Pick sheet

Race 212:32 PM Clm 7500Early Pick 4 starts

6F · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Cojelo Pa Ti, is 34% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #4 Cojelo Pa Ti ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best ▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 81

Jockey M. Sanchez · Trainer P. Aristone · KEE 22: 7-1-4 · Dist 12: 5-0-4 · best fig at 6f dirt 87 · 12 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n2yc	Won/10	87	1.1-1	b L	Stalked; bid; drew off
10/13	PRX	6f D	OC 10k	3rd/7 -1L	81	6.5-1	b L	Long rail duel; tired
9/18	PRX	6f D	Clm 10k	Won/8 by hd	83	3.8-1	b L	Carried out stretch;up

Case: Last out won in the Clm5000n2yc at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 87-81-83. Best at today's distance 87. 5-for-12 at the distance. 7-for-22 at Parx Racing. P. Aristone / M. Sanchez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #1 Lex ML 4-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +14 ★ Best at 6f dirt: 89 ▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 81

Jockey M. Gonzalez · Trainer J. Guerrero · KEE 13: 3-2-4 · Dist 9: 3-3-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 89 · 26 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n4l	Won/7	88	0.7-1	b L	Controlled pace; drive
9/28	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k n4l	3rd/8 -3½L	76	0.9-1	b L	Vied winner; yielded
6/30	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k n4lc	3rd/6 by hd	75	1.0-1	b L	Vied inside; weakened

Case: Last out won in the Clm7500n4l at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 88-76-75. Best at today's distance 89. 3-for-9 at the distance. 3-for-13 at Parx Racing. J. Guerrero / M. Gonzalez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #6 Carnaby ML 3-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -6 Last out 3rd in the Clm7500c at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 73-81-88. Best at today's distance 84. 2-for-8 at the distance. 5-for-22 at Parx Racing. E. Tzortzakis / S. Orellana. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey S. Orellana · Trainer E. Tzortzakis · KEE 22: 5-4-2 · Dist 8: 2-2-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 84 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k c	3rd/7	73	0.8-1	b L	Repelled foe; weakened
9/18	PRX	6f D	Clm 10k c	2nd/8	81	2.4-1	b L	Led; drifted out badly
8/18	PRX	6½f D	OC 16k n1x	Won/9	88	5.3-1	b L	Drifted out st; lasted

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #6 · B #2, #3, #5

Angles: #1 Last fig 88 at/above par 81 · #4 Last fig 87 at/above par 81 · #5 Last fig 86 at/above par 81

R2 Parx Racing · Claiming $7,500

12:32 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $24,000 · 6 runners12:32 PM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $24K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Lex▲★M. Gonzalez · J. GuerreroGonzalez · GuerreroA88 76 75▲▲+14@trip 894-1Fair 5-117%▲▲ Big jump +1488 76 75@trip 89A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 81★ Best at the trip 892

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 76 75

▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 81★ Best at the trip 89

Jockey Melvis Gonzalez 33% career ★ 6-for-23 on dirt this meet (26%), #1 of 32 · Trainer J Carlos Guerrero 31% career ★ 9-for-38 on dirt this meet (24%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Shes The Tall One 9-5

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST6/10 board here

Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at PRX at 0.7-1. Tops the field on speed figures, an 89 against 88 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 51d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Melvis Gonzalez from post 1 here: 16 wins, 33 top-3 in 67 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n4l	Won/7	88	0.7-1	b L	Controlled pace; drive
9/28	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k n4l	3rd/8 -3½L	76	0.9-1	b L	Vied winner; yielded
6/30	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k n4lc	3rd/6 by hd	75	1.0-1	b L	Vied inside; weakened

2Hey BuddyC. Hargrove · E. PadillaHargrove · PadillaB67 77 85▼▼-9@trip 855-1Fair 7-112%▼▼ Big drop -967 77 85@trip 85B

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 77 85

Jockey Camila Hargrove 14% career 5-for-29 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Esteban Padilla 32% career ★ 6-for-18 on dirt this meet (33%), #1 of 48

Also today · Jockey R9: No Mo Muffins 8-1 · Trainer this race: Cassation 5-1

4/8 board here

Esteban Padilla takes over the training from Ernesto Padilla-Preciado. Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and $7,500 claiming now.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k	4th/7 -6½L	67	9.1-1	L	Two path; flattened
8/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k	7th/14 -5½L	77	14-1	L	Very wide turn; lane
8/6	PEN	6f D	RHP 20-40	Won/5	85	2.5-1	L	Ins;headed upr;resurge

3Float onJ. Vargas Jr. · S. LakeVargas Jr. · LakeB65 79 83▼▼-16@trip 849-2Fair 10-19%▼▼ Big drop -1665 79 83@trip 84B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 79 83

