Pick sheet

Race 72:47 PM Md Sp Wt

6F · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Chef Sparrow, is 38% to win (morning line implies 30%). Pace: little early speed. Favors horses who can be close.

Top pick #3 Chef Sparrow ML 9-5 Fair 8-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey P. Lopez · Trainer R. Reid Jr. · KEE 2: 0-1-0 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	PRX	5½f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/10 -6L	71	3.7-1		Pursued winner;2d best
9/19	PRX	6½f D	MSW	9th/13 -17L	52	13-1		Step slow; rushed up

Case: Last out 2nd in the sMdSpWt at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 71-52. 0-for-2 at Parx Racing. R. Reid Jr. / P. Lopez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Cannonbury ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey S. Gonzalez · Trainer K. Crook-Demasi · KEE 2: 0-1-0 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	PRX	5½f D	sMdSpWt	7th/10 -15L	40	5.1-1		Brief speed; faded
8/25	PRX	5½f D	MSW	2nd/7 -4½L	68	7.1-1		Pursued; closed well

Case: Last out 7th/10 -15L in the sMdSpWt at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 40-68. 0-for-2 at Parx Racing. K. Crook-Demasi / S. Gonzalez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5½f). Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #2 Sixty Six Books ML 5-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 First career start. B. Kulp / A. Rodriguez. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey A. Rodriguez · Trainer B. Kulp · Debut

First start. By Maximus Mischief out of Tap the Magic (Tapit)

Trainer B. Kulp: 1st-time starters: 17% wins, 44% in the money (54 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 20% wins, 55% in the money (20 starts) · Maiden special weights: 26% wins, 56% in the money (61 starts)

Jockey A. Rodriguez in sprints: 62 wins from 221 (28%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/28	PEN	3f	:39.80	breezing	1/2	● bullet from gate
10/24	PEN	5f	1:01.40	breezing	4/11	from gate
10/16	PEN	5f	1:03.20	breezing	4/7	from gate
10/7	PEN	4f	:47.80	breezing	3/18
9/26	PEN	4f	:48.20	breezing	6/34

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #5 · B #6 · ? #2, #4 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #3 Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #3 Lone speed on early pace · #5 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #6 Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 79

