R2 Woodbine · Claiming $15,000

1:50 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Turf · $42,100 · 8 runners1:50 PM · 1 1/16m Turf · 8 runners

Upcoming $42K · Claiming $15,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Madam GwenLSR. Walcott · C. GrantWalcott · GrantC76 70 75▲+5≡@trip 7510-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +576 70 75 ≡@trip 75CLS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · ≡ Steady figures 68–76 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 70 75

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Rico W Walcott 30% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Carlos Grant 32% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Trainer R1: Big Lew 5-2, R5: Turbo Charged 15-1

Beaten 2 lengths for 3rd in a 7-horse $15,000 claiming race at WO. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 7d ago)

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Rico W Walcott from post 1 here: 5 wins, 16 top-3 in 29 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	7½f T	Clm 15k	3rd/7 -2L	76	37-1	b L	Rail trip;willing 3rd
9/25	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 15k	5th/8 -4L	70	6.5-1	b L	Stmbld st;bid1/4;faded
9/4	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k	5th/7 -3L	75	39-1	b L	Near rear ins;no run

2Holiday With Amy▲▲J. Samuel · P. DixonSamuel · DixonA80 75 76▲+72-1Fair 5-116%▲ Up +780 75 76A▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 78▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Last 3 figs 80 75 76

▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 78▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Jalon L Samuel 24% career ★ 4-for-19 on turf this meet (21%), #3 of 26 · Trainer Patrick Dixon 28% career 1-for-24 on turf this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Border Fox 10-1 · Trainer R5: Waheela 6-1, R7: Can't Tie Me Down 3-1, R7: Proud Painter 9-2

60D LAYOFFCLASS UP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJky 8/39 from post 2

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Class relief: $23,500 claiming last time, $15,000 claiming today.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Swung 5w; gaining), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 13d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Jalon L Samuel from post 2 here: 8 wins, 24 top-3 in 39 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/20	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 25k	2nd/7 -5L	80	11-1	b L	Swung 5w; gaining
7/10	WO	6f D	Clm 15k	2nd/6 -2L	75	8.0-1	b L	Inside;rally btwn late
6/13	WO	6f D	Clm 15k	3rd/6 -2½L	76	3.0-1	b L	Rail run1/8;almost2nd

3O Wow▲★J. Alderson · S. RitchieAlderson · RitchieA79 75 70▲+7≡@trip 863-1Fair 4-120%▲ Up +779 75 70 ≡@trip 86A▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 78★ Best at the trip 862

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · ≡ Steady figures 70–79 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 75 70

▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 78★ Best at the trip 86

Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson 28% career ★ 5-for-19 on turf this meet (26%), #1 of 26 · Trainer Sarah Ritchie 21% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Celestial Heart 12-1, R7: Tranquillo 10-1, R8: Volcanic 10-1, R9: Twenty Ovas 15-1

Was running in optional claiming; today's $15,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Has moved up each time out, 70 to 75 to 79.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 34 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Jeffrey Ian Alderson from post 3 here: 6 wins, 27 top-3 in 76 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1 1/16 T	OC 32k n1x	6th/9 -7¼L	79	19-1	L	Outside; came out 9wd
9/4	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k	4th/7 -5L	75	3.7-1	L	5Wstr;best stride late
7/23	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k	8th/9 -8L	70	8.8-1	b L	4w;float 8w;no rally

4Foxy DivaF. Aebly · S. AttardAebly · AttardC69 74 76▼-5≡@trip 768-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -569 74 76 ≡@trip 76C3

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 69–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 74 76

Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 10-for-69 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Steve Attard 33% career 2-for-20 on turf this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Big Lew 5-2, R3: Winning Agenda 2-1, R4: Gelato 4-1, R7: Prime Edge 2-1 +2 more

6/10 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 85. Figures have slipped: 76, 74, 69 over its last three.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 15d back

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 4 here: 34 wins, 105 top-3 in 265 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k	7th/7 -6L	69	9.1-1	L	Made little impression
8/20	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 25k	3rd/7 -5L	74	7.3-1	L	Inside;even;got show
7/23	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k	4th/9 by hd	76	13-1	L	Tracked inside;kept on

5Lady on the NileC. Douglas · S. AttardDouglas · AttardB72 75 76▼-3≡@trip 727-2Fair 9-219%▼ Down -372 75 76 ≡@trip 72B1

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 72–76 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 75 76

Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 6-for-45 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Sid C Attard 33% career 2-for-20 on turf this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Really Big Show 10-1, R4: Don't Say A Word 12-1, R5: Tanist 20-1, R6: Chairman Bob 2-1 +3 more · Trainer R3: Winning Agenda 2-1, R8: Volcanic 10-1

