Pick sheet

Race 112:15 PM Alw 36200n4lEarly Pick 4 starts

6F · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Onirico, is 34% to win (morning line implies 27%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Onirico ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ► Steady ★ Best at 6f dirt: 87

Jockey J. Bracho · Trainer R. Estvanko · KEE 3: 3-0-0 · Dist 7: 3-3-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 87 · 26 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	TDN	6f D	sAlw40100n4l	2nd/6	78	1.2-1	b L	Pressed;led;caught
8/31	TDN	6f D	sAlw40100n4l	2nd/6 -2L	87	3.0-1	b L	Gaining3w;good effort
7/9	TDN	6f D	sAlw40100n4l	2nd/6 -6L	74	0.8-1	L	Lost ground;came again

Case: Last out 2nd in the sAlw40100n4l at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 78-87-74. Best at today's distance 87. 3-for-7 at the distance. 3-for-3 at Mahoning Valley. R. Estvanko / J. Bracho.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Kickstart ML 5-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best

Jockey B. Salazar · Trainer R. Gorham · KEE 8: 1-3-1 · Dist 16: 3-5-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 80 · 34 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	TDN	6f D	sAlw38400n2x	Won/7	80	59-1	b L	Bobbled;pressd;clear
7/30	TDN	6f D	sClm16000n3l	4th/6 -2½L	66	4.0-1	b L	Evenly
6/17	TDN	6f D	sAlw38400n3l	6th/6 -8½L	62	8.2-1	b L	Speed turn; wilted

Case: Last out won in the sAlw38400n2x at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 80-66-62. Best at today's distance 80. 3-for-16 at the distance. 1-for-8 at Mahoning Valley. R. Gorham / B. Salazar.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #1 Jac's Doe Maker ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best ↕ Up and down 53–83 Last out 2nd in the Alw30400n1x at MVR. Last Brisnet figures 83-70-53. Best at today's distance 83. 1-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Mahoning Valley. I. Vazquez / C. Keiser. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey C. Keiser · Trainer I. Vazquez · KEE 3: 0-2-0 · Dist 4: 1-3-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 83 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MVR	6f D	Alw n1x	2nd/11	83	18-1	L	Pace; dug in; caught
9/29	TDN	6f D	sClm50000n4l	2nd/6	70	2.0-1	L	Battled inside;2best
9/17	TDN	1m D	sAlw40100n4l	6th/6 -16L	53	20-1	b L	Rushed pace;used up

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #5 · B #2, #4, #6

R1 Mahoning Valley · State-Bred Allowance · $36,200 purse

12:15 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $36,200 · 6 runners12:15 PM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $36K · State-Bred Allowance · $36,200 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Jac's Doe MakerC. Keiser · I. VazquezKeiser · VazquezA83 70 53▲▲+16↕@trip 833-1Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best83 70 53 ↕@trip 83A3

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 70 53

Jockey Chelsey Keiser 33% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Ivan Vazquez 30% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Scrimper 6-1, R7: Mr. Penny Pincher 8-1

★ FASTEST WORKJky 8/34 from post 1

Raises its level, allowance last time and allowance now. Has moved up each time out, 53 to 70 to 83.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.40 on Aug 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Chelsey Keiser from post 1 here: 8 wins, 19 top-3 in 34 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MVR	6f D	Alw n1x	2nd/11	83	18-1	L	Pace; dug in; caught
9/29	TDN	6f D	sClm50000n4l	2nd/6	70	2.0-1	L	Battled inside;2best
9/17	TDN	1m D	sAlw40100n4l	6th/6 -16L	53	20-1	b L	Rushed pace;used up

2Mor StormyV. Fernandez · R. ClineFernandez · ClineB76 74 71▲+7@trip 816-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +776 74 71@trip 81B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 74 71

Jockey Victor R Fernandez 29% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Robert C Cline 30% career 3-for-25 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Win Herbie Win 8-1, R4: Timely Secret 9-2, R5: Honor Quest 6-1 · Trainer R3: Win Herbie Win 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/4 board here

Last out was 3rd, a head behind the winner, in a 6-horse allowance race at TDN. Gets a new rider, Victor R Fernandez replacing Becerra Fernando Salazar.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 98d back)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Victor R Fernandez from post 2 here: 9 wins, 27 top-3 in 72 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	TDN	6f D	sAlw40100n4l	3rd/6 by hd	76	7.9-1	b L	Closed gap late inside
9/10	TDN	6f D	sAlw38400n3l	Won/6 by ½	74	3.7-1	b L	Dueled; edged clear
8/5	TDN	6f D	sAlw38400n3l	4th/7 -1½L	71	5.5-1	b L	Stmb;bmp st;outfnshd

