R5 Woodbine · Claiming $10,000

3:45 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt · $35,400 · 8 runners3:45 PM · 1 1/16m Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $35K · Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Tanist▼LSC. Douglas · R. SadlerDouglas · SadlerC63 67 64►@trip 6720-1Fair 20-15%► Steady63 67 64@trip 67C▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 78LS

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 67 64

▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 78LS

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 10-for-76 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Ronald H Sadler 34% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Lady On The Nile 7-2, R3: Really Big Show 10-1, R4: Don't Say A Word 12-1, R6: Chairman Bob 2-1 +3 more

CLASS DROPJky 6/37 from post 1

Moves up from $4,750 claiming to $10,000 claiming. New trainer: Daniel Wills had it last time, Ronald H Sadler now.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 24d back

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 1 here: 6 wins, 18 top-3 in 37 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	FE	-7f T	Clm 5k n2l	3rd/6 -1¼L	63	5.0-1	b L	5-p str; outfinished
10/9	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	7th/9 -4L	67	35-1	b L	Shadow pace;weakened
9/14	FE	-7f T	MCL 8k	Won/8 by ½	64	3.0-1	b L	Bid str; drew clear

2Turbo ChargedD. Nelson · C. GrantNelson · GrantB62 72 70▼▼-10@trip 7615-1Fair 8-110%▼▼ Big drop -1062 72 70@trip 76B2

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 72 70

Jockey Dane Nelson 31% career 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Carlos Grant 32% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Lita Marie 5-1, R4: No Cape 5-2, R6: True Shot 20-1, R9: Friendly 8-1 · Trainer R1: Big Lew 5-2, R2: Madam Gwen 10-1

CLASS DROP

Last out was 6th, 8½ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse $15,000 claiming race at WO. Class relief: $15,000 claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 9 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k b	6th/6 -8½L	62	7.0-1	b L	Ridden 3/8; no factor
9/25	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k n2l	6th/8 -6L	72	8.4-1	b L	Slw st;trail;pass some
9/12	WO	7½f T	Clm 25k n2l	5th/8 -9½L	70	4.5-1	b L	Well back1/2;late run

3Border FoxJ. Samuel · J. RussoSamuel · RussoC64 76 60▼-6@trip 6410-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -664 76 60@trip 64C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 76 60

Jockey Jalon L Samuel 24% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Joe S Russo 21% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Holiday With Amy 2-1 · Trainer R9: A Real War Story 15-1

A 76 top number against a 78 par, so it fits the level. Was 5th of 6 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 18d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Jalon L Samuel from post 3 here: 5 wins, 19 top-3 in 44 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k n2l	5th/6 -5L	64	3.0-1	b L	Made little impression
9/24	WO	1m T	MCL 15k	Won/10 by 3	76	1.8-1	b L	Std'd 3/8;rallied late
8/28	WO	1 1/16 T	Moc25000	6th/11 -10L	60	4.7-1	b L	Bump st;late interest

4Balboni's CrewE. Wilson · S. ChircopWilson · ChircopA73 75 68▲+3≡@trip 753-1Fair 6-115%▲ Up +373 75 68 ≡@trip 75A

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 68–75 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 75 68

Jockey Emma Jayne Wilson 30% career ★ 10-for-48 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Steven Chircop 30% career 2-for-22 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Quiet Intent 8-1 · Trainer R4: No Cape 5-2, R8: Ninja Star 7-2

CLASS DROP5/10 board here

0 for 4 at today's distance. Beaten 2½ lengths for 2nd in a 9-horse $7,000 claiming race at WO.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 110 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Emma Jayne Wilson from post 4 here: 25 wins, 76 top-3 in 170 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	2nd/9 -2½L	73	1.5-1	b L	Poised1/4;2nd best
9/26	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k n2l	4th/9 -5¼L	75	6.2-1	b L	Closed willingly 5wd
9/7	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	3rd/6 -3½L	68	1.5-1	b L	Inside foe; nod 3rd

5Waheela▼L. Salles · P. DixonSalles · DixonA70 63 67▲+3≡@trip 706-1Fair 10-18%▲ Up +370 63 67 ≡@trip 70A▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78

Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 63–72 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 63 67

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78

Jockey Leo Salles 27% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Patrick Dixon 28% career 0-for-21 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Once Upon A Kiss 7-2, R8: Echo With Laughter 6-1, R9: Ashuka 10-1 · Trainer R2: Holiday With Amy 2-1, R7: Can't Tie Me Down 3-1, R7: Proud Painter 9-2

