| Work | Trk | Dist | Time | How | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/27 | PRX | 4f | :48.40 | breezing | 3/9 | |
| 10/10 | PRX | 4f | :47.80 | breezing | 6/85 | |
| 9/26 | PRX | 4f | :48.00 | breezing | 1/11 | ● bullet |
| 9/11 | PRX | 4f | :48.00 | breezing | 1/26 | ● bullet |
| 9/2 | PRX | 5f | 1:00.80 | breezing | 6/15 | from gate |
| Work | Trk | Dist | Time | How | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/17 | PRX | 4f | :48.40 | breezing | 3/22 | from gate |
| 10/2 | PRX | 5f | 1:01.80 | breezing | 2/2 | from gate |
| 9/12 | PRX | 4f | :47.60 | breezing | 6/90 | from gate |
| 9/5 | PRX | 4f | :49.40 | breezing | 46/74 | |
| 8/29 | PRX | 4f | :47.00 | breezing | 1/44 | ● bullet from gate |
| Work | Trk | Dist | Time | How | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/21 | PRX | 4f | :49.00 | breezing | 13/31 | |
| 10/10 | PRX | 4f | :49.00 | breezing | 32/85 | |
| 9/30 | PRX | 5f | 1:02.00 | breezing | 22/29 | from gate |
| 9/16 | PRX | 4f | :49.00 | breezing | 14/28 | |
| 7/25 | PRX | 5f | 1:03.80 | breezing | 28/29 |
1Schubert Sonata▼E. Ruiz · H. PadillaRuiz · PadillaA34 59 39▼▼-21↕6-1Fair 7-112%
▼▼ Big drop -2134 59 39 ↕A▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 34–68 · Last 3 figs 34 59 39
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77Jockey Eliseo Ruiz 31% career 8-for-68 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Hugo O Padilla 32% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%)Also today · Jockey R1: Brandenburg Gate 8-1, R5: Peaches N Dreams 5-1, R6: Noble Annie 2-1, R7: Penniless Pauly 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Brandenburg Gate 8-1, this race: My Pretty Boy 4-1, R7: Snipe Hunt 4-1A big drop, maiden special weight to maiden claiming $40,000, and worth asking why. Tops the field on speed figures, a 68 against 54 for the next best.
PACE HELPS Short on early speed in here, which favors whoever goes forward.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 33d agoRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts hereRECORD Eliseo Ruiz from post 1 here: 43 wins, 118 top-3 in 225 rides · 15% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/13 PRX 5½f D sMdSpWt 10th/10 -16L 34 31-1 b Brief speed; stopped 8/25 PRX 5½f D MSW 5th/7 -8½L 59 13-1 Std early; faded rail 8/6 PEN 5f D MSW 4th/4 -7L 39 0.5-1 Stmbl;ins mv;angl 5wd 2Third Bite▼▼P. Lopez · R. Reid Jr.Lopez · Reid Jr.A48 546-1Fair 7-113%
—48 54A▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 77▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (48 vs 54)Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 48 54
▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 77▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (48 vs 54)Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 11-for-63 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Robert E Jr Reid 28% career ★ 6-for-28 on dirt this meet (21%)Also today · Jockey R1: Vandalism 7-2, R3: Riley's Rockstar 9-2, R7: Chef Sparrow 9-5, R8: Welovemollynteddy 2-1 · Trainer R7: Chef Sparrow 9-5, R8: Ginster 12-1★ FASTEST WORKBeaten 16 lengths for 6th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at PRX. Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $40,000.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 34 days agoRECORD Pascacio Lopez from post 2 here: 37 wins, 87 top-3 in 153 rides · 22% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/13 PRX 5½f D sMdSpWt 6th/10 -16L 48 34-1 Very wide; mild bid 7/20 PRX 5f D MSW 7th/8 -8L 54 5.4-1 Pursued winner; empty 3VitalA. Adorno · J. ServisAdorno · Servis?3-1Fair 4-121%
—Debut?2Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey Abner Adorno 32% career 5-for-60 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer John C Servis 35% career 3-for-28 on dirt this meet (11%)Also today · Jockey R3: Admiral's Wave 7-2, R8: Ginster 12-1, R9: Miss Anna Bella 7-2 · Trainer R5: Mommy Makeover 4-1, R9: Miss Anna Bella 7-2Debut for a Volatile youngster; the sire's listed stud fee is $35,000. This barn has 104 first-time starters on record and wins 12% of them.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Aug 29 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dRECORD Abner Adorno from post 3 here: 38 wins, 91 top-3 in 194 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
First start. By Volatile out of Be Nimble (The Factor)Trainer J. Servis: 1st-time starters: 12% wins, 35% in the money (104 starts) · 2-year-olds: 13% wins, 41% in the money (212 starts)Jockey A. Adorno in sprints: 38 wins from 294 (13%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/17 PRX 4f :48.40 breezing 3/22 from gate 10/2 PRX 5f 1:01.80 breezing 2/2 from gate 9/12 PRX 4f :47.60 breezing 6/90 from gate 9/5 PRX 4f :49.40 breezing 46/74 8/29 PRX 4f :47.00 breezing 1/44 ● bullet from gate 4My Pretty BoyA. Hernandez · H. PadillaHernandez · Padilla?4-1Fair 5-116%
—Debut?3Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Andy Hernandez 38% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Hugo O Padilla 32% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Honeysmakemoney 4-1 · Trainer R1: Brandenburg Gate 8-1, this race: Schubert Sonata 6-1, R7: Snipe Hunt 4-1First-time starter from a barn that wins 5% of the time with them (39 tried). It has been schooling from the gate (latest Sep 30).
