Pick sheet

Race 312:59 PM Clm 5000n1y

1 Mi · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, My Last Mission, is 52% to win (morning line implies 39%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 My Last Mission ML 6-5 Fair 1-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +16 ★ Best at 1m dirt: 93 ↕ Up and down 51–80 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey M. Chuan · Trainer J. Ness · KEE 11: 2-1-3 · Dist 8: 3-2-1 · best fig at 1m dirt 93 · 10 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/23	PEN	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k n1y	Won/6	80	0.6-1	b L	Ceded;stalked;romped
10/2	DEL	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k b	5th/9 -2¼L	72	2.9-1	b L	Set pace; weakened;
9/2	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n1y	4th/6 -11L	69	2.1-1	b L	Brief speed; faded

Case: Last out won in the Clm4000n1y at PEN. Last Brisnet figures 80-72-69. Best at today's distance 93. 3-for-8 at the distance. 2-for-11 at Parx Racing. J. Ness / M. Chuan.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Riley's Rockstar ML 9-2 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -4 ≡ Steady 71–79

Jockey P. Lopez · Trainer S. Lake · KEE 25: 3-6-4 · Dist 9: 0-3-1 · best fig at 1m dirt 79 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n4l	4th/9 -8½L	71	4.6-1	b L	Rail to lane;flattened
9/28	PRX	1⅛m D	Clm 7k n4l	5th/7 -8½L	73	5.5-1	b L	Rated wide; gave way
9/18	PRX	7f D	Clm 10k n4l	6th/14 -8½L	79	18-1	b L	Slow start; mild rally

Case: Last out 4th/9 -8½L in the Clm7500n4l at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 71-73-79. Best at today's distance 79. 0-for-9 at the distance. 3-for-25 at Parx Racing. S. Lake / P. Lopez.

Knock: 0-for-9 at the distance.

Use #2 Admiral's Wave ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +11 Last out 3rd in the Clm5000n1y at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 75-66-67. Best at today's distance 66. 3-for-10 at the distance. 0-for-9 at Parx Racing. S. Lake / A. Adorno. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey A. Adorno · Trainer S. Lake · KEE 9: 0-0-2 · Dist 10: 3-1-2 · best fig at 1m dirt 66 · 34 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k n1y	3rd/7 -5L	75	12-1	b L	Rated rail; flattened
9/18	DEL	1m D	Clm 5k b	8th/10 -7L	66	9.0-1	b L	4-w 2nd; empty
8/7	MTH	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k b	3rd/6 -3L	67	5.7-1	b L	Mild rally inside

Narrowing the field: A #2, #5, #6 · B #1, #3, #4

Angles: #3 Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #6 Lone speed on early pace

R3 Parx Racing · Claiming $5,000

12:59 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $18,000 · 6 runners12:59 PM · 1m Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $18K · Claiming $5,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Lunar RocketA. Bowman · S. HamiltonBowman · HamiltonB77 59 52▲▲+20↕10-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best77 59 52 ↕B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–77 · Last 3 figs 77 59 52

Jockey Adam Bowman 28% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Stephen Hamilton 16% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Emily Sloan 15-1, R6: Keystormrising 20-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

2nd last time, ½ length back, in a field of 7. Figures are climbing: 52, 59, 77 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 5d back

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Adam Bowman from post 1 here: 7 wins, 32 top-3 in 114 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	PRX	7f D	Clm 5k n1y	2nd/7 -½L	77	57-1	b L	Forced pace; willingly
9/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n1y	7th/8 -13L	59	72-1	b L	Always outrun
8/31	PRX	5½f D	Clm 5k n1y	7th/7 -6¾L	52	25-1	b L	Vied wide; stopped

2Admiral's WaveA. Adorno · S. LakeAdorno · LakeA75 66 67▲▲+11@trip 667-2Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +1175 66 67@trip 66A3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 66 67

Jockey Abner Adorno 32% career 5-for-60 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Scott A Lake 28% career 3-for-42 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Vital 3-1, R8: Ginster 12-1, R9: Miss Anna Bella 7-2 · Trainer R2: Float On 9-2, this race: Riley's Rockstar 9-2

Best recent figure of 75 sits right around the 81 par. Worked 5F in 1:03.80 on Dec 24, 3rd of 6 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 6d back

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Abner Adorno from post 2 here: 33 wins, 95 top-3 in 181 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k n1y	3rd/7 -5L	75	12-1	b L	Rated rail; flattened
9/18	DEL	1m D	Clm 5k b	8th/10 -7L	66	9.0-1	b L	4-w 2nd; empty
8/7	MTH	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k b	3rd/6 -3L	67	5.7-1	b L	Mild rally inside

3Union Purrfection▼L. Ocasio · J. Santaella-CalderonOcasio · Santaella-CalderonB57 50 68▼-5@trip 7415-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -557 50 68@trip 74B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 50 68

▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey Luis M Ocasio 26% career 6-for-64 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Jose M Santaella-Calderon 22% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Itsagrandplacetobe 5-2, R6: Ranting And Raving 5-1 · Trainer R6: Noble Annie 2-1

60D LAYOFF

Drops from $7,500 claiming to $5,000 claiming. Jockey switch: Kendry Rivera last out, Luis M Ocasio today.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 13d back)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD Luis M Ocasio from post 3 here: 15 wins, 52 top-3 in 150 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/2	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n4l	6th/6 -12L	57	7.8-1	b L	Rushed wide; stopped
8/13	PEN	1½m T	Clm 10k	8th/8 -22L	50	52-1	b L	Off pace;ins 1/4;weakn
7/16	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n4l	6th/9 -9L	68	5.5-1	b L	Close outside; empty

4He's Got SwaggerF. Martinez · M. AroMartinez · AroB67 67 50▲+4↕@trip 805-1Fair 12-17%▲ Up +467 67 50 ↕@trip 80B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–73 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 67 50

Jockey Francisco Martinez 33% career 9-for-96 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Michael C Aro 19% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R9: Noulikeabook 6-1

60D LAYOFF

Freshened 138 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Switches from turf to dirt.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Btwn1/2; ins1/4; traffic. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 9d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Francisco Martinez from post 4 here: 22 wins, 87 top-3 in 188 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/17	PEN	1m T	Clm 8k	4th/8 -4L	67	7.6-1	b L	Btwn1/2;ins1/4;traffic
5/20	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k	3rd/4 -18L	67	16-1	b L	Far back; caught fader
3/9	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 16k	7th/7 -19L	50	34-1	b L	Trailed throughout

5Riley's RockstarP. Lopez · S. LakeLopez · LakeA71 73 79▼-4≡@trip 799-2Fair 5-117%▼ Down -471 73 79 ≡@trip 79A2

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 71–79 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 73 79

Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 11-for-63 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Scott A Lake 28% career 3-for-42 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Vandalism 7-2, R4: Third Bite 6-1, R7: Chef Sparrow 9-5, R8: Welovemollynteddy 2-1 · Trainer R2: Float On 9-2, this race: Admiral's Wave 7-2

Trending the wrong way on speed, 79 to 73 to 71. Winless in 9 starts at this distance.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 160d ago

RECORD 1 win, 8 on the board from 17 starts here

RECORD Pascacio Lopez from post 5 here: 22 wins, 71 top-3 in 123 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n4l	4th/9 -8½L	71	4.6-1	b L	Rail to lane;flattened
9/28	PRX	1⅛m D	Clm 7k n4l	5th/7 -8½L	73	5.5-1	b L	Rated wide; gave way
9/18	PRX	7f D	Clm 10k n4l	6th/14 -8½L	79	18-1	b L	Slow start; mild rally

6My Last Mission▲★M. Chuan · J. NessChuan · NessA80 72 69▲▲+16↕@trip 936-5Fair 1-152%▲▲ Big jump +1680 72 69 ↕@trip 93A▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 931

Card model 52% · Fair odds 1-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–80 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 72 69

▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 93

Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career ★ 5-for-24 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career ★ 12-for-54 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R8: Miss Ma'am 6-1

WON LAST

Won last out in a 6-horse $4,000 claiming race at PEN. Tops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 79 for the next best.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 68 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Martin Chuan from post 6 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 16 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/23	PEN	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k n1y	Won/6	80	0.6-1	b L	Ceded;stalked;romped
10/2	DEL	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k b	5th/9 -2¼L	72	2.9-1	b L	Set pace; weakened;
9/2	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n1y	4th/6 -11L	69	2.1-1	b L	Brief speed; faded

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$18,000

Post

12:59 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#6 · 52%

Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race recently.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.51

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #6 My Last Mission (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 80 · 72 · 69. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Riley's Rockstar at 9-2. Use #2 Admiral's Wave in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 MY LAST MISSION (6-5) — our number agrees.
#6 MY LAST MISSION — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (40.9% to their 38.6%).
#2 ADMIRAL'S WAVE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 18.9%).
#5 RILEY'S ROCKSTAR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 15.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Lunar Rocket; pressure from #2 Admiral's Wave, #3 Union Purrfection; the shape helps #4 He's Got Swagger, #5 Riley's Rockstar; and works against #1 Lunar Rocket, #2 Admiral's Wave, #3 Union Purrfection.

Lead

1Lunar Rocket822Admiral's Wave783Union Purrfection78

Press

6My Last Mission87

Stalk

none

5Riley's Rockstar754He's Got Swagger62

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

My Last Mission

Lunar Rocket

Admiral's Wave

Union Purrfection

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Riley's Rockstar

He's Got Swagger

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