Pick sheet

Race 112:05 PM Md Sp Wt

6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Warrior's Finale, is 26% to win (morning line implies 23%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #3 Warrior's Finale ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1

Jockey A. Rodriguez · Trainer B. Kulp · Debut

First start. By Warrior's Reward out of Blushing Humor (Distorted Humor)

Trainer B. Kulp: 1st-time starters: 17% wins, 44% in the money (54 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 20% wins, 55% in the money (20 starts) · Maiden special weights: 26% wins, 56% in the money (61 starts)

Jockey A. Rodriguez in sprints: 62 wins from 221 (28%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/28	PEN	3f	:40.00	breezing	2/2	from gate
10/22	PEN	4f	:48.00	breezing	3/15
10/9	PEN	4f	:49.40	breezing	16/25
9/18	PEN	5f	1:02.80	breezing	4/6	from gate
9/9	PEN	5f	1:02.40	breezing	2/3

Case: First career start. B. Kulp / A. Rodriguez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #4 Vandalism ML 7-2 Fair 9-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 76 1st-time blinkers

Jockey P. Lopez · Trainer B. Kulp · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	PRX	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/9 -14L	62	6.6-1		Lacked speed; late bid
8/26	PEN	5f D	MSW	2nd/6 -6L	66	1.3-1		Chased ins;no match

Case: Last out 4th/9 -14L in the fsMdSpWt at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 62-66. 0-for-1 at Parx Racing. B. Kulp / P. Lopez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5½f).

Use #1 Tengo Esperanza ML 5-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 76 ▲ Lone speed on early pace Last out 5th/9 -9½L in the fsMdSpWt at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 56. 0-for-1 at Parx Racing. G. Preciado / M. Sanchez. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5½f).

Jockey M. Sanchez · Trainer G. Preciado · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	PRX	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/9 -9½L	56	5.8-1		Forced pace; faltered

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4 · ? #2, #3, #5, #6, #7 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 76 · #1 Lone speed on early pace · #4 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 76

