R6 Woodbine · Claiming $15,000

4:25 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Turf · $42,100 · 8 runners4:25 PM · 1 1/16m Turf · 8 runners

Upcoming $42K · Claiming $15,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Lasting SilenceJ. Crawford · K. WhiteleyCrawford · WhiteleyA79 61 92►↕@trip 765-2Fair 4-120%► Steady79 61 92 ↕@trip 76A1

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–92 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 61 92

Jockey J Crawford 30% career 2-for-17 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Kevin Whiteley 23% career 1-for-4 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R8: Crucial Taunt 3-1

4/6 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, a 92 against 85 for the next best. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Angled 5w; second best. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD J Crawford from post 1 here: 14 wins, 38 top-3 in 78 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/11	WO	7½f T	Clm 15k	2nd/8 -5½L	79	3.9-1	Angled 5w;second best
9/7	FE	1 1/16 T	PussNBoots32k	10th/10 -7¾L	61	1.6-1	Failed to fire
8/10	FE	1 1/16 D	Alw nc	Won/9	92	1.5-1	Tracked much the best

2AccelerandoP. Moran · W. TharrenosMoran · TharrenosC75 68 74►≡@trip 6810-1Fair 8-111%► Steady75 68 74 ≡@trip 68C2

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–77 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 68 74

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career ★ 15-for-74 on turf this meet (20%) · Trainer William Tharrenos 35% career 3-for-12 on turf this meet (25%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Aussie Hyper 8-1, R3: Elissa's Macho 9-5, R4: Audi's World 9-5, R5: You're So Lucky 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Bank On Big Winner 8-1, R5: You're So Lucky 8-1, R8: Military Force 8-1, R9: Gran Ghost 12-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST6/12 board here

Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse $15,000 claiming race at WO. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 61 days ago

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 2 here: 42 wins, 107 top-3 in 215 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k b	Won/6	75	2.9-1	b L	Clear 3/8;ask 1/4;held
9/13	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k b	7th/7 -4¾L	68	4.6-1	b L	Stalked 2-4w; weakened
8/7	WO	7½f T	Clm 25k b	2nd/8	74	2.6-1	b L	Bump st;need more late

3Quiet IntentE. Wilson · T. AttardWilson · AttardB73 80 83▼-5@trip 838-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -573 80 83@trip 83B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 80 83

Jockey Emma Jayne Wilson 30% career 5-for-47 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Tino Attard 33% career 2-for-9 on turf this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Balboni's Crew 3-1 · Trainer R9: Sanhedrin 6-1, R9: Prime Rate 3-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Figures have slipped: 83, 80, 73 over its last three. Stretches out from 7½ furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 60d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Emma Jayne Wilson from post 3 here: 27 wins, 63 top-3 in 157 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	7½f T	Clm 15k	4th/8 -5½L	73	3.2-1	L	Stalked 2-3w; weakened
9/25	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 15k	2nd/12 -1L	80	7.5-1	L	Bid2P1/8;distant2nd
9/7	FE	1 1/16 T	PussNBoots32k	Won/10 by 1	83	5.3-1	L	3-p str; drew clear

4True Shot▼D. Nelson · R. JonesNelson · JonesC69 70 73▼-3≡@trip 7620-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -369 70 73 ≡@trip 76C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 69–73 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 70 73

▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey Dane Nelson 31% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Ryan A Jones 25% career 2-for-14 on turf this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Lita Marie 5-1, R4: No Cape 5-2, R5: Turbo Charged 15-1, R9: Friendly 8-1

Has won 3 of 8 going today's distance. A 73 is the high figure lately, short of the 81 par.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	7½f T	Clm 15k	7th/8 -9L	69	59-1	b L	Tight brk;2-3w btwn
9/25	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 15k	11th/12 -8½L	70	47-1	b L	9W1/4;empty out1/8
8/28	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 15k b	Won/6 by 2¼	73	3.6-1	b L	Burst thru70yds;got up

5CornwallR. Munger · E. MendozaMunger · MendozaB66 77 84▼▼-15@trip 666-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -1566 77 84@trip 66B

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -15 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 77 84

Jockey Ryan Munger 30% career 5-for-44 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Edgar Mendoza 32% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R9: Lake Nasser 5-2