R7 Parx Racing · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

2:47 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $60,000 · 6 runners2:47 PM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $60K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Kpnupwiththejones▼J. Rangel · D. DotoloRangel · DotoloA62 5612-1Fair 30-14%—62 56A▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 62 56
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Joezer Rangel 25% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer David Dotolo 15% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R5: Arrestingly 12-1 · Trainer R5: Arrestingly 12-1
Beaten 12 lengths for 3rd in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at PRX. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 62 against a 79 par.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 65d back)
RECORD Joezer Rangel from post 1 here: 6 wins, 25 top-3 in 56 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 PRX 5½f D sMdSpWt 3rd/10 -12L 62 89-1 Wide turn; inside lane
9/19 PRX 6½f D MSW 8th/13 -15L 56 85-1 Never in contention
2Sixty Six BooksA. Rodriguez · B. KulpRodriguez · Kulp?5-1Fair 6-114%—Debut?3
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Angel R Rodriguez 34% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Brandon L Kulp 42% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Warrior's Finale 5-2, R4: Prayed Up 5-1, R5: Holy Ground 5-1 · Trainer R1: Warrior's Finale 5-2, R1: Vandalism 7-2, R4: Prayed Up 5-1, R5: Holy Ground 5-1 +1 more
Jky 13/32 from post 2
First career start, by Maximus Mischief out of Tap The Magic. First-time starter from a barn that wins 17% of the time with them (54 tried).
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 5d back
RECORD Angel R Rodriguez from post 2 here: 13 wins, 20 top-3 in 32 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Maximus Mischief out of Tap the Magic (Tapit)
Trainer B. Kulp: 1st-time starters: 17% wins, 44% in the money (54 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 20% wins, 55% in the money (20 starts) · Maiden special weights: 26% wins, 56% in the money (61 starts)
Jockey A. Rodriguez in sprints: 62 wins from 221 (28%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/28 PEN 3f :39.80 breezing 1/2 ● bullet from gate
10/24 PEN 5f 1:01.40 breezing 4/11 from gate
10/16 PEN 5f 1:03.20 breezing 4/7 from gate
10/7 PEN 4f :47.80 breezing 3/18
9/26 PEN 4f :48.20 breezing 6/34
3Chef Sparrow▼▲P. Lopez · R. Reid Jr.Lopez · Reid Jr.A71 529-5Fair 8-538%—71 52A▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79▲ Lone speed on early pace1
Card model 38% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 71 52
▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 11-for-63 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Robert E Jr Reid 28% career ★ 6-for-28 on dirt this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Vandalism 7-2, R3: Riley's Rockstar 9-2, R4: Third Bite 6-1, R8: Welovemollynteddy 2-1 · Trainer R4: Third Bite 6-1, R8: Ginster 12-1
Owns the highest recent figure here at 71. Finished 2nd in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at PRX, beaten 6 lengths.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 30d back)
RECORD Pascacio Lopez from post 3 here: 31 wins, 88 top-3 in 145 rides · 22% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 PRX 5½f D sMdSpWt 2nd/10 -6L 71 3.7-1 Pursued winner;2d best
9/19 PRX 6½f D MSW 9th/13 -17L 52 13-1 Step slow; rushed up
4Snipe HuntF. Pennington · H. PadillaPennington · Padilla?4-1Fair 6-114%—Debut?
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey F Pennington 34% career 4-for-42 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Hugo O Padilla 32% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R5: Mommy Makeover 4-1 · Trainer R1: Brandenburg Gate 8-1, R4: Schubert Sonata 6-1, R4: My Pretty Boy 4-1
Unraced; this barn has 39 first-time starters on record and wins 5% of them. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Sep 30.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 12d ago
RECORD F Pennington from post 4 here: 19 wins, 69 top-3 in 139 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Practical Joke out of Leaky Cauldron (Petionville)
Trainer H. Padilla: 1st-time starters: 5% wins, 36% in the money (39 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 32% in the money (19 starts) · Maiden special weights: 12% wins, 43% in the money (77 starts)
Jockey F. Pennington in sprints: 30 wins from 174 (17%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/21 PRX 4f :49.00 breezing 13/31
10/10 PRX 5f 1:02.00 breezing 10/22
9/30 PRX 5f 1:01.00 breezing 8/29 from gate
9/16 PRX 4f :48.40 breezing 9/28
9/5 PRX 4f :48.20 breezing 25/74
5Cannonbury▼S. Gonzalez · K. Crook-DemasiGonzalez · Crook-DemasiA40 683-1Fair 4-120%—40 68A▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 792
Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 40 68
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Silvestre Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-50 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Kathlee Crook-Demasi
Also today · Jockey R5: Yourownspecialway 2-1, R6: Catrina Zar 15-1 · Trainer R5: Yourownspecialway 2-1
Jockey switch: Abner Adorno last out, Silvestre Gonzalez today. 7th last time, 15 lengths back, in a field of 10.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 11d ago
RECORD Silvestre Gonzalez from post 5 here: 23 wins, 68 top-3 in 181 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 PRX 5½f D sMdSpWt 7th/10 -15L 40 5.1-1 Brief speed; faded
8/25 PRX 5½f D MSW 2nd/7 -4½L 68 7.1-1 Pursued; closed well
6Penniless Pauly▼E. Ruiz · E. ColettiRuiz · ColettiB596-1Fair 10-110%—59B▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 59
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Eliseo Ruiz 31% career 8-for-68 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Edward J Coletti 3-for-10 on dirt this meet (30%), #3 of 48
Also today · Jockey R1: Brandenburg Gate 8-1, R4: Schubert Sonata 6-1, R5: Peaches N Dreams 5-1, R6: Noble Annie 2-1 +1 more
Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Sep 19, in :36.00. 2nd of 16 at 4F on Oct 6, in :48.00.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Taken up top stretch. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.00 on Sep 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Eliseo Ruiz from post 6 here: 22 wins, 90 top-3 in 197 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 PRX 5½f D sMdSpWt 4th/10 -15L 59 24-1 Taken up top stretch

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	PRX	5½f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/10 -12L	62	89-1		Wide turn; inside lane
9/19	PRX	6½f D	MSW	8th/13 -15L	56	85-1		Never in contention

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/21	PRX	4f	:49.00	breezing	13/31
10/10	PRX	5f	1:02.00	breezing	10/22
9/30	PRX	5f	1:01.00	breezing	8/29	from gate
9/16	PRX	4f	:48.40	breezing	9/28
9/5	PRX	4f	:48.20	breezing	25/74

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	PRX	5½f D	sMdSpWt	4th/10 -15L	59	24-1		Taken up top stretch

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: little early speed. Favors horses who can be close.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 7

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

6 runners

Purse

$60,000

Post

2:47 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#3 · 38%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.21

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Chef Sparrow (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 71 · 52. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Cannonbury at 3-1. Use #2 Sixty Six Books in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 CHEF SPARROW (9-5) — our number agrees.
#3 CHEF SPARROW — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.3% to their 29.9%).
#5 CANNONBURY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 20.9%).
#4 SNIPE HUNT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (16.4% to their 16.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

5Cannonbury963Chef Sparrow951Kpnupwiththejones87

none

No style yet

6Penniless Pauly862Sixty Six Books4Snipe Hunt

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Cannonbury

Chef Sparrow

Kpnupwiththejones

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Kpnupwiththejones

Chef Sparrow

Cannonbury

Penniless Pauly

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Bet types

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