Pick sheet

Race 62:20 PM Clm 7500n2lLate Pick 4 starts

1 Mi · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Shes the Tall One, is 31% to win (morning line implies 27%). Pace: #2 is the only true speed and could control it.

Top pick #7 Shes the Tall One ML 9-5 Fair 5-2 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ≡ Steady 60–65 ▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey M. Gonzalez · Trainer J. Arce · Dist 3: 1-0-1 · best fig at 1m dirt 65 · 18 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	DEL	1 1/16 D	Clm 8k n2l	2nd/5 -7½L	62	1.7-1	b L	3-4p;kept on;edged plc
10/2	DEL	1m D	Clm 8k n2l	7th/10 -6¾L	61	11-1	b L	Ins;6-w uppr;no bid
9/5	DEL	1m D	Clm 7k n2lc	3rd/5 -1L	60	0.8-1	b L	In contention; hung

Case: Last out 2nd in the fClm8000n2l at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 62-61-60. Best at today's distance 65. 1-for-3 at the distance. J. Arce / M. Gonzalez.

Knock: Never raced at Parx Racing.

Contender #3 Noble Annie ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -10 ↕ Up and down 45–74

Jockey E. Ruiz · Trainer J. Santaella-Calderon · KEE 5: 0-2-1 · Dist 3: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1m dirt 62 · 27 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	PRX	1m D	OC 16k	6th/7 -18L	51	20-1	L	Gave way readily
9/8	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k n2l	3rd/6 -7½L	63	8.7-1	L	Far back; rail advance
8/17	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k b	2nd/7 -1L	74	35-1	L	Rail; could not get by

Case: Last out 6th/7 -18L in the fOC16000 at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 51-63-74. Best at today's distance 62. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-5 at Parx Racing. J. Santaella-Calderon / E. Ruiz.

Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #8 Blame Eve ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -9 ★ Best at 1m dirt: 81 ▲ Lone speed on early pace Last out 6th/10 -8L in the fClm7500n2lc at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 57-67-65. Best at today's distance 81. 1-for-3 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Parx Racing. R. Mosco / M. Sanchez. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey M. Sanchez · Trainer R. Mosco · KEE 3: 1-1-0 · Dist 3: 1-1-1 · best fig at 1m dirt 81 · 34 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2lc	6th/10 -8L	57	2.3-1	b L	Forced pace; weakened
8/26	PRX	1m D	MCL 10kc	Won/5	67	0.5-1	b L	Stalked; bid; driving
7/13	PRX	1 1/16 D	MCL 30k	2nd/7	65	2.0-1	b L	Long duel; held gamely

Longshot #1 Catrina Zar ML 15-1 Fair 15-1 Model #5 ▼ Down -5 ▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey S. Gonzalez · Trainer R. Perez · KEE 9: 0-0-0 · Dist 4: 1-0-0 · best fig at 1m dirt 68 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	6th/7 -7L	53	27-1	b L	Close wide; faltered
9/29	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	4th/10 -12L	59	77-1	b L	Far back; rail advance
9/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	7th/11 -9L	63	62-1	b L	Urged turn; gave way

Case: Last out 6th/7 -7L in the fClm7500n2l at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 53-59-63. Best at today's distance 68. 1-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-9 at Parx Racing. R. Perez / S. Gonzalez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #7, #8 · B #1, #2, #4 · C #5, #6

Angles: #1 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #4 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #6 Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #7 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #8 Lone speed on early pace

R6 Parx Racing · Claiming $7,500

2:20 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $21,000 · 8 runners2:20 PM · 1m Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $21K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Catrina Zar▼LSS. Gonzalez · R. PerezGonzalez · PerezB53 59 63▼-5@trip 6815-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -553 59 63@trip 68B▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 74LS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 59 63

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 74LS

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Silvestre Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-50 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Ruperto A Perez 30% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Yourownspecialway 2-1, R7: Cannonbury 3-1 · Trainer R9: Noulikeabook 6-1