CLASS UP7/14 board here

Was running in $25,000 claiming; today's $15,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Finished 7th in a 7-horse $25,000 claiming race at WO, beaten 14 lengths.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 13d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 7 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD Ryan Munger from post 5 here: 25 wins, 82 top-3 in 194 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k	7th/7 -14L	66	5.5-1	b L	Ask3/8;no run;empty
8/9	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k c	3rd/8 -3½L	77	3.0-1	b L	Advance 5-4w;evenly
7/4	WO	1⅛m D	Clm 25k	4th/6 -9L	84	8.2-1	b L	One paced;minors

6Chairman BobC. Douglas · M. Wright Jr.Douglas · Wright Jr.A80 77 76▲+3≡@trip 802-1Fair 7-222%▲ Up +380 77 76 ≡@trip 80A3

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 76–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 77 76

Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 6-for-45 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Michael Jr Wright 37% career 3-for-11 on turf this meet (27%), #2 of 25

Also today · Jockey R2: Lady On The Nile 7-2, R3: Really Big Show 10-1, R4: Don't Say A Word 12-1, R5: Tanist 20-1 +3 more

WON LAST5/10 board here

Winner of a 7-horse allowance race at WO last time. Best recent figure of 80 sits right around the 81 par.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 12d back

RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 6 here: 4 wins, 17 top-3 in 54 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	WO	1m T	Alw s	Won/7	80	1.2-1	L	Rail bid 1/8; cleared
8/30	WO	7½f T	Clm 15k	Won/7 by 2	77	3.7-1	L	Bump st;5W1/8;surged
7/11	WO	6½f D	Clm 7k b	Won/6 by hd	76	4.2-1	L	Rail1/8;won going away

7Legal CatchJ. Campos · H. LadauceurCampos · LadauceurA79 77 82►≡@trip 833-1Fair 6-114%► Steady79 77 82 ≡@trip 83A

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 77 82

Jockey Jose Luis Campos 26% career 4-for-33 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Harold Ladauceur

Also today · Jockey R4: Found Money 12-1, R8: Ninja Star 7-2

A big drop, optional claiming to $15,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Shortens up to 1 1/16 miles after going 1 1/4 miles.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 4 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Jose Luis Campos from post 7 here: 11 wins, 43 top-3 in 156 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WO	1¼m T	OC 40k	8th/11 -5L	79	30-1	b L	Chased 3wd turn; tired
9/6	WO	-9f T	OC 40k	8th/9 -4¾L	77	9.3-1	b L	Between early;no rally
7/26	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2x	7th/8 -8¾L	82	24-1	b L	Trail3/8;passed one

8Proud RoninLSC. Douglas · F. HuarteDouglas · HuarteB75 64 80►8-1Fair 8-110%► Steady75 64 80BLS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 75 64 80

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 8%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 6-for-45 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Frank Huarte 18% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Lady On The Nile 7-2, R3: Really Big Show 10-1, R4: Don't Say A Word 12-1, R5: Tanist 20-1 +3 more · Trainer R9: Friendly 8-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS8/16 board here

Switches from dirt to turf. A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 3d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 8 on the board from 16 starts here

RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 8 here: 2 wins, 3 top-3 in 19 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	WO	6½f D	Clm 25k	6th/6 -7½L	75	8.3-1	b L	Trail bkstr;no factor
9/12	WO	1⅛m D	OC 32k n1x	7th/7 -12L	64	13-1	b L	Brk out;chased 3-4w
8/16	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 25k	2nd/6 -2½L	80	18-1	b L	Trail;late run clr2nd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: little early speed. Favors horses who can be close.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Claiming $15,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$42,100

Post

4:25 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#1 · 20%

Claiming $15,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.85

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Lasting Silence (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 79 · 61 · 92. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Accelerando at 10-1. Use #6 Chairman Bob in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 CHAIRMAN BOB (2-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
#6 CHAIRMAN BOB — our #3 number, about right at the windows (23.5% to their 24.3%).
#1 LASTING SILENCE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.3% to their 20.8%).
#7 LEGAL CATCH — our #7 number, about right at the windows (16.8% to their 18.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 ACCELERANDO (10-1) — our fair 7.7% is above the morning line's 6.6%; supported by: lone early speed — controls the pace uncontested

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #2 Accelerando.

Lead

none

Press

2Accelerando72

Stalk

7Legal Catch873Quiet Intent858Proud Ronin821Lasting Silence795Cornwall71

4True Shot796Chairman Bob76

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Legal Catch

Quiet Intent

Proud Ronin

Lasting Silence

Accelerando

Cornwall

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

True Shot

Chairman Bob

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