Jky 7/37 from post 5

A big drop, optional claiming to $15,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Carries 118 pounds, 5 less than last time.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 13d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 5 here: 7 wins, 15 top-3 in 37 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1 1/16 T	OC 32k n1x	7th/9 -7¾L	72	12-1	b L	Mid-pack;insd/off rail
9/7	WO	7½f T	OC 32k n1x	3rd/5 -11L	75	7.6-1	b L	Split foes late up3rd
8/6	WO	7½f T	Clm 25k b	Won/7	76	3.6-1	b L	3-4w;drew clear;held

6I'm TenaciousR. Maragh · M. MattineMaragh · MattineA76 69 74▲+5≡@trip 766-1Fair 10-18%▲ Up +5 · career best76 69 74 ≡@trip 76A

Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 69–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 69 74

Jockey Romero Ramsay Maragh 27% career 3-for-32 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Michael Mattine 26% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Bank On Big Winner 8-1, R3: Pat's Holiday 20-1, R4: Metro King 20-1, R9: A Real War Story 15-1 · Trainer R4: Found Money 12-1

5/10 board here

2nd last time, a head back, in a field of 8. Led at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 12d ago

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Romero Ramsay Maragh from post 6 here: 5 wins, 21 top-3 in 46 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 15k	2nd/8 by hd	76	13-1	L	Dictate pace;2nd best
9/10	WO	7f D	Clm 15k b	Won/7 by 3¾	69	5.8-1	L	Inside;came out 6w;up
8/6	WO	7½f T	Clm 25k b	3rd/8 -5L	74	12-1	L	4Pstr;outduel for2nd

7Aussie HyperP. Moran · M. DepauloMoran · DepauloB72 73 69►≡@trip 778-1Fair 12-18%► Steady72 73 69 ≡@trip 77B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 69–77 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 73 69

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career ★ 15-for-74 on turf this meet (20%) · Trainer Michael P Depaulo

Also today · Jockey R3: Elissa's Macho 9-5, R4: Audi's World 9-5, R5: You're So Lucky 8-1, R6: Accelerando 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Tranquillo 10-1

Changes barns, from Anthony Husbands to Michael P Depaulo. 2nd of 25 at 4F on Jul 15, in :47.80.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (5Wstr mildly; minors), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 7 here: 33 wins, 83 top-3 in 182 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 15k c	4th/8 -5½L	72	4.5-1	L	5Wstr mildly;minors
8/29	WO	1 1/16 D	Alw s	4th/7 by nk	73	12-1	L	Driven;game try inside
8/16	WO	1m T	OC 32k n1x	6th/6 -7L	69	27-1	L	Retreated 3W5/16

8Magic ModieD. Moran · M. DunslowMoran · DunslowB68 76 67▼-59-2Fair 8-112%▼ Down -568 76 67B

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Last 3 figs 68 76 67

Jockey David Moran 32% career 1-for-18 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Mike A Dunslow 17% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Kairos Moment 6-1 · Trainer R4: Kairos Moment 6-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Worked 3F in :35.80 on Oct 23, 2nd of 8 at the distance. Best recent figure of 76 sits right around the 78 par.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD David Moran from post 8 here: 4 wins, 10 top-3 in 53 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	WO	1m T	Alw s	6th/7 -6½L	68	9.6-1	L	Chased btwn5/16;wilted
8/29	WO	1 1/16 D	Alw s	Won/7	76	17-1	L	On hold3/8-7/16;surged
8/8	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k	4th/7 -4L	67	5.2-1	L	One paced str;minors

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #6, #7, #8.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $15,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$42,100

Post

1:50 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#5 · 19%

Claiming $15,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.85

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 Lady On The Nile (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 72 · 75 · 76. Backup is #3 O Wow at 3-1. Use #4 Foxy Diva in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 HOLIDAY WITH AMY (2-1) — our number has it ranked #8.
#2 HOLIDAY WITH AMY — our #8 number, about right at the windows (21.4% to their 23.1%).
#3 O WOW — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.5% to their 17.3%).
#5 LADY ON THE NILE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.1% to their 15.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #6 I'm Tenacious; pressure from #8 Magic Modie, #7 Aussie Hyper.

Lead

none

Press

6I'm Tenacious838Magic Modie797Aussie Hyper68

Stalk

5Lady On The Nile871Madam Gwen812Holiday With Amy803O Wow784Foxy Diva73

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Lady On The Nile

I'm Tenacious

Madam Gwen

Holiday With Amy

Magic Modie

O Wow

Foxy Diva

Aussie Hyper

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Holiday With Amy

O Wow

Lady On The Nile

Foxy Diva

I'm Tenacious

Aussie Hyper

Madam Gwen

Magic Modie

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

ROLLING DOUBLE / EXACTA / 0.20 TRIFECTA / 0.20 SUPERFECTA

0.20 PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / 0.20 $50;000 PICK 5 (RACES 2-3-4-5-6)

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