Pick sheet

Race 52:07 PM Md 7500Late Pick 4 starts

5.5F · Dirt · 12 entered. Our model's top pick, Rabbi Rosette, is 29% to win (morning line implies 25%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Rabbi Rosette ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -12 ★ Best at 5½f dirt: 67 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey R. Feliciano · Trainer B. Feliciano · Dist 5: 0-1-1 · best fig at 5½f dirt 67 · 26 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	TDN	1m D	fsMdSpWt	4th/6 -12L	49	9.5-1	b L	Failed to respond
9/22	TDN	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/7 -4L	62	2.1-1	b L	Pressed; outfinished
8/17	TDN	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/6 -4L	67	9.8-1	b L	Led; drifted; no match

Case: Last out 4th/6 -12L in the fsMdSpWt at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 49-62-67. Best at today's distance 67. 0-for-5 at the distance. B. Feliciano / R. Feliciano.

Knock: Never raced at Mahoning Valley. 0-for-5 at the distance.

Contender #2 Pyramid Scheme ML 9-2 Fair 6-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +6 · career best ▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 67

Jockey B. Salazar · Trainer S. Morales · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-1-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 54 · 26 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	TDN	5½f D	fsMd7500	2nd/6 by hd	54	5.3-1	L	2w;bid turn;2nd best
9/22	TDN	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/7 -10L	49	27-1	L	Brief speed
8/31	TDN	1m D	fsMdSpWt	8th/9 -24L	42	17-1	L	Through after half

Case: Last out 2nd in the fsMd7500 at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 54-49-42. Best at today's distance 54. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Mahoning Valley. S. Morales / B. Salazar.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #7 Honor Quest ML 6-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 51–52 ▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 67 Last out 3rd in the fsMd7500 at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 52-51-52. Best at today's distance 52. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-4 at Mahoning Valley. S. Morales / V. Fernandez. Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance.

Jockey V. Fernandez · Trainer S. Morales · KEE 4: 0-0-1 · Dist 3: 0-0-1 · best fig at 5½f dirt 52 · 26 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	TDN	5½f D	fsMd7500	3rd/6 -2¾L	52	5.2-1	L	Improved late 3 wide;
9/22	TDN	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/7 -11L	51	16-1	L	No factor
8/31	TDN	1m D	fsMdSpWt	5th/9 -21L	52	14-1	b L	Bmp st; passed tiring

Longshot #10 Bonita Dominica ML 12-1 Fair 12-1 Model #6 ▲ Up +4 ▼ Best fig 38 is 5+ under today's par 67

Jockey G. Corrales · Trainer J. Radosevich · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 38 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsMd12500	6th/9 -1L	31	6.5-1	b L	Pace; weakened late
9/17	TDN	6f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/7 -18L	15	6.4-1	b L	Fracts gate;no factor
8/13	TDN	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/9 -10L	38	2.1-1	L	Outrun

Case: Last out 6th/9 -1L in the fsMd12500 at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 31-15-38. Best at today's distance 38. 0-for-1 at the distance. J. Radosevich / G. Corrales.

Knock: Never raced at Mahoning Valley. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #6, #7 · B #1, #5, #8 · C #3, #9, #10, #11, #12 · ? #4 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 50 is 5+ under today's par 67 · #2 Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 67 · #3 Best fig 40 is 5+ under today's par 67 · #5 Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 67 · #6 Lone speed on early pace · #7 Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 67 · #8 Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 67 · #9 Best fig 42 is 5+ under today's par 67 · #10 Best fig 38 is 5+ under today's par 67 · #11 Best fig 45 is 5+ under today's par 67 · #12 Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 67

R5 Mahoning Valley · Maiden Claiming $7,500

2:07 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $16,100 · 12 runners2:07 PM · 5½f Dirt · 12 runners

Upcoming $16K · Maiden Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Moon Dreams▼L. Negron · J. UrietaNegron · UrietaB41 30 50►@trip 5012-1Fair 15-16%► Steady41 30 50@trip 50B▼ Best fig 50 is 5+ under today's par 67

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 50 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 41 30 50

▼ Best fig 50 is 5+ under today's par 67

Jockey Luis Negron 33% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Johanna Urieta 26% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Trainer R2: Anicetta 20-1, R4: Timely Secret 9-2, R8: Almost Drilled 15-1

4/4 board here

A 50 is the high figure lately, short of the 67 par. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (0 wins)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	TDN	5½f D	fsMd7500	6th/6 -2½L	41	4.3-1	L	Pace; gave way late
5/7	TDN	6f D	fsMdSpWt	8th/8 -14L	30	30-1	b L	Inside speed; stopped;
4/20	TDN	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/6 -4¾L	50	4.0-1	b L	Through after 3furs

