Pick sheet

Race 97:03 PM OClm 50000n1x

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Van Gogh Style, is 27% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Van Gogh Style ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best ▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 88 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey T. Baze · Trainer S. McCarthy · KEE 3: 0-1-2 · Dist 2: 1-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 83 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6½f D	sOC50000n1x	3rd/8 -1L	92	9.5-1	L	Bid2w5/16;no final kck
9/4	DMR	6½f D	sOC20000n1x	8th/12 -4¼L	79	40-1	L	Vie3deep;btwn5/16;fold
8/13	DMR	6f D	sMdSpWt	Won/11	83	4.1-1	L	Ins;shook free upper

Case: Last out 3rd in the sOC50000n1x at SA. Last Brisnet figures 92-79-83. Best at today's distance 83. 1-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Santa Anita. S. McCarthy / T. Baze.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #7 King's Ride ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ► Steady ≡ Steady 79–89

Jockey J. Hernandez · Trainer C. Lewis · KEE 3: 1-1-1 · Dist 2: 1-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 85 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	4th/8 -6L	85	4.3-1	b L	Ins-2w;outkickd for3rd
9/5	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	5th/10 -2½L	84	7.2-1	b L	Bpd st;check btwn late
7/31	DMR	7f D	sRealGdDelB150k	9th/11 -8½L	79	8.9-1	b	Ins-2wd; no menace

Case: Last out 4th/8 -6L in the sOC20000n1x at SA. Last Brisnet figures 85-84-79. Best at today's distance 85. 1-for-2 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Santa Anita. C. Lewis / J. Hernandez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #6 Courtside Action ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +11 ↕ Up and down 34–96 Last out 4th/9 in the sOC20000n1x at SA. Last Brisnet figures 82-83-34. Best at today's distance 94. 1-for-1 at the distance. 2-for-2 at Santa Anita. A. Mathis / R. Gonzalez. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey R. Gonzalez · Trainer A. Mathis · KEE 2: 2-0-0 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 94 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	4th/9	82	2.9-1	b L	Bpd3w3/8;bid2w;outkckd
9/5	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	6th/10 -4½L	83	6.9-1	b L	3-2w;angled widest str
7/31	DMR	7f D	sRealGdDelB150k	11th/11 -17L	34	4.4-1	b	Bp early;drop bck;easd

Longshot #5 Blame It on Jack ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #5 ▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 88

Jockey J. Rosario · Trainer P. Miller · KEE 2: 1-0-1 · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 70 · 198 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/17	SA	1m D	sMdSpWt	Won/5	82	0.9-1	b L	Led inside; drew away
4/2	SA	6f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/7 -5L	70	7.7-1	b L	Reluctant;off slow;2wd

Case: Last out won in the sMdSpWt at SA. Last Brisnet figures 82-70. Best at today's distance 70. 0-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Santa Anita. P. Miller / J. Rosario.

Knock: Off 198 days. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #7 · B #1, #6, #8 · C #4, #5

Angles: #1 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (69 vs 92) · #2 Last fig 92 at/above par 88 · #2 Lone speed on early pace · #3 Last fig 92 at/above par 88 · #4 Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 88 · #5 Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 88 · #8 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (72 vs 81)

R9 Santa Anita Park · Optional Claiming $50,000

7:03 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $67,000 · 8 runners7:03 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $67K · Optional Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Marcos Performance▼Ran 3rdD. Van · P. AguirreVan · AguirreB69 92 89▼▼-18↕@trip 9215-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -1869 92 89 ↕@trip 92B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (69 vs 92)

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 69–92 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 92 89

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (69 vs 92)

Jockey Dyke Drayden Van 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Paul Aguirre 22% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R8: The G M 30-1, R10: Dont Short Ur Self 30-1

CLASS UP

Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	SA	1m T	OC 50k	10th/10 -6¼L	69	19-1	b L	Pace inside; gave way
8/7	DMR	6f D	Clm 32k bc	2nd/5 by hd	92	1.1-1	b L	Outsd;flatten;saved2nd
1/9	SA	6f D	OC 50k	Won/5 by hd	89	5.2-1	b L	Bpd st;bid2w;won bob

2Van Gogh Style▲▲Ran 5thT. Baze · S. McCarthyBaze · McCarthyA92 79 83▲▲+11@trip 835-2Fair 3-127%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best92 79 83@trip 83A▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 88▲ Lone speed on early pace1

