Pick sheet

Race 212:43 PM Alw 33700n2l

6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, First Kiss Ever, is 31% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 First Kiss Ever ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -42 ▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 74 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (15 vs 53)

Jockey D. Haldar · Trainer J. Radosevich · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 53 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n2l	10th/10 -24L	15	3.3-1	L	Reared; rank start
2/26	MVR	6f D	fsAlw33700n2l	5th/7 -1L	53	3.0-1	L	Duel;2p;faded
2/4	MVR	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/6	61	0.6-1	L	2w; dueled; drew away

Case: Last out 10th/10 -24L in the fsAlw35800n2l at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 15-53-61. Best at today's distance 53. 0-for-2 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Mahoning Valley. J. Radosevich / D. Haldar.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Contender #1 Miss Lora Ann ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best ▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey S. Pauly · Trainer Y. Orantes · KEE 2: 1-1-0 · Dist 8: 1-4-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 57 · 25 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	BTP	5½f D	fsAlw21300n2l	2nd/5	60	4.8-1	b L	Duel;2p;clr;caught led
9/22	TDN	5½f D	fsClm16000n2l	3rd/6 -7½L	51	0.6-1	b L	Improved upper 2w
9/4	BTP	5½f D	fsAlw21300n2l	2nd/5 -1½L	49	0.6-1	b L	Rated; 3wbid; at bay

Case: Last out 2nd in the fsAlw21300n2l at BTP. Last Brisnet figures 60-51-49. Best at today's distance 57. 1-for-8 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Mahoning Valley. Y. Orantes / S. Pauly.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #7 Playkoz ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady ▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 74 Last out 2nd in the fsAlw21300n2l at BTP. Last Brisnet figures 47-40-57. Best at today's distance 57. 1-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Mahoning Valley. F. Silva / A. Diaz. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey A. Diaz · Trainer F. Silva · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · Dist 3: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 57 · 40 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/23	BTP	5½f D	fsAlw21300n2l	2nd/7 -7¾L	47	33-1	b L	Bmp;knifed ins;rallied
9/4	BTP	5½f D	fsAlw21300n2l	4th/5 -4½L	40	7.9-1	b L	Never threatened
8/21	BTP	6f D	fsMd25000	Won/5 by 1	57	2.0-1	b L	2-w; led; drew clear

Longshot #5 Kingdom of Fear ML 10-1 Fair 12-1 Model #6 ▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey J. Simpson · Trainer K. Tumblin · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 53 · 25 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	TDN	6f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/7 by 4	53	12-1		Burst 2w; clear

Case: Last out won in the fsMdSpWt at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 53. Best at today's distance 53. 1-for-1 at the distance. K. Tumblin / J. Simpson.

Knock: Never raced at Mahoning Valley.

★ Distance horse: #4 Bionic Saint (6-1) has the best figure in the field at 6f dirt: 58 from 7 tries, record at the distance 15: 0-3-3. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #6 · B #3, #5, #7 · C #2

Angles: #1 Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #2 Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #3 Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #3 Lone speed on early pace · #4 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #5 Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #6 Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #6 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (15 vs 53) · #7 Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 74

R2 Mahoning Valley · State-Bred Allowance · $33,700 purse

12:43 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $33,700 · 7 runners12:43 PM · 6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $34K · State-Bred Allowance · $33,700 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #4 Bionic Saint (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 58 from 7 tries. Not in our top three.

1Miss Lora Ann▼S. Pauly · Y. OrantesPauly · OrantesA60 51 49▲▲+9@trip 575-2Fair 3-125%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best60 51 49@trip 57A▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 742

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 57 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 51 49

▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey Summer Pauly 26% career · Trainer Yoni R Orantes 26% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Blazing Burroughs 5-2, R8: Rivers Angel 5-2

★ FASTEST WORK

Raises its level, allowance last time and allowance now. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 60 against a 74 par.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 23 (3F in :36.60), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	BTP	5½f D	fsAlw21300n2l	2nd/5	60	4.8-1	b L	Duel;2p;clr;caught led
9/22	TDN	5½f D	fsClm16000n2l	3rd/6 -7½L	51	0.6-1	b L	Improved upper 2w
9/4	BTP	5½f D	fsAlw21300n2l	2nd/5 -1½L	49	0.6-1	b L	Rated; 3wbid; at bay

2Anicetta▼G. Corrales · J. UrietaCorrales · UrietaC45 46 54▲+5↕@trip 4620-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +545 46 54 ↕@trip 46C▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 74

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 20–54 · Best fig at today's trip 46 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 45 46 54

▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey Gerardo Corrales 37% career 4-for-12 on dirt this meet (33%), #1 of 21 · Trainer Johanna Urieta 26% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Ruffin 3-1, R5: Bonita Dominica 12-1, R7: Rocket Dragon 10-1 · Trainer R4: Timely Secret 9-2, R5: Moon Dreams 12-1, R8: Almost Drilled 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race. Figures have slipped: 54, 46, 45 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 3; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MVR	1m D	fsAlw33700n2l	5th/8 -6½L	45	43-1	b L	Bid 3/8; flattened out
9/30	TDN	6f D	fsClm12500n2l	5th/6 -8½L	46	19-1	b L	Brief speed
9/14	TDN	5½f D	fsMd12500	Won/10	54	2.9-1	b L	Pace;clear;driving

3Greek Boutique▼▲L. Batista · O. RomeroBatista · RomeroB56 55 45▲▲+10@trip 558-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +1056 55 45@trip 55B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 74▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Best fig at today's trip 55 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 55 45

▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 74▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 0-for-19 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Oscar Romero 26% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Fourdatesforhoco 15-1, R4: Breezy Dance 8-1, R5: Oak Mirna 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK

A 56 is the high figure lately, short of the 74 par. Has moved up each time out, 45 to 55 to 56.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Shuffled 3/8; came back), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on May 29; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Luis Alberto Batista from post 3 here: 20 wins, 59 top-3 in 147 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MVR	1m D	fsAlw33700n2l	4th/8 -4L	56	24-1	L	Shuffled 3/8;came back
9/30	TDN	6f D	fsClm12500n2l	2nd/6 -4L	55	14-1	L	Early pace;no match
9/22	TDN	5½f D	fsClm16000n2l	4th/6 -8½L	45	3.3-1	b L	Chased2w; weakened

4Bionic Saint▼★E. Greenidge · R. FaulknerGreenidge · FaulknerA58 47 19▲▲+23↕@trip 586-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +2358 47 19 ↕@trip 58A▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 74★ Best at the trip 58

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +23 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 19–58 · Best fig at today's trip 58 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 47 19

▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 74★ Best at the trip 58

Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Rodney C Faulkner 21% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Fair Trade 7-2, R7: Thru The Vine 20-1

A step up in company: $10,000 claiming before, allowance today. Last out was 2nd, 2¾ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $10,000 claiming race at MVR.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Sqz'd st; 6wd rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 172 days ago

RECORD Elijah Greenidge from post 4 here: 3 wins, 7 top-3 in 15 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MVR	6f D	fsClm10000n2l	2nd/8 -2¾L	58	11-1	b L	Sqz'd st; 6wd rally
9/30	TDN	6f D	fsClm12500n2l	4th/6 -13L	47	6.0-1	L	5w; dropped back turn
9/15	TDN	1m D	fsAlw35800n2l	10th/10 -18L	19	19-1	L	Through early;

5Kingdom of Fear▼LSJ. Simpson · K. TumblinSimpson · TumblinB53@trip 5310-1Fair 12-18%—53@trip 53B▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 74LS
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 53 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 53
▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 74LS
Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jason Simpson 32% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Kristina M Tumblin 21% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R5: Twotwentyfivesouth 30-1 · Trainer R8: Youngandfree 4-1
WON LASTJky 5/31 from post 5
Won last out in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at TDN. Picks up 5 pounds from its last start.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 32d back)
RECORD Jason Simpson from post 5 here: 5 wins, 13 top-3 in 31 rides · 8% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/8 TDN 6f D fsMdSpWt Won/7 by 4 53 12-1 Burst 2w; clear

6First Kiss Ever▼▼D. Haldar · J. RadosevichHaldar · RadosevichA15 53 61▼▼-42@trip 532-1Fair 5-231%▼▼ Big drop -4215 53 61@trip 53A▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 74▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (15 vs 53)1

Card model 31% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -42 · Best fig at today's trip 53 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 15 53 61

▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 74▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (15 vs 53)

Jockey David J Haldar 27% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Justin Radosevich 37% career ★ 8-for-30 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 21

Also today · Jockey R7: Sprint Out Pass 4-1 · Trainer R3: Ruffin 3-1, R5: Bonita Dominica 12-1, R8: All That Sass 12-1

Jockey switch: Gerardo Corrales last out, David J Haldar today. Trending the wrong way on speed, 61 to 53 to 15.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Aug 29; 1 work in 30d

RECORD David J Haldar from post 6 here: 3 wins, 18 top-3 in 60 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n2l	10th/10 -24L	15	3.3-1	L	Reared; rank start
2/26	MVR	6f D	fsAlw33700n2l	5th/7 -1L	53	3.0-1	L	Duel;2p;faded
2/4	MVR	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/6	61	0.6-1	L	2w; dueled; drew away

7Playkoz▼A. Diaz · F. SilvaDiaz · SilvaB47 40 57►@trip 573-1Fair 5-117%► Steady47 40 57@trip 57B▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 743

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 57 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 40 57

▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey Angel I Diaz 33% career 3-for-25 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Fernando Silva 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Angel Of Harlem 12-1

Changes barns, from Ramon Salcedo to Fernando Silva. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 184d ago

RECORD Angel I Diaz from post 7 here: 15 wins, 46 top-3 in 119 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/23	BTP	5½f D	fsAlw21300n2l	2nd/7 -7¾L	47	33-1	b L	Bmp;knifed ins;rallied
9/4	BTP	5½f D	fsAlw21300n2l	4th/5 -4½L	40	7.9-1	b L	Never threatened
8/21	BTP	6f D	fsMd25000	Won/5 by 1	57	2.0-1	b L	2-w; led; drew clear

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 2

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $33,700 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$33,700

Post

12:43 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#6 · 31%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 First Kiss Ever (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 15 · 53 · 61. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #1 Miss Lora Ann at 5-2. Use #7 Playkoz in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 FIRST KISS EVER (2-1) — our number agrees.
#6 FIRST KISS EVER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.1% to their 26.4%).
#1 MISS LORA ANN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.5% to their 22.6%).
#7 PLAYKOZ — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.1% to their 19.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Anicetta; pressure from #6 First Kiss Ever, #1 Miss Lora Ann; the shape helps #1 Miss Lora Ann, #3 Greek Boutique, #4 Bionic Saint; and works against #2 Anicetta, #6 First Kiss Ever.

Lead

2Anicetta816First Kiss Ever54

Press

1Miss Lora Ann883Greek Boutique844Bionic Saint83

Stalk

5Kingdom Of Fear82

7Playkoz80

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Miss Lora Ann

Greek Boutique

Bionic Saint

Kingdom Of Fear

Anicetta

First Kiss Ever

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Playkoz

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