| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/30 | TDN | 6f D | sClm16000n2x | Won/7 | 83 | 2.2-1 | b L | Full of run; much best |
| 9/10 | TDN | 5½f D | sClm16000n2x | 4th/6 -½L | 73 | 11-1 | b L | 3w bid; needed more |
| 8/24 | TDN | 6f D | sClm16000n2x | 7th/8 -9½L | 56 | 5.1-1 | b L | Through early |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/3 | BTP | 6½f D | sClm25000b | Won/5 | 79 | 3.3-1 | b L | Pressurd pace ins;drvg |
| 8/20 | BTP | 6½f D | sClm15000b | 2nd/5 | 75 | 1.3-1 | b L | 2w;3w upr;wknd late |
| 7/23 | BTP | 6f D | OC 16k n1x | 5th/6 -5¼L | 55 | 10-1 | b L | 4p into lane; faded |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/8 | TDN | 6f D | sClm50000 | 5th/8 -2¼L | 75 | 3.4-1 | b L | Failed to sustain bid |
| 7/20 | TDN | 6f D | sClm50000 | 2nd/7 -2½L | 87 | 2.6-1 | b L | Pace;altrd5p;2nd best |
| 6/16 | TDN | 6f D | Alw n1x | Won/6 | 87 | 1.2-1 | b L | Drew off; handily |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | TDN | 6f D | sClm50000 | 6th/7 -7¾L | 66 | 11-1 | b L | Hopped st;thru early |
| 8/11 | TDN | 6f D | sClm50000 | 6th/6 -3L | 75 | 5.1-1 | b L | Bmp 1/4 pole; weakened |
| 7/17 | BTP | 1 1/16 T | sHorizon75k | 4th/7 -3½L | 62 | 1.6-1 | b | Tracked 3p; weakened; |
1Rogues a PlottingLSL. Rivera · M. RoneRivera · RoneC66 75 62▼-7@trip 8210-1Fair 8-112%
▼ Down -766 75 62@trip 82CLSCard model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 75 62
LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 12% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey L R Rivera 34% career ★ 8-for-34 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 21 · Trainer Mike Rone 31% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 21 ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R3: Henry Mac 2-1, R4: Beautiful Crazy 5-2, R5: Laos Lucy 15-1, R7: Re Markably 9-260D LAYOFF3/4 board hereDrops from $50,000 claiming to $25,000 claiming. Has won 4 of 8 going today's distance.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Hopped st; thru early. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 27d backRECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD L R Rivera from post 1 here: 31 wins, 77 top-3 in 125 rides · 23% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/1 TDN 6f D sClm50000 6th/7 -7¾L 66 11-1 b L Hopped st;thru early 8/11 TDN 6f D sClm50000 6th/6 -3L 75 5.1-1 b L Bmp 1/4 pole; weakened 7/17 BTP 1 1/16 T sHorizon75k 4th/7 -3½L 62 1.6-1 b Tracked 3p; weakened; 2Hidden Access▲B. Salazar · C. VecchioSalazar · VecchioB79 83 73►≡@trip 774-1Fair 6-115%
► Steady79 83 73 ≡@trip 77B▲ Rider upgrade (27% vs 13%) cutting back to a sprintCard model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 73–83 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 83 73
▲ Rider upgrade (27% vs 13%) cutting back to a sprintJockey Becerra Fernando Salazar 24% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Caryn Vecchio 29% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Kickstart 5-2, R5: Pyramid Scheme 9-2, R7: Jupiter 8-1, R8: Lizzy's Dream 2-1CLASS UPBack to 6 furlongs off a a mile race. Finished 2nd in a 6-horse $25,000 claiming race at TDN, beaten 6 lengths.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/24 TDN 1m D sClm25000 2nd/6 -6L 79 5.9-1 b L Dug in; game second 9/2 TDN 1m D sClm16000 2nd/5 by hd 83 4.7-1 b L Fought back game rail 8/19 TDN 1m D sClm16000 3rd/7 -7L 73 4.2-1 b L Pressed2w; faded lane 3Blazing Burroughs★S. Pauly · L. SmithPauly · SmithA79 75 55▲▲+13↕@trip 945-2Fair 9-218%
▲▲ Big jump +1379 75 55 ↕@trip 94A★ Best at the trip 942Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–79 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 75 55
★ Best at the trip 94CLASS UPWON LAST2/4 board hereWinner of a 5-horse $25,000 claiming race at BTP last time. Has moved up each time out, 55 to 75 to 79.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 184 days agoRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BTP 6½f D sClm25000b Won/5 79 3.3-1 b L Pressurd pace ins;drvg 8/20 BTP 6½f D sClm15000b 2nd/5 75 1.3-1 b L 2w;3w upr;wknd late 7/23 BTP 6f D OC 16k n1x 5th/6 -5¼L 55 10-1 b L 4p into lane; faded 4Relish the Ride▼J. Skerrett · G. JohnsonSkerrett · JohnsonC64 77 67▼▼-11@trip 7120-1Fair 50-12%
▼▼ Big drop -1164 77 67@trip 71C▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 77 67
▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86Jockey Jefferson Skerrett 14% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Gary L Johnson 31% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)60D LAYOFFRaises its level, $16,000 claiming last time and $25,000 claiming now. Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Through after half), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 18d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/19 TDN 1m D sClm16000 7th/7 -12L 64 12-1 b L Through after half 7/22 TDN 1m D sClm16000 3rd/6 -5½L 77 6.6-1 b L Rallied5w; missed 7/2 TDN 1m D sClm16000 5th/5 -5½L 67 1.7-1 b L Dueled; tired 5Eagle NestE. Barbaran · M. IbarraBarbaran · IbarraB83 73 56▲▲+13↕@trip 835-1Fair 9-218%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best83 73 56 ↕@trip 83B1Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 73 56
Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Marco Ibarra 34% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Rico Suave 5-1, R3: This Time 10-1, R5: Victory Chant 5-1, R8: Youngandfree 4-1WON LASTFigures are climbing: 56, 73, 83 over its last three. Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $16,000 claiming race at TDN at 2.2-1.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Full of run; much best.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 140 days agoRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts hereRECORD Erik Barbaran from post 5 here: 44 wins, 100 top-3 in 159 rides · 24% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/30 TDN 6f D sClm16000n2x Won/7 83 2.2-1 b L Full of run; much best 9/10 TDN 5½f D sClm16000n2x 4th/6 -½L 73 11-1 b L 3w bid; needed more 8/24 TDN 6f D sClm16000n2x 7th/8 -9½L 56 5.1-1 b L Through early 6Bold Buckeye▲▼R. Feliciano · J. PooleFeliciano · PooleA89 64 76▲▲+14↕@trip 898-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best89 64 76 ↕@trip 89A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 64 76
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey R Feliciano 31% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Joe M Poole 29% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R3: Finally Friday 15-1, R4: Miss Classified 10-1, R5: Rabbi Rosette 2-1, R8: Loco Coco 3-1CLASS DROPWON LAST3/5 board hereOwns the highest recent figure here at 89. 6 wins from 14 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 10d agoRECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 TDN 6f D sClm16000b Won/8 89 1.3-1 L Pressed;clear;hadily 9/1 TDN 6f D sClm50000 7th/7 -3¾L 64 3.2-1 b L Chased; stopped lane 8/11 TDN 6f D sClm50000 4th/6 -2L 76 1.5-1 b L 3w;bid1/4p;bmp;empty 7Playing For Keeps▲▼M. Cedillo · L. RubertoCedillo · RubertoA75 87 87▼▼-11@trip 873-1Fair 6-115%
▼▼ Big drop -1175 87 87@trip 87A▲ Lone speed on early pace▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 87)3Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 87 87
▲ Lone speed on early pace▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 87)Jockey Mauro Cedillo 28% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Louis V Ruberto 21% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet★ FASTEST WORKWas running in $50,000 claiming; today's $25,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Carries 124 pounds, 4 more than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Sep 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dRECORD Mauro Cedillo from post 7 here: 6 wins, 21 top-3 in 72 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 TDN 6f D sClm50000 5th/8 -2¼L 75 3.4-1 b L Failed to sustain bid 7/20 TDN 6f D sClm50000 2nd/7 -2½L 87 2.6-1 b L Pace;altrd5p;2nd best 6/16 TDN 6f D Alw n1x Won/6 87 1.2-1 b L Drew off; handily 8Swayback Mobil▼▼L. Gonzalez · R. Juarez-MendozaGonzalez · Juarez-MendozaC72 51 71▲▲+9↕@trip 7620-1Fair 30-13%
▲▲ Big jump +972 51 71 ↕@trip 76C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–72 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 51 71
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey L A Gonzalez 33% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza 23% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%)★ FASTEST WORKL A Gonzalez takes over from Erik Barbaran in the saddle. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 76 against a 86 par.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 195d agoRECORD L A Gonzalez from post 8 here: 1 win, 6 top-3 in 15 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 TDN 6f D sClm50000 8th/8 -6¼L 72 52-1 b L Trailed 9/21 TDN 1m D Alw n1x 10th/10 -14L 51 53-1 b L Through early 9/1 TDN 6f D sClm50000 4th/7 -3¾L 71 27-1 b L Passed tiring rivals 9Golden FlagL. Sosa · T. HammSosa · HammB72 72 84▼-5@trip 8712-1Fair 12-18%
▼ Down -572 72 84@trip 87BCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 72 84
Jockey Laureano Sosa 26% career ★ 5-for-22 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Timothy Hamm 37% career ★ 6-for-22 on dirt this meet (27%), #1 of 212/3 board here3rd of 10 at 4F on Jun 17, in :48.80. Gets a new rider, Laureano Sosa replacing Rocco Bowen.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 89d back)RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 TDN 6f D sClm50000 7th/8 -1¾L 72 6.9-1 L Chased inside;weaknd 8/28 BTP 6f D Alw b 3rd/5 -4L 72 2.3-1 L Tough trip;clear 3rd 8/11 TDN 6f D sClm50000 2nd/6 84 9.5-1 L Set pace; second best
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 6
UPCOMINGClaiming $25,000
Claiming $25,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #5 Eagle Nest (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 83 · 73 · 56. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #3 Blazing Burroughs at 5-2. Use #7 Playing For Keeps in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 BLAZING BURROUGHS (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #3 BLAZING BURROUGHS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 22.4%).
- #7 PLAYING FOR KEEPS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.2% to their 19.6%).
- #2 HIDDEN ACCESS — our #4 number, about right at the windows (15.6% to their 15.7%).
Model vs the morning line
- #5 EAGLE NEST — we make it 15.3%, the morning line works out to 13.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #9 Golden Flag; pressure from #7 Playing For Keeps, #3 Blazing Burroughs; and works against #3 Blazing Burroughs, #7 Playing For Keeps, #9 Golden Flag.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE
50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta