Pick sheet

Race 51:53 PM Md Sp Wt

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Yourownspecialway, is 34% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #5.

Top pick #3 Yourownspecialway ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 76

Jockey S. Gonzalez · Trainer K. Crook-Demasi · KEE 2: 0-1-1 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	PRX	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/9 -6L	77	4.0-1		Blocked turn; rallied
8/25	PRX	5½f D	MSW	3rd/7 -6L	59	3.8-1		Vied winner; weakened

Case: Last out 2nd in the fsMdSpWt at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 77-59. 0-for-2 at Parx Racing. K. Crook-Demasi / S. Gonzalez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5½f).

Contender #5 Mommy Makeover ML 4-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 76 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey F. Pennington · Trainer J. Servis · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	PRX	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/9 -7½L	51	2.4-1		Set pace; faltered

Case: Last out 7th/9 -7½L in the fsMdSpWt at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 51. 0-for-1 at Parx Racing. J. Servis / F. Pennington.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5½f).

Use #2 Holy Ground ML 5-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 First career start. B. Kulp / A. Rodriguez. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey A. Rodriguez · Trainer B. Kulp · Debut

First start. By Midshipman out of All Too Well (Quality Road)

Trainer B. Kulp: 1st-time starters: 17% wins, 44% in the money (54 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 20% wins, 55% in the money (20 starts) · Maiden special weights: 26% wins, 56% in the money (61 starts)

Jockey A. Rodriguez in sprints: 62 wins from 221 (28%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	PEN	5f	1:01.40	breezing	3/11	from gate
10/16	PEN	5f	1:03.40	breezing	6/7	from gate
10/14	PEN	4f	:51.60	breezing	10/11
10/7	PEN	4f	:47.80	breezing	3/18
9/26	PEN	4f	:49.20	breezing	16/34

Narrowing the field: A #3, #5, #7 · B #8 · ? #1, #2, #4, #6 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #3 Last fig 77 at/above par 76 · #5 Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 76 · #5 Lone speed on early pace · #7 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 76 · #8 Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 76

R5 Parx Racing · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

1:53 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $60,000 · 8 runners1:53 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $60K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1ArrestinglyJ. Rangel · D. DotoloRangel · Dotolo?12-1Fair 30-13%—Debut?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Joezer Rangel 25% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer David Dotolo 15% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R7: Kpnupwiththejones 12-1 · Trainer R7: Kpnupwiththejones 12-1
Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Command Post and Billygets Arrested breeding. First start, and Prime Power already has it ranked first here.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 17d back
RECORD Joezer Rangel from post 1 here: 6 wins, 25 top-3 in 56 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Command Post out of Billygets Arrested (Louis Quatorze)
Trainer D. Dotolo: 1st-time starters: 29% wins, 43% in the money (7 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 25% wins, 50% in the money (4 starts) · Maiden special weights: 17% wins, 39% in the money (23 starts)
Jockey J. Rangel in sprints: 7 wins from 112 (6%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/16 PRX 4f :54.00 breezing 16/16
10/3 PRX 4f :48.80 breezing 26/56 from gate
9/18 PRX 4f :50.40 breezing 23/26 from gate
8/22 PRX 4f :52.00 breezing 57/64
7/25 PRX 4f :50.80 breezing 79/98 from gate
2Holy GroundA. Rodriguez · B. KulpRodriguez · Kulp?5-1Fair 5-116%—Debut?3
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Angel R Rodriguez 34% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Brandon L Kulp 42% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Warrior's Finale 5-2, R4: Prayed Up 5-1, R7: Sixty Six Books 5-1 · Trainer R1: Warrior's Finale 5-2, R1: Vandalism 7-2, R4: Prayed Up 5-1, this race: Peaches N Dreams 5-1 +1 more
Jky 13/32 from post 2
Unraced; this barn has 54 first-time starters on record and wins 17% of them. Worked 5F in 1:01.40 on Oct 24, 3rd fastest of 11 that morning.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 9d back
RECORD Angel R Rodriguez from post 2 here: 13 wins, 20 top-3 in 32 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Midshipman out of All Too Well (Quality Road)
Trainer B. Kulp: 1st-time starters: 17% wins, 44% in the money (54 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 20% wins, 55% in the money (20 starts) · Maiden special weights: 26% wins, 56% in the money (61 starts)
Jockey A. Rodriguez in sprints: 62 wins from 221 (28%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 PEN 5f 1:01.40 breezing 3/11 from gate
10/16 PEN 5f 1:03.40 breezing 6/7 from gate
10/14 PEN 4f :51.60 breezing 10/11
10/7 PEN 4f :47.80 breezing 3/18
9/26 PEN 4f :49.20 breezing 16/34
3Yourownspecialway▲S. Gonzalez · K. Crook-DemasiGonzalez · Crook-DemasiA77 592-1Fair 2-134%—77 59A▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 761
Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 77 59
▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 76
Jockey Silvestre Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-50 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Kathlee Crook-Demasi
Also today · Jockey R6: Catrina Zar 15-1, R7: Cannonbury 3-1 · Trainer R7: Cannonbury 3-1
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE
Owns the highest recent figure here at 77. Beaten 6 lengths for 2nd in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at PRX.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage. (early-speed points: 6)
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Blocked turn; rallied. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 33d ago
RECORD Silvestre Gonzalez from post 3 here: 28 wins, 72 top-3 in 178 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 PRX 5½f D fsMdSpWt 2nd/9 -6L 77 4.0-1 Blocked turn; rallied
8/25 PRX 5½f D MSW 3rd/7 -6L 59 3.8-1 Vied winner; weakened
4Emily SloanA. Bowman · F. MannBowman · Mann?15-1Fair 50-12%—Debut?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Adam Bowman 28% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Farrel Mann 16% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Lunar Rocket 10-1, R6: Keystormrising 20-1
Jky 17/127 from post 4
No race yet; there is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 3. Debut for this Wicked Strong filly, whose dam is Best Around.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago
RECORD Adam Bowman from post 4 here: 17 wins, 33 top-3 in 127 rides · 7% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Wicked Strong out of Best Around (Allen's Prospect)
Trainer F. Mann: Maiden special weights: 0% wins, 0% in the money (4 starts)
Jockey A. Bowman in sprints: 2 wins from 118 (2%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 PRX 4f :49.80 breezing 35/51
10/10 PRX 5f 1:02.80 breezing 14/22
10/3 PRX 4f :50.20 breezing 46/56 from gate
9/20 PRX 4f :48.60 breezing 16/58
9/9 PRX 4f :51.80 breezing 37/39
5Mommy Makeover▼▲F. Pennington · J. ServisPennington · ServisA514-1Fair 5-116%—51A▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 76▲ Lone speed on early pace2
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 51
▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 76▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey F Pennington 34% career 4-for-42 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer John C Servis 35% career 3-for-28 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R7: Snipe Hunt 4-1 · Trainer R4: Vital 3-1, R9: Miss Anna Bella 7-2
★ FASTEST WORK
Best recent figure is 51, well under the 76 par for this level. 7th last time, 7½ lengths back, in a field of 9.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage. (early-speed points: 6)
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Set pace; faltered. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 31d ago
RECORD F Pennington from post 5 here: 27 wins, 67 top-3 in 158 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 PRX 5½f D fsMdSpWt 7th/9 -7½L 51 2.4-1 Set pace; faltered
6MinxzmajestkmysticM. Sanchez · J. ServisSanchez · Servis?8-1Fair 10-19%—Debut?
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Magglio Sanchez 37% career 26-for-131 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer J Tyler Servis 35% career 3-for-28 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Gypsy Lane 5-1, R6: Blame Eve 3-1, R9: Twist Her 4-1 · Trainer R1: Gypsy Lane 5-1
First-time starter from a barn that wins 15% of the time with them (39 tried). With 9 works on record, the first on Aug 15.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 5d ago
RECORD Magglio Sanchez from post 6 here: 56 wins, 127 top-3 in 248 rides · 26% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Tom's D'etat out of Extrasexyexotkminx (Silver Train)
Trainer J. Servis: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 31% in the money (39 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 11% wins, 21% in the money (19 starts) · Maiden special weights: 9% wins, 36% in the money (55 starts)
Jockey M. Sanchez in sprints: 11 wins from 66 (17%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/28 PRX 4f :49.40 breezing 19/38
10/20 PRX 4f :50.60 breezing 34/38
10/10 PRX 4f :50.20 breezing 69/85
9/30 PRX 4f :50.20 breezing 71/84
9/19 PRX 4f :49.80 breezing 20/30
7Peaches N Dreams▼E. Ruiz · B. KulpRuiz · KulpA625-1Fair 6-114%—62A▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 76
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 62
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 76
Jockey Eliseo Ruiz 31% career 8-for-68 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Brandon L Kulp 42% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Brandenburg Gate 8-1, R4: Schubert Sonata 6-1, R6: Noble Annie 2-1, R7: Penniless Pauly 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Warrior's Finale 5-2, R1: Vandalism 7-2, R4: Prayed Up 5-1, this race: Holy Ground 5-1 +1 more
Finished 3rd in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at PRX, beaten 15 lengths. Was 9th of 9 at the first call last time.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 26d back)
RECORD Eliseo Ruiz from post 7 here: 21 wins, 81 top-3 in 155 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 PRX 5½f D fsMdSpWt 3rd/9 -15L 62 18-1 Far back; late energy
8First Blush▼J. Rodriguez · N. DavilaRodriguez · DavilaB61 59@trip 616-1Fair 15-16%—61 59@trip 61B▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 76
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 59
▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 76
Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Nesvil B Davila 16% career
Also today · Jockey R8: Olympic Dreamer 8-1, R9: Tap And A Hug 6-1
Nesvil B Davila takes over the training from Nesvil Hernan Bailon. Moves up from maiden claiming $50,000 to maiden special weight.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 13d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 DEL 6f D MCL 50k 4th/8 -3L 61 6.0-1 b Lacked late response
8/22 DEL 5f D MSW 4th/7 -4L 59 6.4-1 b Rail; flattened out

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/16	PRX	4f	:54.00	breezing	16/16
10/3	PRX	4f	:48.80	breezing	26/56	from gate
9/18	PRX	4f	:50.40	breezing	23/26	from gate
8/22	PRX	4f	:52.00	breezing	57/64
7/25	PRX	4f	:50.80	breezing	79/98	from gate

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	PRX	4f	:49.80	breezing	35/51
10/10	PRX	5f	1:02.80	breezing	14/22
10/3	PRX	4f	:50.20	breezing	46/56	from gate
9/20	PRX	4f	:48.60	breezing	16/58
9/9	PRX	4f	:51.80	breezing	37/39

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/28	PRX	4f	:49.40	breezing	19/38
10/20	PRX	4f	:50.60	breezing	34/38
10/10	PRX	4f	:50.20	breezing	69/85
9/30	PRX	4f	:50.20	breezing	71/84
9/19	PRX	4f	:49.80	breezing	20/30

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	PRX	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/9 -15L	62	18-1		Far back; late energy

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	DEL	6f D	MCL 50k	4th/8 -3L	61	6.0-1	b	Lacked late response
8/22	DEL	5f D	MSW	4th/7 -4L	59	6.4-1	b	Rail; flattened out

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #5.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 5

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

8 runners

Purse

$60,000

Post

1:53 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#3 · 34%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.21

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Yourownspecialway (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 77 · 59. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Mommy Makeover at 4-1. Use #2 Holy Ground in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 YOUROWNSPECIALWAY (2-1) — our number agrees.
#3 YOUROWNSPECIALWAY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.5% to their 26.5%).
#5 MOMMY MAKEOVER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 15.9%).
#2 HOLY GROUND — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.4%, they've got 13.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 HOLY GROUND — we make it 15.4%, the morning line works out to 13.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #5 Mommy Makeover; pressure from #3 Yourownspecialway.

Lead

5Mommy Makeover983Yourownspecialway96

Press

none

Stalk

8First Blush82

7Peaches N Dreams67

No style yet

1Arrestingly2Holy Ground4Emily Sloan6Minxzmajestkmystic

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Mommy Makeover

Yourownspecialway

First Blush

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Peaches N Dreams

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Bet types

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DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) / EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA

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