R1 Parx Racing · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

12:05 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $60,000 · 7 runners12:05 PM · 6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $60K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Tengo Esperanza▼▲M. Sanchez · G. PreciadoSanchez · PreciadoA565-1Fair 6-115%—56A▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 76▲ Lone speed on early pace3
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 56
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 76▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career 26-for-131 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Guadalupe Preciado 32% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Cojelo Pa Ti 2-1, R8: Flying Free 4-1 · Trainer R8: Olympic Dreamer 8-1
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 56 against a 76 par. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Forced pace; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.80 on Sep 5 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 1 here: 84 wins, 167 top-3 in 273 rides · 26% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 PRX 5½f D fsMdSpWt 5th/9 -9½L 56 5.8-1 Forced pace; faltered
2Gypsy LaneM. Sanchez · J. ServisSanchez · Servis?5-1Fair 7-113%—Debut?
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Magglio Sanchez 37% career 26-for-131 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer J Tyler Servis 35% career 3-for-28 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R5: Minxzmajestkmystic 8-1, R6: Blame Eve 3-1, R9: Twist Her 4-1 · Trainer R5: Minxzmajestkmystic 8-1
Debut for a Yaupon youngster; the sire's listed stud fee is $50,000. First-time starter from a barn that wins 15% of the time with them (39 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 5d ago
RECORD Magglio Sanchez from post 2 here: 80 wins, 164 top-3 in 270 rides · 26% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Yaupon out of Christina's Comet (Successful Appeal)
Trainer J. Servis: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 31% in the money (39 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 11% wins, 21% in the money (19 starts) · Maiden special weights: 9% wins, 36% in the money (55 starts)
Jockey M. Sanchez in sprints: 11 wins from 66 (17%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/28 PRX 3f :36.80 breezing 3/9
10/20 PRX 5f 1:03.80 breezing 3/3
10/10 PRX 4f :49.80 breezing 55/85
9/17 PRX 4f :49.60 breezing 5/10
9/9 PRX 3f :36.60 breezing 2/6 from gate
3Warrior's FinaleA. Rodriguez · B. KulpRodriguez · Kulp?5-2Fair 3-126%—Debut?1
Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier ?
Jockey Angel R Rodriguez 34% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Brandon L Kulp 42% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R4: Prayed Up 5-1, R5: Holy Ground 5-1, R7: Sixty Six Books 5-1 · Trainer this race: Vandalism 7-2, R4: Prayed Up 5-1, R5: Holy Ground 5-1, R5: Peaches N Dreams 5-1 +1 more
Debut for a trainer who is 17% with first-timers, over 54 starts. On Oct 22 it was 3rd of 15 at 4F (:48.00).
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 5d ago
RECORD Angel R Rodriguez from post 3 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 26 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Warrior's Reward out of Blushing Humor (Distorted Humor)
Trainer B. Kulp: 1st-time starters: 17% wins, 44% in the money (54 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 20% wins, 55% in the money (20 starts) · Maiden special weights: 26% wins, 56% in the money (61 starts)
Jockey A. Rodriguez in sprints: 62 wins from 221 (28%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/28 PEN 3f :40.00 breezing 2/2 from gate
10/22 PEN 4f :48.00 breezing 3/15
10/9 PEN 4f :49.40 breezing 16/25
9/18 PEN 5f 1:02.80 breezing 4/6 from gate
9/9 PEN 5f 1:02.40 breezing 2/3
4Vandalism▼P. Lopez · B. KulpLopez · KulpA62 667-2Fair 9-218%—62 66A▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 762
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 62 66
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 76
Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 11-for-63 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Brandon L Kulp 42% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Riley's Rockstar 9-2, R4: Third Bite 6-1, R7: Chef Sparrow 9-5, R8: Welovemollynteddy 2-1 · Trainer this race: Warrior's Finale 5-2, R4: Prayed Up 5-1, R5: Holy Ground 5-1, R5: Peaches N Dreams 5-1 +1 more
Finished 4th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at PRX, beaten 14 lengths. Jockey switch: Angel R Rodriguez last out, Pascacio Lopez today.
PACE HELPS Has the front end to itself on paper, with no one to pressure it early. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 26d back)
RECORD Pascacio Lopez from post 4 here: 32 wins, 92 top-3 in 147 rides · 22% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 PRX 5½f D fsMdSpWt 4th/9 -14L 62 6.6-1 Lacked speed; late bid
8/26 PEN 5f D MSW 2nd/6 -6L 66 1.3-1 Chased ins;no match
5HoneysmakemoneyA. Hernandez · M. MooreHernandez · Moore?4-1Fair 6-114%—Debut?
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Andy Hernandez 38% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Michael M Moore 33% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R4: My Pretty Boy 4-1 · Trainer R9: Twist Her 4-1
Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 24). Debut for this Wicked Strong filly, whose dam is Goodonehoney.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago
RECORD Andy Hernandez from post 5 here: 15 wins, 51 top-3 in 134 rides · 17% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Wicked Strong out of Goodonehoney (Great Notion)
Trainer M. Moore: 1st-time starters: 25% wins, 50% in the money (12 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 33% wins, 67% in the money (9 starts) · Maiden special weights: 24% wins, 48% in the money (25 starts)
Jockey A. Hernandez in sprints: 31 wins from 196 (16%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 PRX 5f 1:01.40 breezing 5/10 from gate
10/16 PRX 5f 1:02.60 breezing 5/7
10/10 PRX 4f :48.60 breezing 20/85
9/30 PRX 4f :49.60 breezing 61/84
9/20 PRX 4f :48.60 breezing 17/58
6So NobleR. Silvera · M. ShumanSilvera · Shuman?8-1Fair 12-18%—Debut?
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Ruben Silvera 32% career ★ 15-for-59 on dirt this meet (25%), #2 of 32 · Trainer Mark Shuman 25% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Cassation 5-1, R8: Miss Ma'am 6-1, R9: Endless Glow 9-2
First start coming, and it has been busy in the mornings: 7 works since Aug 22. First career start, by Jimmy Creed out of Noble Enterprise.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 10d ago
RECORD Ruben Silvera from post 6 here: 24 wins, 74 top-3 in 157 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Jimmy Creed out of Noble Enterprise (Noble Mission)
Trainer M. Shuman: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 23% in the money (26 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 24% in the money (17 starts) · Maiden special weights: 5% wins, 25% in the money (56 starts)
Jockey R. Silvera in sprints: 46 wins from 321 (14%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 FAI 4f :50.20 breezing 10/14 from gate
10/10 FAI 5f 1:02.80 breezing 5/9
10/2 FAI 5f 1:02.60 breezing 5/8
9/26 FAI 4f :50.40 breezing 34/48
9/19 FAI 4f :50.40 breezing 16/18
7Brandenburg GateE. Ruiz · H. PadillaRuiz · Padilla?8-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Eliseo Ruiz 31% career 8-for-68 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Hugo O Padilla 32% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Schubert Sonata 6-1, R5: Peaches N Dreams 5-1, R6: Noble Annie 2-1, R7: Penniless Pauly 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Schubert Sonata 6-1, R4: My Pretty Boy 4-1, R7: Snipe Hunt 4-1
Unraced; this barn has 39 first-time starters on record and wins 5% of them. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Sep 30.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 9 days ago
RECORD Eliseo Ruiz from post 7 here: 21 wins, 81 top-3 in 155 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Weigelia out of Avery's Smile (Uptowncharlybrown)
Trainer H. Padilla: 1st-time starters: 5% wins, 36% in the money (39 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 32% in the money (19 starts) · Maiden special weights: 12% wins, 43% in the money (77 starts)
Jockey E. Ruiz in sprints: 46 wins from 241 (19%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 PRX 4f :49.80 breezing 29/51
10/10 PRX 5f 1:02.00 breezing 10/22
9/30 PRX 5f 1:01.00 breezing 8/29 from gate
9/16 PRX 4f :48.40 breezing 9/28
9/5 PRX 4f :48.20 breezing 21/74

