Pick sheet

Race 83:14 PM OClm 75000n1x

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Welovemollynteddy, is 35% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #4 Welovemollynteddy ML 2-1 Fair 9-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 82

Jockey P. Lopez · Trainer L. Linder Jr. · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 84 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LRL	6f D	SmartHaloB100k	2nd/4 -3L	84	1.2-1		Carried in st;late bid
8/25	PRX	5½f D	MSW	Won/7	87	2.0-1		Pulled away driving

Case: Last out 2nd in the fSmartHaloB100k at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 84-87. Best at today's distance 84. 0-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Parx Racing. L. Linder Jr. / P. Lopez.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #3 Flying Free ML 4-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 82

Jockey M. Sanchez · Trainer M. Montoya · KEE 2: 1-0-1 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	PRX	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/9	83	2.1-1		In tight; angled out
9/19	PRX	6½f D	MSW	3rd/7 -1½L	65	54-1		Dueled inside; faded

Case: Last out won in the fsMdSpWt at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 83-65. 1-for-2 at Parx Racing. M. Montoya / M. Sanchez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #8 Hay Hay Renee ML 5-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ► Steady ▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 82 Last out 4th/6 -3½L in the fOC100000n2l at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 69-75-67. Best at today's distance 69. 0-for-2 at the distance. D. Velazquez / E. Ruiz. Knock: Never raced at Parx Racing. 0-for-2 at the distance.

Jockey E. Ruiz · Trainer D. Velazquez · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 69 · 38 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/25	DEL	6f D	OC 100k n2l	4th/6 -3½L	69	14-1	Stumble brk;4p;outkick
8/22	DEL	5f D	MSW	Won/7	75	2.3-1	Off rail; driving
8/13	DEL	6f D	MSW	4th/8 by hd	67	13-1	Bump start;rail;weaknd

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #8 · B #2, #5, #6 · C #1, #7

Angles: #1 Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 82 · #2 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 82 · #3 Last fig 83 at/above par 82 · #4 Last fig 84 at/above par 82 · #5 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 82 · #5 Rider upgrade (26% vs 15%) cutting back to a sprint · #7 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 82 · #8 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 82

