Pick sheet
Race 62:35 PM Clm 25000
6F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Eagle Nest, is 18% to win (morning line implies 13%). Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
Top pick #5 Eagle Nest ML 5-1 Fair 9-2 Model #1 ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best ↕ Up and down 56–83
Jockey E. Barbaran · Trainer M. Ibarra · KEE 13: 4-3-2 · Dist 22: 7-4-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 83 · 33 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
9/30TDN6f DsClm16000n2xWon/7832.2-1b LFull of run; much best
9/10TDN5½f DsClm16000n2x4th/6 -½L7311-1b L3w bid; needed more
8/24TDN6f DsClm16000n2x7th/8 -9½L565.1-1b LThrough early
Case: Last out won in the sClm16000n2x at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 83-73-56. Best at today's distance 83. 7-for-22 at the distance. 4-for-13 at Mahoning Valley. M. Ibarra / E. Barbaran.
Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.
Contender #3 Blazing Burroughs ML 5-2 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +13 ★ Best at 6f dirt: 94 ↕ Up and down 55–79
Jockey S. Pauly · Trainer L. Smith · KEE 8: 1-1-1 · Dist 21: 8-4-3 · best fig at 6f dirt 94 · 30 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/3BTP6½f DsClm25000bWon/5793.3-1b LPressurd pace ins;drvg
8/20BTP6½f DsClm15000b2nd/5751.3-1b L2w;3w upr;wknd late
7/23BTP6f DOC 16k n1x5th/6 -5¼L5510-1b L4p into lane; faded
Case: Last out won in the sClm25000b at BTP. Last Brisnet figures 79-75-55. Best at today's distance 94. 8-for-21 at the distance. 1-for-8 at Mahoning Valley. L. Smith / S. Pauly.
Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.
Use #7 Playing For Keeps ML 3-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -11 ▲ Lone speed on early pace ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 87) Last out 5th/8 -2¼L in the sClm50000 at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 75-87-87. Best at today's distance 87. 4-for-18 at the distance. 2-for-8 at Mahoning Valley. L. Ruberto / M. Cedillo. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.
Jockey M. Cedillo · Trainer L. Ruberto · KEE 8: 2-0-1 · Dist 18: 4-4-3 · best fig at 6f dirt 87 · 25 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/8TDN6f DsClm500005th/8 -2¼L753.4-1b LFailed to sustain bid
7/20TDN6f DsClm500002nd/7 -2½L872.6-1b LPace;altrd5p;2nd best
6/16TDN6f DAlw n1xWon/6871.2-1b LDrew off; handily
Longshot #1 Rogues a Plotting ML 10-1 Fair 8-1 Model #5 ▼ Down -7
Jockey L. Rivera · Trainer M. Rone · KEE 4: 2-1-0 · Dist 8: 4-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 82 · 62 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
9/1TDN6f DsClm500006th/7 -7¾L6611-1b LHopped st;thru early
8/11TDN6f DsClm500006th/6 -3L755.1-1b LBmp 1/4 pole; weakened
7/17BTP1 1/16 TsHorizon75k4th/7 -3½L621.6-1bTracked 3p; weakened;
Case: Last out 6th/7 -7¾L in the sClm50000 at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 66-75-62. Best at today's distance 82. 4-for-8 at the distance. 2-for-4 at Mahoning Valley. M. Rone / L. Rivera.
Knock: Off 62 days.
Narrowing the field: A #3, #6, #7 · B #2, #5, #9 · C #1, #4, #8
Angles: #2 Rider upgrade (27% vs 13%) cutting back to a sprint · #4 Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #6 Last fig 89 at/above par 86 · #6 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #7 Lone speed on early pace · #7 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 87) · #8 Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #8 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R6 Mahoning Valley · Claiming $25,000

2:35 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $30,100 · 9 runners2:35 PM · 6f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $30K · Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Rogues a PlottingLSL. Rivera · M. RoneRivera · RoneC66 75 62▼-7@trip 8210-1Fair 8-112%▼ Down -766 75 62@trip 82CLS

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 75 62

    LS

    Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 12% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey L R Rivera 34% career ★ 8-for-34 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 21 · Trainer Mike Rone 31% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 21 ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R3: Henry Mac 2-1, R4: Beautiful Crazy 5-2, R5: Laos Lucy 15-1, R7: Re Markably 9-2
    60D LAYOFF3/4 board here

    Drops from $50,000 claiming to $25,000 claiming. Has won 4 of 8 going today's distance.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Hopped st; thru early. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 27d back
    RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
    RECORD L R Rivera from post 1 here: 31 wins, 77 top-3 in 125 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/1TDN6f DsClm500006th/7 -7¾L6611-1b LHopped st;thru early
    8/11TDN6f DsClm500006th/6 -3L755.1-1b LBmp 1/4 pole; weakened
    7/17BTP1 1/16 TsHorizon75k4th/7 -3½L621.6-1bTracked 3p; weakened;
  2. 2Hidden Access▲B. Salazar · C. VecchioSalazar · VecchioB79 83 73►≡@trip 774-1Fair 6-115%► Steady79 83 73 ≡@trip 77B▲ Rider upgrade (27% vs 13%) cutting back to a sprint

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 73–83 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 83 73

    ▲ Rider upgrade (27% vs 13%) cutting back to a sprint
    Jockey Becerra Fernando Salazar 24% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Caryn Vecchio 29% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Kickstart 5-2, R5: Pyramid Scheme 9-2, R7: Jupiter 8-1, R8: Lizzy's Dream 2-1
    CLASS UP

    Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race. Finished 2nd in a 6-horse $25,000 claiming race at TDN, beaten 6 lengths.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/24TDN1m DsClm250002nd/6 -6L795.9-1b LDug in; game second
    9/2TDN1m DsClm160002nd/5 by hd834.7-1b LFought back game rail
    8/19TDN1m DsClm160003rd/7 -7L734.2-1b LPressed2w; faded lane
  3. 3Blazing Burroughs★S. Pauly · L. SmithPauly · SmithA79 75 55▲▲+13↕@trip 945-2Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +1379 75 55 ↕@trip 94A★ Best at the trip 942

    Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–79 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 75 55

    ★ Best at the trip 94
    Jockey Summer Pauly 26% career · Trainer Larry Smith 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Lora Ann 5-2, R8: Rivers Angel 5-2
    CLASS UPWON LAST2/4 board here

    Winner of a 5-horse $25,000 claiming race at BTP last time. Has moved up each time out, 55 to 75 to 79.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 184 days ago
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3BTP6½f DsClm25000bWon/5793.3-1b LPressurd pace ins;drvg
    8/20BTP6½f DsClm15000b2nd/5751.3-1b L2w;3w upr;wknd late
    7/23BTP6f DOC 16k n1x5th/6 -5¼L5510-1b L4p into lane; faded
  4. 4Relish the Ride▼J. Skerrett · G. JohnsonSkerrett · JohnsonC64 77 67▼▼-11@trip 7120-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -1164 77 67@trip 71C▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 77 67

    ▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86
    Jockey Jefferson Skerrett 14% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Gary L Johnson 31% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Special Beach 20-1, R5: Mobil Truth 20-1 · Trainer R7: Thru The Vine 20-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Raises its level, $16,000 claiming last time and $25,000 claiming now. Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Through after half), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 18d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/19TDN1m DsClm160007th/7 -12L6412-1b LThrough after half
    7/22TDN1m DsClm160003rd/6 -5½L776.6-1b LRallied5w; missed
    7/2TDN1m DsClm160005th/5 -5½L671.7-1b LDueled; tired
  5. 5Eagle NestE. Barbaran · M. IbarraBarbaran · IbarraB83 73 56▲▲+13↕@trip 835-1Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best83 73 56 ↕@trip 83B1

    Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 73 56

    Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Marco Ibarra 34% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Rico Suave 5-1, R3: This Time 10-1, R5: Victory Chant 5-1, R8: Youngandfree 4-1
    WON LAST

    Figures are climbing: 56, 73, 83 over its last three. Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $16,000 claiming race at TDN at 2.2-1.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Full of run; much best.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 140 days ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
    RECORD Erik Barbaran from post 5 here: 44 wins, 100 top-3 in 159 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/30TDN6f DsClm16000n2xWon/7832.2-1b LFull of run; much best
    9/10TDN5½f DsClm16000n2x4th/6 -½L7311-1b L3w bid; needed more
    8/24TDN6f DsClm16000n2x7th/8 -9½L565.1-1b LThrough early
  6. 6Bold Buckeye▲▼R. Feliciano · J. PooleFeliciano · PooleA89 64 76▲▲+14↕@trip 898-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best89 64 76 ↕@trip 89A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 64 76

    ▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey R Feliciano 31% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Joe M Poole 29% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Finally Friday 15-1, R4: Miss Classified 10-1, R5: Rabbi Rosette 2-1, R8: Loco Coco 3-1
    CLASS DROPWON LAST3/5 board here