3Onirico★J. Bracho · R. EstvankoBracho · EstvankoA78 87 74►@trip 872-1Fair 2-134%► Steady78 87 74@trip 87A★ Best at the trip 871

Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 87 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 87 74

★ Best at the trip 87

Jockey Jose A Bracho 35% career 5-for-30 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Richard Estvanko 27% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Quick Recovery 6-1, R8: All That Sass 12-1

3/3 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 87. 3 wins from 7 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 219d back)

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (3 wins)

RECORD Jose A Bracho from post 3 here: 35 wins, 77 top-3 in 134 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	TDN	6f D	sAlw40100n4l	2nd/6	78	1.2-1	b L	Pressed;led;caught
8/31	TDN	6f D	sAlw40100n4l	2nd/6 -2L	87	3.0-1	b L	Gaining3w;good effort
7/9	TDN	6f D	sAlw40100n4l	2nd/6 -6L	74	0.8-1	L	Lost ground;came again

4Sadie's GhostT. Houghton · L. HuepenbeckerHoughton · HuepenbeckerB66 75 66▼-4@trip 8112-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -466 75 66@trip 81B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 75 66

Jockey T D Houghton 32% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Loren Huepenbecker 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)

Best recent figure is 75, well under the 84 par for this level. Picks up 5 pounds from its last start.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 12d back

RECORD T D Houghton from post 4 here: 7 wins, 18 top-3 in 74 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	TDN	6f D	sClm50000n4l	4th/6 by hd	66	0.7-1	L	Dueled2w; weaknd late
9/8	TDN	5½f D	sClm50000n4l	2nd/6	75	2.1-1	L	3w;move;clear;nailed
8/18	TDN	6f D	sClm50000n4l	3rd/6 by hd	66	1.3-1	L	Rail;bmp repeatedly

5KickstartB. Salazar · R. GorhamSalazar · GorhamA80 66 62▲▲+13@trip 805-2Fair 7-222%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best80 66 62@trip 80A2

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 66 62

Jockey Becerra Fernando Salazar 24% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Robert M Gorham 32% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Pyramid Scheme 9-2, R6: Hidden Access 4-1, R7: Jupiter 8-1, R8: Lizzy's Dream 2-1

WON LAST3/6 board here

Won last out in a 7-horse allowance race at TDN. Figures are climbing: 62, 66, 80 over its last three.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bobbled; pressd; clear. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 50d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	TDN	6f D	sAlw38400n2x	Won/7	80	59-1	b L	Bobbled;pressd;clear
7/30	TDN	6f D	sClm16000n3l	4th/6 -2½L	66	4.0-1	b L	Evenly
6/17	TDN	6f D	sAlw38400n3l	6th/6 -8½L	62	8.2-1	b L	Speed turn; wilted

6Rico SuaveE. Barbaran · R. ZielinskiBarbaran · ZielinskiB62 78 85▼▼-18↕@trip 855-1Fair 7-112%▼▼ Big drop -1862 78 85 ↕@trip 85B

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 78 85

Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Richard Zielinski 27% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R3: This Time 10-1, R5: Victory Chant 5-1, R6: Eagle Nest 5-1, R8: Youngandfree 4-1 · Trainer R3: Scrimper 6-1, R3: This Time 10-1, R7: Sweet As Sin 12-1, R8: Lizzy's Dream 2-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 85 to 78 to 62. Erik Barbaran takes over from Victor R Fernandez in the saddle.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 171d ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Erik Barbaran from post 6 here: 39 wins, 87 top-3 in 141 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	TDN	6f D	sAlw40100n4l	6th/6 -2L	62	1.2-1	b L	Set pressured pace;
9/17	TDN	1m D	sAlw40100n4l	3rd/6 -4L	78	9.2-1	b L	3w;bid;outfinished
8/31	TDN	6f D	sAlw40100n4l	3rd/6	85	4.5-1	b L	Set pace; outfinished

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 1

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $36,200 purse

Field

6 runners

Purse

$36,200

Post

12:15 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#3 · 34%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won four races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Onirico (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 78 · 87 · 74. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Kickstart at 5-2. Use #1 Jac's Doe Maker in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 ONIRICO (2-1) — our number agrees.
#3 ONIRICO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.5% to their 26.5%).
#5 KICKSTART — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.8% to their 22.8%).
#1 JAC'S DOE MAKER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.9% to their 19.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #3 Onirico; pressure from #6 Rico Suave, #1 Jac's Doe Maker.

Lead

none

Press

3Onirico966Rico Suave961Jac's Doe Maker924Sadie's Ghost905Kickstart902Mor Stormy87

Stalk

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Onirico

Rico Suave

Jac's Doe Maker

Sadie's Ghost

Kickstart

Mor Stormy

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Jac's Doe Maker

Mor Stormy

Onirico

Rico Suave

Sadie's Ghost

Kickstart

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Bet types

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