2Pyramid Scheme▼B. Salazar · S. MoralesSalazar · MoralesA54 49 42▲+6@trip 549-2Fair 6-113%▲ Up +6 · career best54 49 42@trip 54A▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 672
Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 54 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 49 42
▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 67
Jockey Becerra Fernando Salazar 24% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Saul M Morales 31% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Kickstart 5-2, R6: Hidden Access 4-1, R7: Jupiter 8-1, R8: Lizzy's Dream 2-1 · Trainer this race: Honor Quest 6-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Finished 2nd in a 6-horse maiden claiming $7,500 race at TDN, beaten a head. Has moved up each time out, 42 to 49 to 54.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 14 (3F in :36.00), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 TDN 5½f D fsMd7500 2nd/6 by hd 54 5.3-1 L 2w;bid turn;2nd best
9/22 TDN 5½f D fsMdSpWt 7th/7 -10L 49 27-1 L Brief speed
8/31 TDN 1m D fsMdSpWt 8th/9 -24L 42 17-1 L Through after half
3Mobil Truth▼J. Skerrett · R. GenoveseSkerrett · GenoveseC34 40 39►@trip 4020-1Fair 50-12%► Steady34 40 39@trip 40C▼ Best fig 40 is 5+ under today's par 67
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 40 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 34 40 39
▼ Best fig 40 is 5+ under today's par 67
Jockey Jefferson Skerrett 14% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Richard L Genovese 19% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Special Beach 20-1, R6: Relish The Ride 20-1
LASIX 1ST
New trainer: Kristina M Tumblin had it last time, Richard L Genovese now. Drops from maiden claiming $12,500 to maiden claiming $7,500.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 26 days ago
RECORD Jefferson Skerrett from post 3 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 17 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/28 TDN 6f D fsMd12500 5th/6 -16L 34 60-1 b No threat
9/14 TDN 5½f D fsMd12500 6th/10 -12L 40 18-1 b No impact
8/24 TDN 6f D fsMd12500 5th/9 -11L 39 8.9-1 b Outside; faded lane
4Bold SuzyM. Anderson · J. LopezAnderson · Lopez?20-1Fair 50-12%—Debut?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier ?
Jockey McKenna Anderson 22% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jacinto Lopez 26% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet
Also today · Trainer R8: Bold Sally 12-1
Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Bold Red and Mongoo breeding. Debut for a trainer who is 0% with first-timers, over 23 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Aug 31; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
First start. By Bold Red out of Mongoo (Family Calling)
Trainer J. Lopez: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 35% in the money (23 starts)
Jockey M. Anderson in sprints: 0 wins from 38 (0%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/4 TDN 4f :51.80 breezing 1/3 ● bullet
9/24 TDN 3f :41.40 breezing 15/16 from gate
9/10 TDN 3f :39.20 breezing 9/10
8/31 TDN 3f :39.20 breezing 1/4 ● bullet
4/10 TDN 3f :41.40 breezing 8/9

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	TDN	6f D	fsMd12500	5th/6 -16L	34	60-1	b	No threat
9/14	TDN	5½f D	fsMd12500	6th/10 -12L	40	18-1	b	No impact
8/24	TDN	6f D	fsMd12500	5th/9 -11L	39	8.9-1	b	Outside; faded lane

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/4	TDN	4f	:51.80	breezing	1/3	● bullet
9/24	TDN	3f	:41.40	breezing	15/16	from gate
9/10	TDN	3f	:39.20	breezing	9/10
8/31	TDN	3f	:39.20	breezing	1/4	● bullet
4/10	TDN	3f	:41.40	breezing	8/9

5Pleasure Pearl▼M. Cedillo · I. CalderonCedillo · CalderonB47 45 46▲+3@trip 478-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +3 · career best47 45 46@trip 47B▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 67

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 47 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 45 46

▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 67

Jockey Mauro Cedillo 28% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Ivan Calderon 28% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Startdfromdabottom 7-2, R6: Playing For Keeps 3-1, R8: Bold Sally 12-1

Changes barns, from Megan Fadlovich to Ivan Calderon. Class relief: maiden claiming $12,500 last time, maiden claiming $7,500 today.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled lost jock st. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 25d ago)

