PARX RACING · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $25,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$32,000

Post

3:49 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#3 · 20%

Claiming $25,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 98.7

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Wish Carefully (early speed, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 83 · 89 · 90. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Light Forever at 6-1. Use #5 Analog Jones in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

3Wish Carefully

Jockey Jorge A Jr Vargas 29% career ★ 11-for-50 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Ernesto Padilla-Preciado 36% career

Also today · Trainer R9: Liberty Star 4-1, R9: Enforcer 6-1

CLASS UP3/3 board here

Figures have slipped: 90, 89, 83 over its last three. A 93 in its last five clears the 85 par for this level.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 7d ago

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)

M/L7-2

Model20%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last2nd · 22d

22ND

2Light Forever

Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career ★ 13-for-61 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Guadalupe Preciado 32% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Ride Jordan Ride 3-1, R3: Vance Scholars 2-1, R4: All Cylinders 4-1, R5: Randi's Girl 9-2 +3 more · Trainer this race: Ike's Gamble 8-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Last out was 4th, 3½ lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse optional claiming race at PRX. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 21 (:47.00), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Rated; bid; faltered. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 21 (4F in :47.00), 2 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Pascacio Lopez from post 2 here: 37 wins, 84 top-3 in 148 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last4th · 22d

33RD

5Analog Jones

Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career ★ 28-for-133 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career ★ 9-for-45 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Walk Away Joe 4-1, R6: Let'smakeitadouble 3-1, R9: Diamond Heist 9-2 · Trainer R2: Bertiebertbert 7-2, R3: Walk Away Joe 4-1, R6: Let'smakeitadouble 3-1, this race: Bebedouro 3-1

CLASS DROP

Jamie Ness takes over the training from Ernesto Padilla-Preciado. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 5 here: 71 wins, 163 top-3 in 298 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

M/L4-1

Model16%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last2nd · 21d

44TH

6Bebedouro

Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career ★ 9-for-45 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Bertiebertbert 7-2 · Trainer R2: Bertiebertbert 7-2, R3: Walk Away Joe 4-1, R6: Let'smakeitadouble 3-1, this race: Analog Jones 4-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Was running in allowance; today's optional claiming is an easier level on paper. New trainer: Colby Williams had it last time, Jamie Ness now.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 50 days ago

M/L3-1

Model18%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 17d

55TH

7Na Pali Joe

Jockey Ruben Silvera 32% career ★ 14-for-53 on dirt this meet (26%), #3 of 32 · Trainer Esteban Padilla 32% career ★ 5-for-15 on dirt this meet (33%), #2 of 51

Also today · Jockey R7: Youbetterbejoking 2-1, R9: Liberty Star 4-1 · Trainer R7: Youbetterbejoking 2-1

WON LAST

Winner of an 8-horse optional claiming race at PRX last time. 3rd of 11 at 5F on Oct 21, in 1:00.60.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD Ruben Silvera from post 7 here: 27 wins, 62 top-3 in 135 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

M/L6-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last1st · 21d

1Gotta Guy

Jockey A Castillo 30% career 4-for-51 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Ronald Abrams 30% career ★ 3-for-15 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Centaur Central 10-1, R2: Awesome Moment 6-1

7/10 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 95. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 38 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 7 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD A Castillo from post 1 here: 11 wins, 46 top-3 in 97 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

M/L9-2

Model13%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last3rd · 23d

4Ike's Gamble

Jockey Abner Adorno 32% career 6-for-60 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Guadalupe Preciado 32% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Alejandro 12-1 · Trainer this race: Light Forever 6-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Raises its level, $12,500 claiming last time and optional claiming now. Has moved up each time out, 66 to 77 to 79.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 16; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Abner Adorno from post 4 here: 23 wins, 87 top-3 in 197 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 34d

At a glance

Market favourite #6 BEBEDOURO (3-1) — our number has it ranked #4.
#6 BEBEDOURO — our #4 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 20.0%).
#3 WISH CAREFULLY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (18.8% to their 17.8%).
#5 ANALOG JONES — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.6% to their 16.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Wish Carefully; pressure from #2 Light Forever, #4 Ike's Gamble; the shape helps #1 Gotta Guy, #2 Light Forever, #4 Ike's Gamble; and works against #3 Wish Carefully.

Lead

3Wish Carefully91

Press

2Light Forever894Ike's Gamble856Bebedouro807Na Pali Joe79

Stalk

1Gotta Guy78

5Analog Jones88

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Wish Carefully

Light Forever

Ike's Gamble

Bebedouro

Na Pali Joe

Gotta Guy

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Analog Jones

Bet types

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