7/14 board here

A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, $10,000 claiming today. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 115 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 7 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD Leo Salles from post 5 here: 11 wins, 54 top-3 in 143 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	3rd/9 -4L	70	11-1	L	Brk out;clsd in for3rd
9/19	WO	7f D	Clm 7k n2l	4th/6 -10L	63	2.6-1	b L	Hop st;4Wstr;mildly
8/28	WO	7f D	Clm 15k n2l	8th/11 -6L	67	15-1	b L	Chase;2-3w turn;no bid

6You're So Lucky▼P. Moran · W. TharrenosMoran · TharrenosB69 61 60▲▲+8@trip 718-1Fair 15-17%▲▲ Big jump +869 61 60@trip 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 78

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 61 60

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 78

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 16-for-84 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer William Tharrenos 35% career ★ 9-for-33 on dirt this meet (27%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Aussie Hyper 8-1, R3: Elissa's Macho 9-5, R4: Audi's World 9-5, R6: Accelerando 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Bank On Big Winner 8-1, R6: Accelerando 10-1, R8: Military Force 8-1, R9: Gran Ghost 12-1

Has moved up each time out, 60 to 61 to 69. 4th last time, 4¼ lengths back, in a field of 9.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 27d back

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 6 here: 37 wins, 100 top-3 in 223 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	4th/9 -4¼L	69	36-1	b L	Long sustained rally
7/24	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	6th/7 -7½L	61	16-1	b L	Toss head;passed one
7/6	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	6th/6 -10L	60	8.1-1	b L	Made little impact

7Celestial Heart▼J. Alderson · B. PleterskiAlderson · PleterskiB67 69 68►≡@trip 6812-1Fair 15-17%► Steady67 69 68 ≡@trip 68B▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 783

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–69 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 69 68

▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 78

Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson 28% career ★ 6-for-27 on dirt this meet (22%), #2 of 29 · Trainer Bosidar D Pleterski 22% career

Also today · Jockey R2: O Wow 3-1, R7: Tranquillo 10-1, R8: Volcanic 10-1, R9: Twenty Ovas 15-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Best recent figure is 69, well under the 78 par for this level. Won last out in a 7-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at WO.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 131 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 16 starts here

RECORD Jeffrey Ian Alderson from post 7 here: 3 wins, 17 top-3 in 56 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	1 1/16 D	MCL 10k	Won/7 by 3½	67	9.7-1	L	Late rally btwn;up70yd
9/24	WO	1m T	MCL 15k	4th/10 -6½L	69	12-1	L	Lacked room; shuffled
9/11	WO	1 1/16 D	MCL 15k	3rd/6 -1½L	68	4.4-1	L	Willingly ins;clear3rd

8Runner Eyes▲K. Nicholls · D. GittensNicholls · GittensA76 80 78►≡@trip 781-1Fair 7-542%► Steady76 80 78 ≡@trip 78A▲ Lone speed on early pace1

Card model 42% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–80 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 80 78

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Keveh Nicholls 30% career 6-for-41 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Devon Gittens 31% career ★ 8-for-34 on dirt this meet (24%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Field Hockey 2-1, R7: Can't Tie Me Down 3-1, R8: Banker's Hours 20-1 · Trainer R1: Scottie's Barn 6-1, R8: Crucial Taunt 3-1

60D LAYOFFLASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS3/4 board here

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. A 76-day gap since its last race.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 5d back

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Keveh Nicholls from post 8 here: 7 wins, 22 top-3 in 76 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	CNL	1 1/16 T	sFindB125k	4th/6 -8L	76	11-1	b	Slow st;4p1/4;6p upper
7/26	WO	1 1/16 T	OC 40k	2nd/12 -1L	80	5.0-1	b L	Sharp rally5Wupper
7/6	WO	1 1/16 D	OC 40k	2nd/10 -2¾L	78	5.5-1	b L	3-4w;6w3/16;got 2nd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: little early speed. Favors horses who can be close.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Claiming $10,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$35,400

Post

3:45 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#8 · 42%

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.73

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #8 Runner Eyes (a presser/stalker, M/L 1-1). Recent figures: 76 · 80 · 78. Backup is #2 Turbo Charged at 15-1. Use #7 Celestial Heart in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 RUNNER EYES (1-1) — our number agrees.
#8 RUNNER EYES — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (38.2% to their 39.0%).
#4 BALBONI'S CREW — our #5 number, about right at the windows (19.1% to their 19.5%).
#5 WAHEELA — our #8 number, about right at the windows (10.3% to their 11.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 TURBO CHARGED (15-1) — our fair 6.5% is above the morning line's 4.9%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #1 Tanist.

Lead

none

Press

1Tanist83

Stalk

8Runner Eyes863Border Fox714Balboni's Crew707Celestial Heart666You're So Lucky592Turbo Charged58

5Waheela66

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Runner Eyes

Tanist

Border Fox

Balboni's Crew

Celestial Heart

You're So Lucky

Turbo Charged

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Waheela

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Bet types

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