0/9 board here

Best recent figure is 63, well under the 74 par for this level. Trending the wrong way on speed, 63 to 59 to 53.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Close wide; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 84 days ago

RECORD Not on the board in 9 starts here

RECORD Silvestre Gonzalez from post 1 here: 27 wins, 95 top-3 in 182 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	6th/7 -7L	53	27-1	b L	Close wide; faltered
9/29	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	4th/10 -12L	59	77-1	b L	Far back; rail advance
9/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	7th/11 -9L	63	62-1	b L	Urged turn; gave way

2Ranting and RavingL. Ocasio · T. HagemeierOcasio · HagemeierB51 64 65▼▼-13@trip 635-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -1351 64 65@trip 63B

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 64 65

Jockey Luis M Ocasio 26% career 6-for-64 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Teresa Hagemeier 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Union Purrfection 15-1, R4: Itsagrandplacetobe 5-2

CLASS DROP

New trainer: Martinez Elliott Soto- had it last time, Teresa Hagemeier now. Finished 9th in a 10-horse $7,500 claiming race at PRX, beaten 16 lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Weakened steadily. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 86d ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Luis M Ocasio from post 2 here: 10 wins, 58 top-3 in 161 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2lc	9th/10 -16L	51	5.8-1	b L	Weakened steadily
9/8	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k n2l	2nd/6 -6L	64	3.8-1	b L	Bid turn; no match
8/17	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k bc	4th/7 -4L	65	0.9-1	b L	Forced pace wide;empty

3Noble AnnieE. Ruiz · J. Santaella-CalderonRuiz · Santaella-CalderonA51 63 74▼▼-10↕@trip 622-1Fair 3-124%▼▼ Big drop -1051 63 74 ↕@trip 62A2

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–74 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 63 74

Jockey Eliseo Ruiz 31% career 8-for-68 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jose M Santaella-Calderon 22% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Brandenburg Gate 8-1, R4: Schubert Sonata 6-1, R5: Peaches N Dreams 5-1, R7: Penniless Pauly 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Union Purrfection 15-1

3/5 board here

Last out was 6th, 18 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse optional claiming race at PRX. Figures have slipped: 74, 63, 51 over its last three.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 12d back

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Eliseo Ruiz from post 3 here: 32 wins, 94 top-3 in 192 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	PRX	1m D	OC 16k	6th/7 -18L	51	20-1	L	Gave way readily
9/8	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k n2l	3rd/6 -7½L	63	8.7-1	L	Far back; rail advance
8/17	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k b	2nd/7 -1L	74	35-1	L	Rail; could not get by

4Eleanor Rigby▼K. Rivera · E. Betancourt Jr.Rivera · Betancourt Jr.B56 61 66▼▼-8@trip 5815-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -856 61 66@trip 58B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 74

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 58 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 61 66

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey Kendry Rivera 34% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Eli Jr Betancourt 20% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%)

CLASS DROP

Gets a new rider, Kendry Rivera replacing Adam Bowman. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled badly start. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 0 works in 30d and the last 38d back

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Kendry Rivera from post 4 here: 8 wins, 24 top-3 in 60 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	7th/10 -15L	56	30-1	b L	Stumbled badly start
8/27	PEN	1m T	OC 16k	4th/8 -3¾L	61	29-1	b L	Rallied; too late
6/26	PEN	1m T	Clm 10k n2l	2nd/6 -½L	66	36-1	b L	Led;svd gnd;chase on

5KeystormrisingA. Bowman · A. BedardBowman · BedardC48 30 45▲+6↕@trip 7020-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +648 30 45 ↕@trip 70C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 30–52 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 48 30 45

Jockey Adam Bowman 28% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Alan Bedard 18% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Lunar Rocket 10-1, R5: Emily Sloan 15-1

CLASS DROP

A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today. A 58 is the high figure lately, short of the 74 par.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 23d ago

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD Adam Bowman from post 5 here: 7 wins, 29 top-3 in 116 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	8th/9 -12L	48	97-1	b L	Inside; no factor
9/8	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k n2l	6th/6 -26L	30	56-1	b L	Trailed throughout
7/18	PRX	7f D	fsClm12500b	4th/5 -8L	45	6.9-1	b L	Dwelt start; no bid

