PARX RACING · RACE 2
UPCOMINGClaiming $16,000
Claiming $16,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.39
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #4 Shetalkstomuch (a closer, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 81 · 80 · 68. Backup is #6 Moor Strength at 5-1. Use #2 Shadyside in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Owns the highest recent figure here at 87. Figures are climbing: 68, 80, 81 over its last three.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 85 to 81 to 76. Silvino Ramirez takes over the training from Kathlee Crook-Demasi.
Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $12,500 claiming race at DEL at 0.6-1. Changes barns, from Juan Carlos Avila to Jamie Ness.
Raises its level, $10,000 claiming last time and $16,000 claiming now. New trainer: Bobbi Anne Hawthorne had it last time, Ernesto Padilla-Preciado now.
Winner of a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at PRX last time. Scott A Lake takes over the training from Michael V Pino.
A step up in company: $12,000 claiming before, $16,000 claiming today. Best recent figure of 78 sits right around the 83 par.
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 SHETALKSTOMUCH (8-5) — our number agrees.
- #4 SHETALKSTOMUCH — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.3% to their 29.5%).
- #2 SHADYSIDE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 21.9%).
- #6 MOOR STRENGTH — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 12.8%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #1 Pearls And Heels; pressure from #5 Telephone Line, #2 Shadyside; the shape helps #2 Shadyside, #3 Browneyedvalentine, #5 Telephone Line; and works against #1 Pearls And Heels.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#4 Shetalkstomuch
Top of the field by a clear 17-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#4 Shetalkstomuch OVER #6 Moor Strength · #2 Shadyside · #1 Pearls And Heels
Key #4 Shetalkstomuch on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#4 Shetalkstomuch / #6 Moor Strength · #2 Shadyside · #1 Pearls And Heels / #6 Moor Strength · #2 Shadyside · #1 Pearls And Heels · #5 Telephone Line
#4 Shetalkstomuch keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Bet types offered at this track →
DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / 50 CENT PICK 4 (2 - 5) / EXACTA
50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA