3 in 33 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	TDN	1m D	Alw nc	4th/7 -10L	77	11-1	L	Failed to menace
9/7	TDN	1m D	Clm 25k c	Won/6 by ½	83	0.7-1	L	3w;bid;carry6p;just up
8/12	TDN	1m D	Alw nc	4th/5 -6½L	82	3.2-1	L	Altered3w; even finish

4Mr. Penny PincherC. Keiser · D. WolochukKeiser · WolochukB84 87 89▼-4≡@trip 908-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -484 87 89 ≡@trip 90B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 84–89 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 87 89

Jockey Chelsey Keiser 33% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer David Wolochuk 37% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Jac's Doe Maker 3-1, R3: Scrimper 6-1 · Trainer R3: Startdfromdabottom 7-2

CLASS DROPJky 13/53 from post 4

Best recent figure of 89 sits right around the 90 par. Last start: 2nd in a 7-horse optional claiming race at TDN.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 179d ago

RECORD Chelsey Keiser from post 4 here: 13 wins, 34 top-3 in 53 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	TDN	6f D	OC 16k	2nd/7	84	2.0-1	b L	2w;move;clear;caught
9/24	TDN	6f D	Clm 25k c	2nd/6 -1½L	87	3.6-1	b L	Pressed2w;no match
9/2	TDN	6f D	Clm 25k	Won/7 by 1½	89	3.4-1	b L	Up in final strides

5Rocket DragonLSG. Corrales · N. RiveraCorrales · RiveraC88 72 82▲▲+9@trip 8810-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best88 72 82@trip 88CLS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 88 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 72 82

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Gerardo Corrales 37% career 4-for-12 on dirt this meet (33%), #1 of 21 · Trainer Nestor R Rivera 33% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Anicetta 20-1, R3: Ruffin 3-1, R5: Bonita Dominica 12-1 · Trainer this race: Jupiter 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call. The Sep 16 work, 4F in :48.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 47d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	MVR	6f D	Alw n2y	2nd/6 -1½L	88	21-1	L	Rail rally; late gain
9/29	PID	6½f D	OC 40k b	5th/5 -3½L	72	14-1	L	Through after half;
8/14	PID	6½f D	Clm 25k bc	3rd/6 -1½L	82	4.4-1	L	Ranged up;fail to pass

6Fivefive Six ChampB. Tapara · J. BernardiniTapara · BernardiniA83 72 84►@trip 955-1Fair 10-110%► Steady83 72 84@trip 95A
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 95 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 72 84
Jockey Brandon Tapara 32% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%), #2 of 21 · Trainer Jay P Bernardini 34% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)
Also today · Trainer R4: Breezy Dance 8-1
★ FASTEST WORK5/8 board here
Has won 7 of 18 going today's distance. Runs for $27,500 after a $13,000 race last out.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 96d ago
RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 8 starts here
RECORD Brandon Tapara from post 6 here: 11 wins, 35 top-3 in 64 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 MNR 6f D RHP 40-60 2nd/5 -3L 83 2.5-1 b L In tight
9/6 MNR 5f D ROC 40-60 4th/6 -4L 72 0.7-1 b L Tired
8/9 MNR 6f D OC 35k b 3rd/8 -3½L 84 9.0-1 b L Chased; even finish

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	MNR	6f D	RHP 40-60	2nd/5 -3L	83	2.5-1	b L	In tight
9/6	MNR	5f D	ROC 40-60	4th/6 -4L	72	0.7-1	b L	Tired
8/9	MNR	6f D	OC 35k b	3rd/8 -3½L	84	9.0-1	b L	Chased; even finish

7Dark VintageA. Bendezu · S. BeckerBendezu · BeckerA85 83 103▼-6@trip 1037-2Fair 4-121%▼ Down -685 83 103@trip 103A2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 103 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 83 103

Jockey Alexander Bendezu 35% career · Trainer Scott Becker 36% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: No Pay No Hay 10-1

CLASS UP

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Tops the field on speed figures, a 103 against 91 for the next best.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on May 8 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	IND	5f T	OC 50k b	3rd/8 -2L	85	2.1-1	b L	Stlk3p;bid late;missed
7/24	PRM	5½f D	OC 17k n1x	2nd/6 -½L	83	0.4-1	b LB	Rail bid;led;overtaken
6/27	FPK	6f D	OC 20k b	Won/6	103	2.5-1	b L	Duel inside; drew off