R8 Parx Racing · Optional Claiming $75,000

3:14 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $50,000 · 8 runners3:14 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $50K · Optional Claiming $75,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Ginster▼A. Adorno · R. Reid Jr.Adorno · Reid Jr.C58 54 56▲+312-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +3 · career best58 54 56C▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · Last 3 figs 58 54 56
▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Abner Adorno 32% career 5-for-60 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Robert E Jr Reid 28% career ★ 6-for-28 on dirt this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Admiral's Wave 7-2, R4: Vital 3-1, R9: Miss Anna Bella 7-2 · Trainer R4: Third Bite 6-1, R7: Chef Sparrow 9-5
WON LAST
Winner of a 5-horse maiden claiming $25,000 race at PRX last time. A step up in company: maiden claiming $25,000 before, allowance optional claiming today.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Wide bid; drew away.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 13d ago)
RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Abner Adorno from post 1 here: 34 wins, 111 top-3 in 197 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/15 PRX 5½f D MCL 25k Won/5 58 1.8-1 Wide bid; drew away
8/25 PRX 5½f D MSW 4th/6 -12L 54 6.2-1 Rail early; no factor
7/18 PRX 4½f D fsMdSpWt 4th/6 -6L 56 1.4-1 Chased; flattened out
2Miss Ma'am▼R. Silvera · J. NessSilvera · NessB71 68 74►≡6-1Fair 10-110%► Steady71 68 74 ≡B▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–74 · Last 3 figs 71 68 74
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Ruben Silvera 32% career ★ 15-for-59 on dirt this meet (25%), #2 of 32 · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career ★ 12-for-54 on dirt this meet (22%)
Also today · Jockey R1: So Noble 8-1, R2: Cassation 5-1, R9: Endless Glow 9-2 · Trainer R3: My Last Mission 6-5
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
New trainer: Amelia J Green had it last time, Jamie Ness now. Raises its level, maiden claiming $40,000 last time and allowance optional claiming now.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 30d back)
RECORD Ruben Silvera from post 2 here: 18 wins, 63 top-3 in 134 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 PRX 5½f D MCL 40kc Won/8 71 1.6-1 Pursued; bid; clear
8/14 SAR 5½f T MSW 7th/7 -9½L 68 7.5-1 Coaxed 2p; weakened
7/24 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 7th/8 -¾L 74 16-1 Inside turns;gave way
3Flying Free▲M. Sanchez · M. MontoyaSanchez · MontoyaA83 654-1Fair 4-120%—83 65A▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 822
Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 83 65
▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 82
Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career 26-for-131 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Marya Montoya 31% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Tengo Esperanza 5-1, R2: Cojelo Pa Ti 2-1
WON LAST
Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at PRX. An 83 top number against a 82 par, so it fits the level.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 28 days ago
RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 3 here: 73 wins, 159 top-3 in 278 rides · 26% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 PRX 5½f D fsMdSpWt Won/9 83 2.1-1 In tight; angled out
9/19 PRX 6½f D MSW 3rd/7 -1½L 65 54-1 Dueled inside; faded
4Welovemollynteddy▲P. Lopez · L. Linder Jr.Lopez · Linder Jr.A84 87@trip 842-1Fair 9-535%—84 87@trip 84A▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 821
Card model 35% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 87
▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 82
Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 11-for-63 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Louis Jr Linder 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Vandalism 7-2, R3: Riley's Rockstar 9-2, R4: Third Bite 6-1, R7: Chef Sparrow 9-5 · Trainer R4: Itsagrandplacetobe 5-2
★ FASTEST WORK
Owns the highest recent figure here at 87. Purse drops from $100,000 to $50,000 against its last start.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 20; 1 work in 30d
RECORD Pascacio Lopez from post 4 here: 32 wins, 92 top-3 in 147 rides · 22% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 LRL 6f D SmartHaloB100k 2nd/4 -3L 84 1.2-1 Carried in st;late bid
8/25 PRX 5½f D MSW Won/7 87 2.0-1 Pulled away driving
5No One Else's▼▲J. Ruiz · J. Duarte Jr.Ruiz · Duarte Jr.B50 70 63▼▼-166-1Fair 10-110%▼▼ Big drop -1650 70 63B▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 82▲ Rider upgrade (26% vs 15%) cutting back to a sprint
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Last 3 figs 50 70 63
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 82▲ Rider upgrade (26% vs 15%) cutting back to a sprint
Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career · Trainer Jorge Jr Duarte 25% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile. Purse drops from $106,000 to $50,000 against its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 2)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 9; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/29 MTH 1m D SororityB106k 8th/9 -17L 50 40-1 Tracked ins; gave way
8/8 CNL 7f D MSW Won/8 70 9.1-1 Prssd 2w;drw off;held
7/22 CNL 5f D MSW 3rd/8 -5½L 63 8.9-1 2p turn; up for show
6Olympic DreamerJ. Rodriguez · G. PreciadoRodriguez · PreciadoB78 61 62▲▲+168-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best78 61 62B
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Last 3 figs 78 61 62
Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Guadalupe Preciado 32% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R5: First Blush 6-1, R9: Tap And A Hug 6-1 · Trainer R1: Tengo Esperanza 5-1
WON LAST3/4 board here
Last start was a win, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $25,000 race at PRX at 0.6-1. Raises its level, maiden claiming $25,000 last time and allowance optional claiming now.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Drew away; ridden out.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 5d ago
RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Jamie Rodriguez from post 6 here: 2 wins, 4 top-3 in 23 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 PRX 5½f D MCL 25k Won/9 78 0.6-1 b Drew away; ridden out
9/19 PRX 6½f D MSW 5th/7 -5L 61 24-1 b Stalked wide; faltered
8/25 PRX 5½f D MSW 3rd/6 -6L 62 5.7-1 b Clear pace; weakened
7Funny Music▼C. Maragh · S. RamirezMaragh · RamirezC55 69@trip 558-1Fair 20-15%—55 69@trip 55C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 55 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 69
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Christian Maragh 27% career · Trainer Silvino Ramirez 32% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet
Was 5th of 6 at the first call last time. Sheds 7 pounds from its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 15d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 DEL 6f D OC 100k n2l 5th/6 -8½L 55 15-1 Outside;2p;no bid
9/6 MTH 5f D MSW Won/6 69 11-1 Set pace; drew clear
8Hay Hay Renee▼E. Ruiz · D. VelazquezRuiz · VelazquezA69 75 67►@trip 695-1Fair 8-110%► Steady69 75 67@trip 69A▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 823
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 69 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 75 67
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Eliseo Ruiz 31% career 8-for-68 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Daniel Velazquez 29% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Brandenburg Gate 8-1, R4: Schubert Sonata 6-1, R5: Peaches N Dreams 5-1, R6: Noble Annie 2-1 +1 more
Gets a new rider, Eliseo Ruiz replacing Teshawn Hazelwood. Best recent figure of 75 sits right around the 82 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
TROUBLED TRIP Stumble brk; 4p; outkick last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 11d back
RECORD Eliseo Ruiz from post 8 here: 17 wins, 42 top-3 in 102 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 DEL 6f D OC 100k n2l 4th/6 -3½L 69 14-1 Stumble brk;4p;outkick
8/22 DEL 5f D MSW Won/7 75 2.3-1 Off rail; driving
8/13 DEL 6f D MSW 4th/8 by hd 67 13-1 Bump start;rail;weaknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/15	PRX	5½f D	MCL 25k	Won/5	58	1.8-1	Wide bid; drew away
8/25	PRX	5½f D	MSW	4th/6 -12L	54	6.2-1	Rail early; no factor
7/18	PRX	4½f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/6 -6L	56	1.4-1	Chased; flattened out