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 89. 6 wins from 14 starts at this distance.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 10d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/6TDN6f DsClm16000bWon/8891.3-1LPressed;clear;hadily
    9/1TDN6f DsClm500007th/7 -3¾L643.2-1b LChased; stopped lane
    8/11TDN6f DsClm500004th/6 -2L761.5-1b L3w;bid1/4p;bmp;empty
  7. 7Playing For Keeps▲▼M. Cedillo · L. RubertoCedillo · RubertoA75 87 87▼▼-11@trip 873-1Fair 6-115%▼▼ Big drop -1175 87 87@trip 87A▲ Lone speed on early pace▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 87)3

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 87 87

    ▲ Lone speed on early pace▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 87)
    Jockey Mauro Cedillo 28% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Louis V Ruberto 21% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Startdfromdabottom 7-2, R5: Pleasure Pearl 8-1, R8: Bold Sally 12-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Was running in $50,000 claiming; today's $25,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Carries 124 pounds, 4 more than last time.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Sep 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD Mauro Cedillo from post 7 here: 6 wins, 21 top-3 in 72 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8TDN6f DsClm500005th/8 -2¼L753.4-1b LFailed to sustain bid
    7/20TDN6f DsClm500002nd/7 -2½L872.6-1b LPace;altrd5p;2nd best
    6/16TDN6f DAlw n1xWon/6871.2-1b LDrew off; handily
  8. 8Swayback Mobil▼▼L. Gonzalez · R. Juarez-MendozaGonzalez · Juarez-MendozaC72 51 71▲▲+9↕@trip 7620-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +972 51 71 ↕@trip 76C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–72 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 51 71

    ▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey L A Gonzalez 33% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza 23% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R7: Sweet As Sin 12-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    L A Gonzalez takes over from Erik Barbaran in the saddle. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 76 against a 86 par.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 195d ago
    RECORD L A Gonzalez from post 8 here: 1 win, 6 top-3 in 15 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8TDN6f DsClm500008th/8 -6¼L7252-1b LTrailed
    9/21TDN1m DAlw n1x10th/10 -14L5153-1b LThrough early
    9/1TDN6f DsClm500004th/7 -3¾L7127-1b LPassed tiring rivals
  9. 9Golden FlagL. Sosa · T. HammSosa · HammB72 72 84▼-5@trip 8712-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -572 72 84@trip 87B

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 72 84

    Jockey Laureano Sosa 26% career ★ 5-for-22 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Timothy Hamm 37% career ★ 6-for-22 on dirt this meet (27%), #1 of 21
    2/3 board here

    3rd of 10 at 4F on Jun 17, in :48.80. Gets a new rider, Laureano Sosa replacing Rocco Bowen.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 89d back)
    RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8TDN6f DsClm500007th/8 -1¾L726.9-1LChased inside;weaknd
    8/28BTP6f DAlw b3rd/5 -4L722.3-1LTough trip;clear 3rd
    8/11TDN6f DsClm500002nd/6849.5-1LSet pace; second best

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Claiming $25,000

Field
9 runners
Purse
$30,100
Post
2:35 PM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
Card model top pick
#5 · 18%

Claiming $25,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #5 Eagle Nest (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 83 · 73 · 56. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #3 Blazing Burroughs at 5-2. Use #7 Playing For Keeps in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #3 BLAZING BURROUGHS (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
  • #3 BLAZING BURROUGHS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 22.4%).
  • #7 PLAYING FOR KEEPS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.2% to their 19.6%).
  • #2 HIDDEN ACCESS — our #4 number, about right at the windows (15.6% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • #5 EAGLE NEST — we make it 15.3%, the morning line works out to 13.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Golden Flag; pressure from #7 Playing For Keeps, #3 Blazing Burroughs; and works against #3 Blazing Burroughs, #7 Playing For Keeps, #9 Golden Flag.

Lead
9Golden Flag947Playing For Keeps913Blazing Burroughs81
Press
5Eagle Nest946Bold Buckeye891Rogues A Plotting862Hidden Access768Swayback Mobil76
Stalk
4Relish The Ride72
Close
none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

5
Eagle Nest
94
9
Golden Flag
94
7
Playing For Keeps
91
6
Bold Buckeye
89
1
Rogues A Plotting
86
3
Blazing Burroughs
81
2
Hidden Access
76
8
Swayback Mobil
76
4
Relish The Ride
72

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

7
Playing For Keeps
16
8
Swayback Mobil
16
9
Golden Flag
16
1
Rogues A Plotting
15
4
Relish The Ride
13
5
Eagle Nest
13
6
Bold Buckeye
13
2
Hidden Access
8
3
Blazing Burroughs
8
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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8)

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