RECORD Mauro Cedillo from post 5 here: 12 wins, 52 top-3 in 106 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsMd12500	DNF	—	3.6-1	b L	Stumbled lost jock st
9/14	TDN	5½f D	fsMd12500	2nd/10 -4L	47	3.6-1	b L	Pressed 2w; 2nd best
8/24	TDN	6f D	fsMd12500	2nd/9 -5L	45	3.8-1	L	Pressed2w;held 2nd

6Rabbi Rosette▲★R. Feliciano · B. FelicianoFeliciano · FelicianoA49 62 67▼▼-12@trip 672-1Fair 5-229%▼▼ Big drop -1249 62 67@trip 67A▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 671

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 62 67

▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 67

Jockey R Feliciano 31% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Benny R Feliciano 29% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Finally Friday 15-1, R4: Miss Classified 10-1, R6: Bold Buckeye 8-1, R8: Loco Coco 3-1 · Trainer R4: Miss Classified 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going a mile. Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $7,500 is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 49d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	TDN	1m D	fsMdSpWt	4th/6 -12L	49	9.5-1	b L	Failed to respond
9/22	TDN	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/7 -4L	62	2.1-1	b L	Pressed; outfinished
8/17	TDN	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/6 -4L	67	9.8-1	b L	Led; drifted; no match

7Honor Quest▼V. Fernandez · S. MoralesFernandez · MoralesA52 51 52►≡@trip 526-1Fair 8-112%► Steady52 51 52 ≡@trip 52A▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 673

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 51–52 · Best fig at today's trip 52 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 51 52

▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 67

Jockey Victor R Fernandez 29% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Saul M Morales 31% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Mor Stormy 6-1, R3: Win Herbie Win 8-1, R4: Timely Secret 9-2 · Trainer this race: Pyramid Scheme 9-2

Jky 12/53 from post 7

Still looking for the first win after 9 starts. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 52 against a 67 par.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 10d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Victor R Fernandez from post 7 here: 12 wins, 27 top-3 in 53 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	TDN	5½f D	fsMd7500	3rd/6 -2¾L	52	5.2-1	L	Improved late 3 wide;
9/22	TDN	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/7 -11L	51	16-1	L	No factor
8/31	TDN	1m D	fsMdSpWt	5th/9 -21L	52	14-1	b L	Bmp st; passed tiring

8Laos Lucy▼L. Rivera · J. RadosevichRivera · RadosevichB51 38 46▲▲+11@trip 5115-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best51 38 46@trip 51B▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 67

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 51 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 38 46

▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 67

Jockey L R Rivera 34% career ★ 8-for-34 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 21 · Trainer Jeff Radosevich 37% career ★ 8-for-30 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 21 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Henry Mac 2-1, R4: Beautiful Crazy 5-2, R6: Rogues A Plotting 10-1, R7: Re Markably 9-2 · Trainer R3: Henry Mac 2-1, R4: Quick Recovery 6-1, this race: Victory Chant 5-1

Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call. Carries 124 pounds, 5 more than last time.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD L R Rivera from post 8 here: 15 wins, 25 top-3 in 57 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	TDN	5½f D	fsMd7500	4th/6 -2¾L	51	18-1	L	Shifted 4w; leveled
9/17	TDN	6f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/8 -8¼L	38	8.5-1	L	Brief speed
8/13	TDN	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/8 -13L	46	20-1	L	Veered in;tight early

9Twotwentyfivesouth▼J. Simpson · L. Loudin-SmithSimpson · Loudin-SmithC23 31 42▼▼-10@trip 2230-1Fair 99-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1023 31 42@trip 22C▼ Best fig 42 is 5+ under today's par 67
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 22 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 23 31 42
▼ Best fig 42 is 5+ under today's par 67
Jockey Jason Simpson 32% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Lori Loudin-Smith 16% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Kingdom Of Fear 10-1
0/5 board here
Figures have slipped: 42, 31, 23 over its last three. A big drop, maiden special weight to maiden claiming $7,500, and worth asking why.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
TROUBLED TRIP Asked 6wd; no response last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 44d ago
RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/21 MVR 6f D fsMdSpWt 11th/11 -18L 23 95-1 L Asked 6wd; no response
10/8 TDN 6f D fsMdSpWt 6th/7 -14L 31 56-1 L No factor
9/28 TDN 6f D fsMd12500 4th/6 -10L 42 41-1 b L Failed to menace
10Bonita Dominica▼LSG. Corrales · J. RadosevichCorrales · RadosevichC31 15 38▲+4@trip 3812-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +431 15 38@trip 38C▼ Best fig 38 is 5+ under today's par 67LS
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 38 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 31 15 38
▼ Best fig 38 is 5+ under today's par 67LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Gerardo Corrales 37% career 4-for-12 on dirt this meet (33%), #1 of 21 · Trainer Justin Radosevich 37% career ★ 8-for-30 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 21 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Anicetta 20-1, R3: Ruffin 3-1, R7: Rocket Dragon 10-1 · Trainer R2: First Kiss Ever 2-1, R3: Ruffin 3-1, R8: All That Sass 12-1
Best recent figure is 38, well under the 67 par for this level. Last out was 6th, 1 length behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $12,500 race at TDN.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 61d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/5 TDN 6f D fsMd12500 6th/9 -1L 31 6.5-1 b L Pace; weakened late
9/17 TDN 6f D fsMdSpWt 7th/7 -18L 15 6.4-1 b L Fracts gate;no factor
8/13 TDN 5½f D fsMdSpWt 7th/9 -10L 38 2.1-1 L Outrun

