Pick sheet

Race 83:31 PM Alw 33700n2l

6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Lizzy's Dream, is 29% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: honest. Speed from #7, #3, #5.

Top pick #1 Lizzy's Dream ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 60–66 ▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey B. Salazar · Trainer R. Zielinski · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 8: 0-2-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 66 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n2l	3rd/10 -5L	60	3.8-1	b L	Finished well 6wide
7/1	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n1x	4th/8 -7L	60	9.2-1	b L	Failed to menace
6/15	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n2l	2nd/7 -3½L	66	2.8-1	b L	Rallied 2w; 2nd best

Case: Last out 3rd in the fsAlw35800n2l at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 60-60-66. Best at today's distance 66. 0-for-8 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Mahoning Valley. R. Zielinski / B. Salazar.

Knock: 0-for-8 at the distance.

Contender #5 Youngandfree ML 4-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best ★ Best at 6f dirt: 69 ▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey E. Barbaran · Trainer K. Tumblin · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 4: 1-2-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 69 · 12 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	MVR	6f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/11	69	1.1-1	b L	Bumped st; 5wd bid
10/8	TDN	6f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/7	50	0.6-1	b L	Pace;clear;no match
9/17	TDN	6f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/7	59	1.6-1	b	Stmbl st;led;no match

Case: Last out won in the fsMdSpWt at MVR. Last Brisnet figures 69-50-59. Best at today's distance 69. 1-for-4 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Mahoning Valley. K. Tumblin / E. Barbaran.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #6 Rivers Angel ML 5-2 Fair 7-2 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best ▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 74 Last out 2nd in the fsAlw22700n3l at BTP. Last Brisnet figures 67-58-53. Best at today's distance 67. 0-for-3 at the distance. J. Corriveau / S. Pauly. Knock: Never raced at Mahoning Valley. 0-for-3 at the distance.

Jockey S. Pauly · Trainer J. Corriveau · Dist 3: 0-1-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 67 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	BTP	6f D	fsAlw22700n3l	2nd/6	67	6.7-1	L	Loomed 4wd;led;caught
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n2l	4th/10 -5½L	58	7.3-1	L	Improved position 5wid
9/15	TDN	1m D	fsAlw35800n2l	6th/10 -6L	53	4.0-1	L	3w; faded lane

Longshot #2 All That Sass ML 12-1 Fair 15-1 Model #5 ► Steady ▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey J. Bracho · Trainer J. Radosevich · Dist 3: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 64 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n2l	6th/10 -11L	52	15-1	L	No threat
9/17	TDN	6f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/8 by nk	64	2.3-1	L	Up in final strides
8/13	TDN	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/8 -7½L	46	3.0-1	L	Dueled 2w; weakened

Case: Last out 6th/10 -11L in the fsAlw35800n2l at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 52-64-46. Best at today's distance 64. 1-for-3 at the distance. J. Radosevich / J. Bracho.

Knock: Never raced at Mahoning Valley.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #5, #6 · B #2, #4, #7 · C #3

Angles: #1 Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #2 Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #3 Best fig 44 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #4 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #5 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #6 Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #7 Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 74

R8 Mahoning Valley · State-Bred Allowance · $33,700 purse

3:31 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $33,700 · 7 runners3:31 PM · 6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $34K · State-Bred Allowance · $33,700 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Lizzy's Dream▼B. Salazar · R. ZielinskiSalazar · ZielinskiA60 60 66►≡@trip 662-1Fair 5-229%► Steady60 60 66 ≡@trip 66A▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 741

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 60–66 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 60 66

▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey Becerra Fernando Salazar 24% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Richard Zielinski 27% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Kickstart 5-2, R5: Pyramid Scheme 9-2, R6: Hidden Access 4-1, R7: Jupiter 8-1 · Trainer R1: Rico Suave 5-1, R3: Scrimper 6-1, R3: This Time 10-1, R7: Sweet As Sin 12-1

Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Beaten 5 lengths for 3rd in a 10-horse allowance race at TDN.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Finished well 6wide. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 0 works in 30d and the last 35d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n2l	3rd/10 -5L	60	3.8-1	b L	Finished well 6wide
7/1	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n1x	4th/8 -7L	60	9.2-1	b L	Failed to menace
6/15	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n2l	2nd/7 -3½L	66	2.8-1	b L	Rallied 2w; 2nd best

2All That Sass▼LSJ. Bracho · J. RadosevichBracho · RadosevichB52 64 46►@trip 6412-1Fair 15-16%► Steady52 64 46@trip 64B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 74LS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 64 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 64 46

▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 74LS

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Jose A Bracho 35% career 5-for-30 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Justin Radosevich 37% career ★ 8-for-30 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 21 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Onirico 2-1, R4: Quick Recovery 6-1 · Trainer R2: First Kiss Ever 2-1, R3: Ruffin 3-1, R5: Bonita Dominica 12-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 64 against a 74 par. Last out was 6th, 11 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at TDN.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.40 on Jul 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Jose A Bracho from post 2 here: 25 wins, 74 top-3 in 133 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n2l	6th/10 -11L	52	15-1	L	No threat
9/17	TDN	6f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/8 by nk	64	2.3-1	L	Up in final strides
8/13	TDN	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/8 -7½L	46	3.0-1	L	Dueled 2w; weakened

3Almost Drilled▼D. Parker · J. UrietaParker · UrietaC39 44 44►@trip 4415-1Fair 20-14%► Steady39 44 44@trip 44C▼ Best fig 44 is 5+ under today's par 74

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 44 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 39 44 44