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/28	PRX	3f	:36.80	breezing	3/9
10/20	PRX	5f	1:03.80	breezing	3/3
10/10	PRX	4f	:49.80	breezing	55/85
9/17	PRX	4f	:49.60	breezing	5/10
9/9	PRX	3f	:36.60	breezing	2/6	from gate

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	PRX	5f	1:01.40	breezing	5/10	from gate
10/16	PRX	5f	1:02.60	breezing	5/7
10/10	PRX	4f	:48.60	breezing	20/85
9/30	PRX	4f	:49.60	breezing	61/84
9/20	PRX	4f	:48.60	breezing	17/58

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	FAI	4f	:50.20	breezing	10/14	from gate
10/10	FAI	5f	1:02.80	breezing	5/9
10/2	FAI	5f	1:02.60	breezing	5/8
9/26	FAI	4f	:50.40	breezing	34/48
9/19	FAI	4f	:50.40	breezing	16/18

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	PRX	4f	:49.80	breezing	29/51
10/10	PRX	5f	1:02.00	breezing	10/22
9/30	PRX	5f	1:01.00	breezing	8/29	from gate
9/16	PRX	4f	:48.40	breezing	9/28
9/5	PRX	4f	:48.20	breezing	21/74

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 1

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

7 runners

Purse

$60,000

Post

12:05 PM ET

Pace

Wire-To-Wire Likely

Card model top pick

#3 · 26%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.21

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Warrior's Finale (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Backup is #4 Vandalism at 7-2. Use #1 Tengo Esperanza in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 WARRIOR'S FINALE (5-2) — our number agrees.
#3 WARRIOR'S FINALE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.4% to their 22.6%).
#4 VANDALISM — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 17.6%).
#5 HONEYSMAKEMONEY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.6% to their 15.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Wire-To-Wire Likely. One speed type with no pressure. Lone speed often dictates fractions and walks the dog.

Likely leader: #4 Vandalism; the shape helps #4 Vandalism; and works against #1 Tengo Esperanza, #2 Gypsy Lane, #3 Warrior's Finale.

Lead

4Vandalism85

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Tengo Esperanza952Gypsy Lane3Warrior's Finale5Honeysmakemoney6So Noble7Brandenburg Gate

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Vandalism

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Tengo Esperanza

Vandalism

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Bet types

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DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3)

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 1-4) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

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