6Nouveau Riche▼L. Avila · A. RomeroAvila · RomeroC53 52 50►≡20-1Fair 99-11%► Steady53 52 50 ≡C▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 74

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 50–53 · Last 3 figs 53 52 50

▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey Luis Avila 14% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Alexis Romero 26% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

0/14 board here

Beaten 10 lengths for 5th in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at PRX. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 53 against a 74 par.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 100 days ago

RECORD Never on the board here in 14 starts

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	5th/7 -10L	53	74-1	b L	Inside; never involved
9/30	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k n2l	7th/9 -10L	52	118-1	b L	Never in contention
9/1	PRX	5½f D	Clm 5k n1y	7th/8 -12L	50	93-1	b L	Wide; always outrun

7Shes the Tall One▼M. Gonzalez · J. ArceGonzalez · ArceA62 61 60►≡@trip 659-5Fair 5-231%► Steady62 61 60 ≡@trip 65A▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 741

Card model 31% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 60–65 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 61 60

▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey Melvis Gonzalez 33% career ★ 6-for-23 on dirt this meet (26%), #1 of 32 · Trainer Josue Arce 31% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Lex 4-1

Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 5 at the first call. Carries 119 pounds, 8 more than last time.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 79d back)

RECORD Melvis Gonzalez from post 7 here: 7 wins, 15 top-3 in 46 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	DEL	1 1/16 D	Clm 8k n2l	2nd/5 -7½L	62	1.7-1	b L	3-4p;kept on;edged plc
10/2	DEL	1m D	Clm 8k n2l	7th/10 -6¾L	61	11-1	b L	Ins;6-w uppr;no bid
9/5	DEL	1m D	Clm 7k n2lc	3rd/5 -1L	60	0.8-1	b L	In contention; hung

8Blame Eve▲★M. Sanchez · R. MoscoSanchez · MoscoA57 67 65▼▼-9@trip 813-1Fair 7-222%▼▼ Big drop -957 67 65@trip 81A▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 813

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 67 65

▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 81

Jockey Magglio Sanchez 37% career 26-for-131 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Robert Mosco 31% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Gypsy Lane 5-1, R5: Minxzmajestkmystic 8-1, R9: Twist Her 4-1

2/3 board here

Changes barns, from Michael V Pino to Robert Mosco. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 81, with 74 next best.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 44d back)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Magglio Sanchez from post 8 here: 48 wins, 90 top-3 in 165 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2lc	6th/10 -8L	57	2.3-1	b L	Forced pace; weakened
8/26	PRX	1m D	MCL 10kc	Won/5	67	0.5-1	b L	Stalked; bid; driving
7/13	PRX	1 1/16 D	MCL 30k	2nd/7	65	2.0-1	b L	Long duel; held gamely

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #2 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Claiming $7,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$21,000

Post

2:20 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#7 · 31%

Claiming $7,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.51

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #7 Shes The Tall One (a closer, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 62 · 61 · 60. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Noble Annie at 2-1. Use #8 Blame Eve in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 SHES THE TALL ONE (9-5) — our number agrees.
#7 SHES THE TALL ONE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.9% to their 26.9%).
#3 NOBLE ANNIE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.1% to their 25.1%).
#8 BLAME EVE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 18.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Ranting And Raving; pressure from #8 Blame Eve; the shape helps #1 Catrina Zar, #6 Nouveau Riche, #8 Blame Eve; and works against #2 Ranting And Raving.

Lead

2Ranting And Raving84

Press

8Blame Eve90

Stalk

1Catrina Zar756Nouveau Riche71

7Shes The Tall One763Noble Annie725Keystormrising674Eleanor Rigby63

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Blame Eve

Ranting And Raving

Catrina Zar

Nouveau Riche

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Noble Annie

Shes The Tall One

Eleanor Rigby

Keystormrising

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8)

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 6-9) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.