▼ Best fig 44 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey D L Parker 35% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Johanna Urieta 26% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Trainer R2: Anicetta 20-1, R4: Timely Secret 9-2, R5: Moon Dreams 12-1

Changes barns, from Jeff Radosevich to Johanna Urieta. Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 114d ago

RECORD D L Parker from post 3 here: 4 wins, 14 top-3 in 28 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MVR	1m D	fsAlw33700n2l	7th/8 -11L	39	19-1	L	Chased pace; gave way
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsMd12500	Won/9	44	9.5-1	L	3w;3/16p;lead;drift;dr
9/14	TDN	5½f D	fsMd12500	3rd/10 -7L	44	48-1	L	2-3wide; evenly

4Bold Sally▼M. Cedillo · J. LopezCedillo · LopezB47 66 58▼-5↕@trip 6612-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -547 66 58 ↕@trip 66B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 74

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–66 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 66 58

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey Mauro Cedillo 28% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Jacinto Lopez 26% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Startdfromdabottom 7-2, R5: Pleasure Pearl 8-1, R6: Playing For Keeps 3-1 · Trainer R5: Bold Suzy 20-1

Jockey switch: Angel I Diaz last out, Mauro Cedillo today. A 66 is the high figure lately, short of the 74 par.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 53 days ago

RECORD Mauro Cedillo from post 4 here: 12 wins, 39 top-3 in 89 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n2l	7th/10 -8¼L	47	17-1	b L	No factor
9/17	TDN	6f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/7 by 1½	66	3.8-1	b L	Full of run;going away
8/13	TDN	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/8 -3½L	58	17-1	b L	Boxed in turn;even fin

5Youngandfree▼★E. Barbaran · K. TumblinBarbaran · TumblinA69 50 59▲▲+12@trip 694-1Fair 7-222%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best69 50 59@trip 69A▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74★ Best at the trip 692
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 69 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 50 59
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74★ Best at the trip 69
Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Kristina M Tumblin 21% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Rico Suave 5-1, R3: This Time 10-1, R5: Victory Chant 5-1, R6: Eagle Nest 5-1 · Trainer R2: Kingdom Of Fear 10-1
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEWON LAST
Comes in off a victory in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at MVR. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 69, with 67 next best.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
TROUBLED TRIP Bumped st; 5wd bid last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 127 days ago
RECORD Erik Barbaran from post 5 here: 44 wins, 100 top-3 in 159 rides · 24% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/21 MVR 6f D fsMdSpWt Won/11 69 1.1-1 b L Bumped st; 5wd bid
10/8 TDN 6f D fsMdSpWt 2nd/7 50 0.6-1 b L Pace;clear;no match
9/17 TDN 6f D fsMdSpWt 2nd/7 59 1.6-1 b Stmbl st;led;no match

6Rivers Angel▼S. Pauly · J. CorriveauPauly · CorriveauA67 58 53▲▲+11@trip 675-2Fair 7-221%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best67 58 53@trip 67A▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 743

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 67 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 58 53

▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey Summer Pauly 26% career · Trainer John Corriveau 14% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Lora Ann 5-2, R6: Blazing Burroughs 5-2

Raises its level, allowance last time and allowance now. Has moved up each time out, 53 to 58 to 67.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 21 (5F in 1:01.60), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	BTP	6f D	fsAlw22700n3l	2nd/6	67	6.7-1	L	Loomed 4wd;led;caught
10/5	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n2l	4th/10 -5½L	58	7.3-1	L	Improved position 5wid
9/15	TDN	1m D	fsAlw35800n2l	6th/10 -6L	53	4.0-1	L	3w; faded lane

7Loco Coco▼R. Feliciano · T. CasalinovaFeliciano · CasalinovaB60 60 46▲+7@trip 593-1Fair 6-114%▲ Up +7 · career best60 60 46@trip 59B▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 74

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 59 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 60 46

▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey R Feliciano 31% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Tina Casalinova 20% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Finally Friday 15-1, R4: Miss Classified 10-1, R5: Rabbi Rosette 2-1, R6: Bold Buckeye 8-1

Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs. Led at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 226d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MVR	1m D	fsAlw33700n2l	2nd/8 by hd	60	7.2-1	b L	Rushed; pace; held 2nd
9/15	TDN	1m D	fsAlw35800n2l	3rd/10 by hd	60	8.5-1	b L	Long lead; outfinished
9/7	TDN	6f D	fsAlw35800n2l	6th/6 -6L	46	10-1	b L	Hopped start;thru 1/2

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #7, #3, #5.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 8

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $33,700 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$33,700

Post

3:31 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 29%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Lizzy's Dream (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 60 · 60 · 66. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Youngandfree at 4-1. Use #6 Rivers Angel in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 LIZZY'S DREAM (2-1) — our number agrees.
#1 LIZZY'S DREAM — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.0% to their 25.9%).
#6 RIVERS ANGEL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.3% to their 22.2%).
#5 YOUNGANDFREE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.8% to their 15.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Loco Coco; pressure from #3 Almost Drilled, #5 Youngandfree; the shape helps #1 Lizzy's Dream, #3 Almost Drilled, #4 Bold Sally; and works against #7 Loco Coco.

Lead

7Loco Coco87

Press

3Almost Drilled845Youngandfree83

Stalk

1Lizzy's Dream824Bold Sally816Rivers Angel76

2All That Sass79

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Loco Coco

Almost Drilled

Youngandfree

Lizzy's Dream

Bold Sally

Rivers Angel

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

All That Sass

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