Jockey Jorge A Jr Vargas 29% career 10-for-51 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Scott A Lake 28% career 3-for-42 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Trainer R3: Admiral's Wave 7-2, R3: Riley's Rockstar 9-2

Trending the wrong way on speed, 83 to 79 to 65. New trainer: Josue Arce had it last time, Scott A Lake now.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 179d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	PRX	6f D	OC 10k	7th/7 -8½L	65	5.0-1	b L	Forced pace wide; fade
9/30	DEL	5½f D	OC 10k	3rd/7 -3½L	79	15-1	b L	5wd bid; gaining late
9/11	DEL	6f D	OC 12k	5th/8 -1L	83	7.9-1	b L	Vied; not enough late

4Cojelo Pa Ti▲M. Sanchez · P. AristoneSanchez · AristoneA87 81 83▲▲+9@trip 872-1Fair 2-134%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best87 81 83@trip 87A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 811

Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 87 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 81 83

▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 81

Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career 26-for-131 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Philip T Aristone 21% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Tengo Esperanza 5-1, R8: Flying Free 4-1

WON LAST

Has won 5 of 12 going today's distance. Won last out in a 10-horse $5,000 claiming race at PRX.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

SHARP LAST OUT Stalked; bid; drew off last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 65d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 4 here: 73 wins, 169 top-3 in 287 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n2yc	Won/10	87	1.1-1	b L	Stalked; bid; drew off
10/13	PRX	6f D	OC 10k	3rd/7 -1L	81	6.5-1	b L	Long rail duel; tired
9/18	PRX	6f D	Clm 10k	Won/8 by hd	83	3.8-1	b L	Carried out stretch;up

5Cassation▲R. Silvera · E. PadillaSilvera · PadillaB86 80 81▲+5≡@trip 835-1Fair 7-113%▲ Up +5 · career best86 80 81 ≡@trip 83B▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 81

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 80–86 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 80 81

▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 81

Jockey Ruben Silvera 32% career ★ 15-for-59 on dirt this meet (25%), #2 of 32 · Trainer Esteban Padilla 32% career ★ 6-for-18 on dirt this meet (33%), #1 of 48

Also today · Jockey R1: So Noble 8-1, R8: Miss Ma'am 6-1, R9: Endless Glow 9-2 · Trainer this race: Hey Buddy 5-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Figure of 86 on the record sits above the 81 par. Winner of an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at PRX last time.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Ruben Silvera from post 5 here: 25 wins, 64 top-3 in 144 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k n4lc	Won/8	86	5.0-1	b L	Vied inside; edged off
9/18	PRX	7f D	Clm 10k n4l	5th/14 -4½L	80	4.5-1	b L	Poor start; used up
9/5	MTH	6f D	Clm 5k bc	Won/6	81	0.9-1	b L	Bid btwn; edged away

6CarnabyS. Orellana · E. TzortzakisOrellana · TzortzakisA73 81 88▼-6@trip 843-1Fair 6-115%▼ Down -673 81 88@trip 84A3

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 81 88

Jockey Sebastian Orellana 3-for-36 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer E Tzortzakis 14% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK7/8 board here

Changes barns, from Michael V Pino to E Tzortzakis. Figures have slipped: 88, 81, 73 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.00 on Oct 6 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k c	3rd/7	73	0.8-1	b L	Repelled foe; weakened
9/18	PRX	6f D	Clm 10k c	2nd/8	81	2.4-1	b L	Led; drifted out badly
8/18	PRX	6½f D	OC 16k n1x	Won/9	88	5.3-1	b L	Drifted out st; lasted

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $7,500

Field

6 runners

Purse

$24,000

Post

12:32 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#4 · 34%

Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.21

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Cojelo Pa Ti (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 87 · 81 · 83. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 Lex at 4-1. Use #6 Carnaby in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 COJELO PA TI (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 COJELO PA TI — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.9% to their 25.7%).
#6 CARNABY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.3% to their 19.3%).
#1 LEX — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.4% to their 15.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Lex; pressure from #6 Carnaby, #4 Cojelo Pa Ti; the shape helps #2 Hey Buddy, #3 Float On, #4 Cojelo Pa Ti; and works against #1 Lex, #6 Carnaby.

Lead

1Lex936Carnaby88

Press

4Cojelo Pa Ti913Float On895Cassation892Hey Buddy83

Stalk

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Lex

Cojelo Pa Ti

Float On

Cassation

Carnaby

Hey Buddy

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Hey Buddy

Carnaby

Cojelo Pa Ti

Cassation

Lex

Float On

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