Card model 27% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 79 83

▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 88▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey T C Baze 27% career ★ 6-for-26 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Sean McCarthy 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Miyako Pauma 30-1, R5: City Exile 15-1, R6: Eltonsingsanother 4-1, R8: Frank Bullitt 3-1

CLASS UP3/4 board here

Beaten 1 length for 3rd in an 8-horse optional claiming race at SA. Best recent figure of 92 sits right around the 88 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 7d ago)

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6½f D	sOC50000n1x	3rd/8 -1L	92	9.5-1	L	Bid2w5/16;no final kck
9/4	DMR	6½f D	sOC20000n1x	8th/12 -4¼L	79	40-1	L	Vie3deep;btwn5/16;fold
8/13	DMR	6f D	sMdSpWt	Won/11	83	4.1-1	L	Ins;shook free upper

3Maker and Sons▲Ran 6thA. Aguilar · P. CapestroAguilar · CapestroA92 74 79▲▲+11@trip 897-2Fair 6-114%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best92 74 79@trip 89A▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 88

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 89 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 74 79

▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 88

Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 4-for-30 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Paula S Capestro 21% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Princess Jet 2-1

CLASS UP2/3 board here

Jockey switch: E Maldonado last out, Armando Aguilar today. Led at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 8d back)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6½f D	sOC50000n1x	2nd/8	92	20-1	b L	Met bid; grudgingly
8/14	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	8th/9 -3L	74	32-1	b L	Duel ins;vied turn;wkn
6/15	SA	-6½f T	sAlw69500n1x	6th/10 -8L	79	33-1	b L	Tracked 2wd; no rally

4Italio▼Ran 8thC. Herrera · V. BrinkerhoffHerrera · BrinkerhoffC80 75 62▲▲+8@trip 7920-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best80 75 62@trip 79C▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 88

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 75 62

▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 88

Jockey Cristobal Herrera 27% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Val Brinkerhoff 22% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Trainer R7: Back Burn 4-1, R8: Got'm Cot'm 5-1

180D+ LAYOFFCLASS UP4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Freshened 330 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. New trainer: Marcia Stortz had it last time, Val Brinkerhoff now.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
12/6	LRC	5½f D	OC 50k	Won/6	80	5.6-1	b	Met bids; held gamely
11/23	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	7th/7 -3¼L	75	39-1	b	Stalked 2-3wd;weakened
10/31	DMR	1m T	TBAftrcAl Stk	8th/8 -11L	62	98-1	b	2wide;3-2wide;empty

5Blame It on Jack▼LSRan 7thJ. Rosario · P. MillerRosario · MillerC82 70@trip 708-1Fair 8-111%—82 70@trip 70C▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 88LS
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 70
▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 88LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Joel Rosario 33% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Peter Miller 30% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Moonlit Sonata 3-2, R4: Unrivaled Time 5-1, R5: Keep Movin' On 12-1, R8: Third Beer 9-2 +1 more · Trainer R3: Princess Jet 2-1, R10: Tiz The Truth 12-1
180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Back after 198 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 0)
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Led inside; drew away.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 7 (5F in :59.00), 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
4/17 SA 1m D sMdSpWt Won/5 82 0.9-1 b L Led inside; drew away
4/2 SA 6f D sMdSpWt 3rd/7 -5L 70 7.7-1 b L Reluctant;off slow;2wd

6Courtside ActionRan 1stR. Gonzalez · A. MathisGonzalez · MathisB82 83 34▲▲+11↕@trip 944-1Fair 6-114%▲▲ Big jump +1182 83 34 ↕@trip 94B3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 34–96 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 83 34

Jockey Ricardo Gonzalez 33% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 24 · Trainer Andy Mathis 38% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Palmer Beach 5-1, R3: Chaseher 2-1, R7: Grammy's Gal 6-1

2/3 board here

Switches from turf to dirt. Tops the field on speed figures, a 96 against 92 for the next best.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	4th/9	82	2.9-1	b L	Bpd3w3/8;bid2w;outkckd
9/5	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	6th/10 -4½L	83	6.9-1	b L	3-2w;angled widest str
7/31	DMR	7f D	sRealGdDelB150k	11th/11 -17L	34	4.4-1	b	Bp early;drop bck;easd