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	MVR	6f D	fsMdSpWt	11th/11 -18L	23	95-1	L	Asked 6wd; no response
10/8	TDN	6f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/7 -14L	31	56-1	L	No factor
9/28	TDN	6f D	fsMd12500	4th/6 -10L	42	41-1	b L	Failed to menace

11Oak Mirna▼L. Batista · J. AtalaBatista · AtalaC36 34 44▼-5@trip 4420-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -536 34 44@trip 44C▼ Best fig 45 is 5+ under today's par 67

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 44 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 36 34 44

▼ Best fig 45 is 5+ under today's par 67

Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 0-for-19 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jose Atala 22% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Greek Boutique 8-1, R3: Fourdatesforhoco 15-1, R4: Breezy Dance 8-1

0/4 board here

Luis Alberto Batista takes over from Humberto Haldar in the saddle. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 158d back)

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	MVR	6f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/11 -14L	36	62-1	L	Bmp'd start; some run
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsMd12500	5th/9 -4½L	34	18-1	L	Bmp st; 3/8pole
9/14	TDN	5½f D	fsMd12500	4th/10 -9L	44	10-1	L	4w; even effort

12Victory Chant▼E. Barbaran · J. RadosevichBarbaran · RadosevichC36 235-1Fair 8-111%—36 23C▼ Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 67
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 36 23
▼ Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 67
Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jeff Radosevich 37% career ★ 8-for-30 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 21 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Rico Suave 5-1, R3: This Time 10-1, R6: Eagle Nest 5-1, R8: Youngandfree 4-1 · Trainer R3: Henry Mac 2-1, R4: Quick Recovery 6-1, this race: Laos Lucy 15-1
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE
Jeff Radosevich takes over the training from Valerie K Shanyfelt. Jockey switch: S Jimenez last out, Erik Barbaran today.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 13d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/5 TDN 6f D fsMd12500 4th/9 -3L 36 23-1 L Bore out;bmp st;evenly
9/17 TDN 6f D fsMdSpWt 8th/8 -14L 23 14-1 L Brief speed; stopped;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsMd12500	4th/9 -3L	36	23-1	L	Bore out;bmp st;evenly
9/17	TDN	6f D	fsMdSpWt	8th/8 -14L	23	14-1	L	Brief speed; stopped;

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $7,500

Field

12 runners

Purse

$16,100

Post

2:07 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#6 · 29%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.62

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #6 Rabbi Rosette (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 49 · 62 · 67. Backup is #2 Pyramid Scheme at 9-2. Use #7 Honor Quest in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 RABBI ROSETTE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#6 RABBI ROSETTE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.7% to their 25.1%).
#2 PYRAMID SCHEME — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.6% to their 13.7%).
#12 VICTORY CHANT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (12.1% to their 12.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Moon Dreams; pressure from #10 Bonita Dominica, #6 Rabbi Rosette; the shape helps #3 Mobil Truth, #7 Honor Quest, #8 Laos Lucy; and works against #1 Moon Dreams, #4 Bold Suzy, #5 Pleasure Pearl.

Lead

1Moon Dreams8610Bonita Dominica856Rabbi Rosette845Pleasure Pearl

Press

none

Stalk

2Pyramid Scheme8112Victory Chant80

8Laos Lucy807Honor Quest7811Oak Mirna763Mobil Truth72

No style yet

9Twotwentyfivesouth724Bold Suzy

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Moon Dreams

Bonita Dominica

Rabbi Rosette

Pyramid Scheme

Victory Chant

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Oak Mirna

Honor Quest

Laos Lucy

Mobil Truth

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE

50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 5-6-7-8) 50% CARRYOVER

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.