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/12	PRX	5½f D	MCL 40kc	Won/8	71	1.6-1	Pursued; bid; clear
8/14	SAR	5½f T	MSW	7th/7 -9½L	68	7.5-1	Coaxed 2p; weakened
7/24	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	7th/8 -¾L	74	16-1	Inside turns;gave way

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
8/29	MTH	1m D	SororityB106k	8th/9 -17L	50	40-1	Tracked ins; gave way
8/8	CNL	7f D	MSW	Won/8	70	9.1-1	Prssd 2w;drw off;held
7/22	CNL	5f D	MSW	3rd/8 -5½L	63	8.9-1	2p turn; up for show

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	PRX	5½f D	MCL 25k	Won/9	78	0.6-1	b	Drew away; ridden out
9/19	PRX	6½f D	MSW	5th/7 -5L	61	24-1	b	Stalked wide; faltered
8/25	PRX	5½f D	MSW	3rd/6 -6L	62	5.7-1	b	Clear pace; weakened

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	DEL	6f D	OC 100k n2l	5th/6 -8½L	55	15-1		Outside;2p;no bid
9/6	MTH	5f D	MSW	Won/6	69	11-1		Set pace; drew clear

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $75,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$50,000

Post

3:14 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#4 · 35%

Claiming $75,000, for fillies, 2-year-olds, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.21

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Welovemollynteddy (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 84 · 87. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Flying Free at 4-1. Use #8 Hay Hay Renee in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 WELOVEMOLLYNTEDDY (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 WELOVEMOLLYNTEDDY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.5% to their 25.9%).
#3 FLYING FREE — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 18.1%, they've got 15.6%.
#8 HAY HAY RENEE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.1% to their 13.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 FLYING FREE — we make it 18.1%, the morning line works out to 15.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Olympic Dreamer; pressure from #8 Hay Hay Renee, #7 Funny Music; and works against #5 No One Else's, #6 Olympic Dreamer, #7 Funny Music.

Lead

6Olympic Dreamer978Hay Hay Renee877Funny Music855No One Else's74

Press

3Flying Free932Miss Ma'am874Welovemollynteddy81

Stalk

1Ginster84

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Olympic Dreamer

Flying Free

Miss Ma'am

Hay Hay Renee

Funny Music

Ginster

Welovemollynteddy

No One Else's

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Funny Music

Hay Hay Renee

Ginster

Welovemollynteddy

Miss Ma'am

Olympic Dreamer

No One Else's

Flying Free

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