R4 Woodbine · Maiden Claiming $10,000

3:05 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt · $33,700 · 9 runners3:05 PM · 1 1/16m Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $34K · Maiden Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Audi's WorldP. Moran · K. CallaghanMoran · CallaghanA64 73 72▼-6@trip 739-5Fair 7-221%▼ Down -664 73 72@trip 73A

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 73 72

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 16-for-84 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Kelly L Callaghan 28% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Aussie Hyper 8-1, R3: Elissa's Macho 9-5, R5: You're So Lucky 8-1, R6: Accelerando 10-1 +1 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Tops the field on speed figures, a 73 against 71 for the next best. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Loom5W3/16; forced out. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 50d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 1 here: 46 wins, 111 top-3 in 202 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	1 1/16 D	MCL 10k	4th/7 -1L	64	0.7-1	L	Loom5W3/16;forced out
9/20	WO	1 1/16 D	MCL 10k	2nd/5 -3½L	73	0.7-1	L	5Wstr;charging;almost
8/28	WO	1 1/16 D	MCL 10k	2nd/8 -½L	72	0.8-1	L	Long rally1/2-1/8pole

2Don't Say a Word▼C. Douglas · N. NosowenkoDouglas · NosowenkoB61 52 51▲+7@trip 6112-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +7 · career best61 52 51@trip 61B▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 61 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 52 51

▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 10-for-76 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Nicholas Nosowenko 25% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Lady On The Nile 7-2, R3: Really Big Show 10-1, R5: Tanist 20-1, R6: Chairman Bob 2-1 +3 more · Trainer R3: Really Big Show 10-1

CLASS DROP

Figures are climbing: 51, 52, 61 over its last three. Beaten 5½ lengths for 3rd in a 6-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at WO.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 49d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 2 here: 3 wins, 14 top-3 in 46 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	1 1/16 D	MCL 10k	3rd/6 -5½L	61	15-1	b L	Sandwich st;soild try
9/19	WO	1 1/16 D	Moc25000	7th/7 -13L	52	39-1	b L	Stp slw;check btwn1st
8/27	WO	1 1/16 D	MCL 10k	5th/9 -9L	51	12-1	b L	Poor st;brushed late

3Metro King▼R. Maragh · K. PalmerMaragh · PalmerC62 50 55▲+720-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +7 · career best62 50 55C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 62 50 55

▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Romero Ramsay Maragh 27% career 2-for-34 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Kerron Palmer 23% career 1-for-23 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Bank On Big Winner 8-1, R2: I'm Tenacious 6-1, R3: Pat's Holiday 20-1, R9: A Real War Story 15-1 · Trainer R8: Armino 20-1, R9: Ashuka 10-1

0/6 board here

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Was running in maiden claiming $14,000; today's maiden claiming $10,000 is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 3d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 6 starts here

RECORD Romero Ramsay Maragh from post 3 here: 6 wins, 18 top-3 in 54 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	WO	1m T	MCL 15k	6th/10 -10L	62	57-1	b L	Bmp'd st; lost irons
9/7	WO	6½f D	MCL 10k	7th/9 -7L	50	27-1	b L	Brief run 3W3/8ths
8/21	WO	5½f D	MCL 10k	7th/11 -11L	55	22-1	b L	Sqzd st;passed tired

4Almasty Five▼D. Gaskin · A. PottingerGaskin · PottingerC61 43 57▲▲+920-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +961 43 57C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Last 3 figs 61 43 57

▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin 28% career 0-for-21 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Anthony Pottinger 14% career

CLASS UP0/5 board here

New trainer: Tedston Holder had it last time, Anthony Pottinger now. Purse drops from $53,600 to $33,700 against its last start.

EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here

RECORD Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin from post 4 here: 4 wins, 26 top-3 in 75 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	WO	1m T	Moc25000	8th/10 -7L	61	88-1	b L	Had little impact
9/7	WO	6½f D	MCL 10k	9th/9 -11L	43	16-1	b L	Trailed thru-out
8/28	WO	1 1/16 T	Moc25000	9th/11 -14L	57	59-1	b L	Swerve4W5/16 avoid foe

5Gelato▼★F. Aebly · S. SimonAebly · SimonA62 67 72▼▼-9@trip 744-1Fair 9-218%▼▼ Big drop -962 67 72@trip 74A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 67)★ Best at the trip 741

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 67 72

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 67)★ Best at the trip 74

Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 16-for-90 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Stuart Simon 24% career 3-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Big Lew 5-2, R2: Foxy Diva 8-1, R3: Winning Agenda 2-1, R7: Prime Edge 2-1 +2 more

CLASS DROP

Runs for $33,700 today after a $53,600 race last time. Switches from turf to dirt.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 35d back

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 5 here: 34 wins, 108 top-3 in 223 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	WO	1m T	Moc25000	7th/10 -5L	62	6.6-1	b L	Never in contention
7/5	WO	1m T	Moc40000	4th/9 -4½L	67	8.4-1	b L	Bmpd brk;insd;altr1/16
6/14	WO	1 1/16 D	MSW	6th/7 -7¾L	72	21-1	b L	Never was involved

6Found MoneyJ. Campos · M. MattineCampos · MattineB64 67 52▲+5@trip 6712-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +564 67 52@trip 67B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 67 52

Jockey Jose Luis Campos 26% career 9-for-55 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Michael Mattine 26% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Legal Catch 3-1, R8: Ninja Star 7-2 · Trainer R2: I'm Tenacious 6-1

CLASS DROP0/10 board here

A longer trip: 7 furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today. Maiden through 10 starts.

EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 61d ago

RECORD Never on the board here in 10 starts

RECORD Jose Luis Campos from post 6 here: 17 wins, 70 top-3 in 203 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	WO	7f D	MCL 7k	4th/9 -4L	64	6.8-1	b L	One paced;fringes
9/20	WO	1 1/16 D	MCL 10k	4th/5 -4½L	67	11-1	b L	Brsh st;chased;weaken
9/7	WO	6½f D	MCL 10k	6th/9 -8L	52	7.8-1	L	3Wturn;passed tired

7No CapeD. Nelson · S. ChircopNelson · ChircopB46 67 73▼▼-22↕5-2Fair 4-121%▼▼ Big drop -2246 67 73 ↕B2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–73 · Last 3 figs 46 67 73

Jockey Dane Nelson 31% career 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Steven Chircop 30% career 2-for-22 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Lita Marie 5-1, R5: Turbo Charged 15-1, R6: True Shot 20-1, R9: Friendly 8-1 · Trainer R5: Balboni's Crew 3-1, R8: Ninja Star 7-2

Owns the highest recent figure here at 73. Gets a new rider, Dane Nelson replacing Emma Jayne Wilson.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 41 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	WO	1m T	Moc25000	10th/10 -8¾L	46	2.7-1	L	Vied btwn5/16;empty
8/28	WO	1 1/16 T	Moc25000c	4th/11 -2L	67	2.5-1	L	Brk in;hound pace;fade
7/24	WO	1m T	Moc25000	2nd/9	73	4.5-1	L	Awk st;led;kept trying

8Kairos MomentD. Moran · M. DunslowMoran · DunslowA67 62 71▲▲+11↕@trip 676-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +1167 62 71 ↕@trip 67A3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 35–71 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 62 71

Jockey David Moran 32% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Mike A Dunslow 17% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Magic Modie 9-2 · Trainer R2: Magic Modie 9-2

CLASS DROP4/6 board here

Finished 2nd in a 7-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at WO, beaten 3¾ lengths. Still looking for the first win after 7 starts.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 28d back

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD David Moran from post 8 here: 4 wins, 10 top-3 in 53 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	1 1/16 D	MCL 10k	2nd/7 -3¾L	67	4.3-1	L	Stp slw;resurgent
8/28	WO	7f D	MCL 15k	3rd/10 -11L	62	6.2-1	L	Bump brk/early;3-7wide
8/7	WO	7f D	MCL 15k	2nd/9 -4½L	71	9.4-1	L	Rallied inside for 2nd

9Pelee Island▼LSL. Contreras · J. MitchellContreras · MitchellC54 51 61▲+320-1Fair 12-17%▲ Up +354 51 61C▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 75LS
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 54 51 61
▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 75LS
Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Luis Contreras 28% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Joan M Mitchell 23% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
★ FASTEST WORK
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Goes 1 1/16 miles after running -7 furlongs last time.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.80 on Sep 11 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
RECORD Luis Contreras from post 9 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 33 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 FE -7f T MCL 8k 5th/6 -7L 54 5.7-1 b L Roused; no response
9/28 FE -7f T MCL 8k 4th/8 -3L 51 9.7-1 b L Mid pack; no threat
9/14 FE -7f T MCL 8k 2nd/8 61 12-1 b L 3-p str; no match

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	FE	-7f T	MCL 8k	5th/6 -7L	54	5.7-1	b L	Roused; no response
9/28	FE	-7f T	MCL 8k	4th/8 -3L	51	9.7-1	b L	Mid pack; no threat
9/14	FE	-7f T	MCL 8k	2nd/8	61	12-1	b L	3-p str; no match

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #7, #9.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $10,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$33,700

Post

3:05 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#5 · 18%

Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.73

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 Gelato (a closer, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 62 · 67 · 72. Backup is #7 No Cape at 5-2. Use #8 Kairos Moment in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 AUDI'S WORLD (9-5) — our number has it ranked #5.
#1 AUDI'S WORLD — our #5 number, about right at the windows (25.4% to their 27.8%).
#7 NO CAPE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 22.3%).
#5 GELATO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 15.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #9 PELEE ISLAND (20-1) — our fair 4.6% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #9 Pelee Island; pressure from #7 No Cape.

Lead

none

Press

9Pelee Island857No Cape84

Stalk

none

5Gelato751Audi's World702Don't Say A Word698Kairos Moment66

No style yet

6Found Money813Metro King764Almasty Five63

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Pelee Island

No Cape

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Audi's World

Kairos Moment

Gelato

Don't Say A Word

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Bet types

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