8Kobe's Cause▼J. Stokes · K. MartinezStokes · MartinezC77 78 65▲+3@trip 8015-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +377 78 65@trip 80C▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 90

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 78 65

▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 90

Jockey J Stokes 25% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Kelli Martinez 32% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Trainer this race: Sprint Out Pass 4-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Sheds 4 pounds from its last start. Moves up from $20,000 claiming to allowance optional claiming.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 3 (5F in :59.80), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	PRM	6f D	sClm20000	2nd/7 -4L	77	4.7-1	b LB	3wbid;gaining to wire
9/7	PRM	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	4th/6 -4L	78	36-1	b LB	Duel;no match past1/4
8/16	PRM	6f D	Alw s	4th/5 -6½L	65	1.6-1	b LB	Hop st;3w;no response

9Re MarkablyL. Rivera · A. FarriorRivera · FarriorB76 85 86▼▼-11@trip 919-2Fair 4-121%▼▼ Big drop -1176 85 86@trip 91B1

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 85 86

Jockey L R Rivera 34% career ★ 8-for-34 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 21 · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Henry Mac 2-1, R4: Beautiful Crazy 5-2, R5: Laos Lucy 15-1, R6: Rogues A Plotting 10-1 · Trainer R4: Beautiful Crazy 5-2

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Trending the wrong way on speed, 86 to 85 to 76. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Sep 17 (:48.00), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Circled5w1/8; willingly last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 17; 1 work in 30d

RECORD L R Rivera from post 9 here: 6 wins, 11 top-3 in 22 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	CT	6½f D	OC 25k b	3rd/8 -3¼L	76	0.9-1	L	Circled5w1/8;willingly
8/16	MTH	6f D	OC 40k n2x	Won/5 by ½	85	0.5-1	L	Bid 1/4; wore down foe
7/22	DEL	6f D	ROC	3rd/5 -3¼L	86	2.1-1	L	Rail; mild rally

10Thru the Vine▼E. Greenidge · G. JohnsonGreenidge · JohnsonC80 66 73▲▲+11@trip 8820-1Fair 99-11%▲▲ Big jump +1180 66 73@trip 88C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 66 73
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Gary L Johnson 31% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Bionic Saint 6-1, R4: Fair Trade 7-2 · Trainer R6: Relish The Ride 20-1
★ FASTEST WORK5/7 board here
Purse goes from $13,000 to $27,500, a step up. 2nd of 14 at 4F on Jun 27, in :47.60.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 274d ago
RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 7 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 MNR 6f D RHP 40-60 4th/5 -5¼L 80 13-1 L No threat
9/7 TDN 1m D Clm 25k 6th/6 -8½L 66 48-1 L No impact
7/28 TDN 1m D Clm 25k 4th/5 -7½L 73 31-1 L Through after half

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	MNR	6f D	RHP 40-60	4th/5 -5¼L	80	13-1	L	No threat
9/7	TDN	1m D	Clm 25k	6th/6 -8½L	66	48-1	L	No impact
7/28	TDN	1m D	Clm 25k	4th/5 -7½L	73	31-1	L	Through after half

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $25,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$27,500

Post

3:03 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#9 · 21%

Claiming $25,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #9 Re Markably (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 76 · 85 · 86. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Dark Vintage at 7-2. Use #1 Sprint Out Pass in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 DARK VINTAGE (7-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
#7 DARK VINTAGE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.2% to their 17.5%).
#9 RE MARKABLY — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.8%, they've got 14.3%.
#1 SPRINT OUT PASS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.4% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#9 RE MARKABLY — we make it 16.8%, the morning line works out to 14.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Fivefive Six Champ; pressure from #4 Mr. Penny Pincher, #7 Dark Vintage; the shape helps #2 Jupiter, #4 Mr. Penny Pincher, #5 Rocket Dragon; and works against #6 Fivefive Six Champ.

Lead

6Fivefive Six Champ97

Press

4Mr. Penny Pincher977Dark Vintage972Jupiter92

Stalk

5Rocket Dragon899Re Markably88

10Thru The Vine908Kobe's Cause873Sweet As Sin751Sprint Out Pass65

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Mr. Penny Pincher

Fivefive Six Champ

Dark Vintage

Jupiter

Rocket Dragon

Re Markably

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Kobe's Cause

Thru The Vine

Sweet As Sin

Sprint Out Pass

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