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 12d ago)RECORD Andy Hernandez from post 4 here: 22 wins, 51 top-3 in 118 rides · 17% wins from all posts hereLast three races
First start. By Volatile out of True Yankee (Munnings)Trainer H. Padilla: 1st-time starters: 5% wins, 36% in the money (39 starts) · 2-year-olds: 6% wins, 35% in the money (104 starts)Jockey A. Hernandez in sprints: 31 wins from 196 (16%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/21 PRX 4f :49.00 breezing 13/31 10/10 PRX 4f :49.00 breezing 32/85 9/30 PRX 5f 1:02.00 breezing 22/29 from gate 9/16 PRX 4f :49.00 breezing 14/28 7/25 PRX 5f 1:03.80 breezing 28/29 5Prayed Up▼A. Rodriguez · B. KulpRodriguez · KulpA395-1Fair 5-116%
—39A▼ Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 77Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 39
▼ Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 77Jockey Angel R Rodriguez 34% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Brandon L Kulp 42% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Warrior's Finale 5-2, R5: Holy Ground 5-1, R7: Sixty Six Books 5-1 · Trainer R1: Warrior's Finale 5-2, R1: Vandalism 7-2, R5: Holy Ground 5-1, R5: Peaches N Dreams 5-1 +1 moreA 39 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $40,000 today.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 26 days agoRECORD Angel R Rodriguez from post 5 here: 2 wins, 11 top-3 in 31 rides · 15% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/13 PRX 5½f D sMdSpWt 8th/10 -18L 39 16-1 Inside; no response 6ItsagrandplacetobeL. Ocasio · L. Linder Jr.Ocasio · Linder Jr.?5-2Fair 7-222%
—Debut?1Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier ?
Jockey Luis M Ocasio 26% career 6-for-64 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Louis Jr Linder 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%)Also today · Jockey R3: Union Purrfection 15-1, R6: Ranting And Raving 5-1 · Trainer R8: Welovemollynteddy 2-1Before this first start, it was the fastest 4F work of its morning on Sep 26 (:48.00). Worked 4F in :48.40 on Oct 27, 3rd fastest of 9 that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 26 (4F in :48.00), 2 works in 30dRECORD Luis M Ocasio from post 6 here: 13 wins, 54 top-3 in 144 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
First start. By Instagrand out of Haka's Sister (Declaration of War)Trainer L. Linder Jr.: 1st-time starters: 18% wins, 53% in the money (34 starts) · 2-year-olds: 12% wins, 45% in the money (66 starts)Jockey L. Ocasio in sprints: 19 wins from 252 (8%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/27 PRX 4f :48.40 breezing 3/9 10/10 PRX 4f :47.80 breezing 6/85 9/26 PRX 4f :48.00 breezing 1/11 ● bullet 9/11 PRX 4f :48.00 breezing 1/26 ● bullet 9/2 PRX 5f 1:00.80 breezing 6/15 from gate
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
PARX RACING · RACE 4
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $40,000
Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.21
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #6 Itsagrandplacetobe (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Backup is #3 Vital at 3-1. Use #4 My Pretty Boy in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 ITSAGRANDPLACETOBE (5-2) — our number agrees.
- #6 ITSAGRANDPLACETOBE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.9% to their 24.0%).
- #3 VITAL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.0% to their 21.0%).
- #4 MY PRETTY BOY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.6% to their 16.8%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
the shape helps #1 Schubert Sonata; and works against #2 Third Bite, #3 Vital, #4 My Pretty Boy.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 4 -7) / EXACTA
50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA
BET OPTIONS
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