7King's RideRan 4thJ. Hernandez · C. LewisHernandez · LewisA85 84 79►≡@trip 853-1Fair 4-121%► Steady85 84 79 ≡@trip 85A2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 79–89 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 84 79

Jockey Juan J Hernandez 38% career ★ 7-for-35 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Craig A Lewis 26% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Darn Good Dancer 3-2, R4: Path To Power 6-1, R5: Doo Wop Don 5-2, R7: Dragon Reign 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R10: Take Revenge 6-1

3/5 board here

Has moved up each time out, 79 to 84 to 85. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 8d back)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	4th/8 -6L	85	4.3-1	b L	Ins-2w;outkickd for3rd
9/5	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	5th/10 -2½L	84	7.2-1	b L	Bpd st;check btwn late
7/31	DMR	7f D	sRealGdDelB150k	9th/11 -8½L	79	8.9-1	b	Ins-2wd; no menace

8Fionello▼Ran 2ndT. Pereira · S. KnappPereira · KnappB72 81 80▼▼-9@trip 8110-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -972 81 80@trip 81B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (72 vs 81)

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 81 80

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (72 vs 81)

Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career 7-for-36 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Steve Knapp 30% career 2-for-33 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Fire Mountain 8-1, R5: Whiskyginandbrandy 7-2, R7: Back Burn 4-1, R8: Got'm Cot'm 5-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Strike A Match 3-1, R5: City Exile 15-1, R5: Whiskyginandbrandy 7-2, R8: Jimmy Winkfield 4-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 25 (:46.00), a sign it is training forwardly. Worked 5F in :59.80 on Sep 23, 2nd of 12 at the distance.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Checked hard early), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 25; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6½f D	sOC50000n1x	8th/8 -9½L	72	3.7-1	b L	Checked hard early
7/31	DMR	7f D	sRealGdDelB150k	8th/11 -9½L	81	41-1	b	Bpd btw st;5w into str
6/27	LRC	1⅛m D	LosAlDby Stk	3rd/5 -3½L	80	5.1-1	b	Squeezed early;4w;2-5w

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #2 Van Gogh Style, finished 5th.

1st6Courtside ActionWin$5.80Place$4.20Show$4.00Our #3

2nd8FionelloWin—Place$6.20Show$3.80Our #6

3rd1Marcos PerformanceWin—Place—Show$8.00Our #7

4th7King's RideOur #2

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 9

OFFICIAL

Optional Claiming $50,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$67,000

Post

7:03 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#2 · 27%

Claiming $50,000, for 3-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 66.98

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #2 Van Gogh Style (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 92 · 79 · 83. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 King's Ride at 3-1. Use #6 Courtside Action in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON

Courtside Action (our #3) won · top pick Van Gogh Style ran 5th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (5th)
✗ Our top 3 finished 5th, 4th, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#2 VAN GOGH STYLE	5th
#2	#7 KING'S RIDE	4th
#3	#6 COURTSIDE ACTION	1st
#4	#3 MAKER AND SONS	6th
#5	#5 BLAME IT ON JACK	7th

Actual finish

1st	#6 Courtside Action	our #3
2nd	#8 Fionello	our #6
3rd	#1 Marcos Performance	our #7
4th	#7 King's Ride	our #2
5th	#2 Van Gogh Style	our #1

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 VAN GOGH STYLE (5-2) — our number agrees.
#2 VAN GOGH STYLE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.9% to their 22.5%).
#7 KING'S RIDE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.5% to their 19.7%).
#3 MAKER AND SONS — our #4 number, about right at the windows (16.3% to their 17.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Italio; pressure from #3 Maker And Sons, #5 Blame It On Jack; and works against #2 Van Gogh Style, #3 Maker And Sons, #4 Italio.

Lead

4Italio923Maker And Sons895Blame It On Jack892Van Gogh Style86

Press

7King's Ride906Courtside Action891Marcos Performance81

Stalk

8Fionello78

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Italio

King's Ride

Maker And Sons

Blame It On Jack

Courtside Action

Van Gogh Style

Marcos Performance

Fionello

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Blame It On Jack

Marcos Performance

Van Gogh Style

Maker And Sons

Fionello

Italio

Courtside Action

King's Ride

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