R1 Woodbine · Claiming $7,500

1:20 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $29,600 · 6 runners1:20 PM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $30K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #4 Big Lew (5-2) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 73 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

1Field HockeyK. Nicholls · J. WhalenNicholls · WhalenA71 69 65▲+3≡@trip 712-1Fair 7-222%▲ Up +371 69 65 ≡@trip 71A

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 65–71 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 69 65

Jockey Keveh Nicholls 30% career 6-for-41 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer John Whalen 16% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Runner Eyes 1-1, R7: Can't Tie Me Down 3-1, R8: Banker's Hours 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Drops from $15,000 claiming to $7,500 claiming. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 81, with 75 next best.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (7W3/16; showed little), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.20 on Aug 26 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Keveh Nicholls from post 1 here: 20 wins, 55 top-3 in 141 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	WO	6f D	Clm 15k n2l	7th/9 -6¾L	71	16-1	L	7W3/16;showed little
9/11	WO	5½f D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/5 -1L	69	4.8-1	L	Unruly;5W3/16;2ndbest
5/30	WO	6f D	Clm 15k n2l	6th/7 -3¾L	65	6.5-1	L	Brush early;4w1/4;flat

2Bank on Big Winner▼R. Maragh · W. TharrenosMaragh · TharrenosB58 45 48▲▲+18↕@trip 718-1Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +1858 45 48 ↕@trip 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 791

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 26–58 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 45 48

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Romero Ramsay Maragh 27% career 2-for-34 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer William Tharrenos 35% career ★ 9-for-33 on dirt this meet (27%)

Also today · Jockey R2: I'm Tenacious 6-1, R3: Pat's Holiday 20-1, R4: Metro King 20-1, R9: A Real War Story 15-1 · Trainer R5: You're So Lucky 8-1, R6: Accelerando 10-1, R8: Military Force 8-1, R9: Gran Ghost 12-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/6 board here

Class relief: $14,000 claiming last time, $7,500 claiming today. A 58 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bump brk; clear; empty), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 59d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Romero Ramsay Maragh from post 2 here: 7 wins, 16 top-3 in 50 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	7f D	Clm 15k n2l	8th/8 -3¼L	58	35-1	b L	Bump brk;clear;empty
9/21	FE	-7f T	Alw n2l	6th/6 -4¼L	45	27-1	b L	Brk out start gave way
9/7	FE	6½f D	sLakeErie150k	9th/10 -11L	48	49-1	b L	No speed; dull effort

3Autobahn AceR. Hernandez · P. ParenteHernandez · ParenteA62 66 65▼-4≡3-1Fair 9-219%▼ Down -462 66 65 ≡A3

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 62–67 · Last 3 figs 62 66 65

Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez 38% career 10-for-54 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Pat Parente 25% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R7: Runaway Rocket 5-2

CLASS DROP

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. A longer trip: -7 furlongs last out, 6 furlongs today.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 22d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Rafael Manuel Hernandez from post 3 here: 59 wins, 143 top-3 in 262 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	FE	-7f T	Clm 5k n2l	4th/6 -1L	62	1.1-1	L	In tight mid str; even
9/19	WO	7f D	Clm 7k n2l	3rd/6 -4½L	66	2.6-1	L	Lost duel place 70yds
8/31	FE	6½f D	Clm 10k n2l	5th/7 -3½L	65	2.3-1	L	Hustled; nothing left

4Big Lew★F. Aebly · C. GrantAebly · GrantA64 66 68▼-5≡@trip 735-2Fair 4-120%▼ Down -564 66 68 ≡@trip 73A★ Best at the trip 73

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 64–73 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 66 68

★ Best at the trip 73

Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 16-for-90 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Carlos Grant 32% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Foxy Diva 8-1, R3: Winning Agenda 2-1, R4: Gelato 4-1, R7: Prime Edge 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Madam Gwen 10-1, R5: Turbo Charged 15-1

CLASS DROP

Last start: 3rd in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at WO. A 75 top number against a 79 par, so it fits the level.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 1 win, 8 on the board from 19 starts here

RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 4 here: 34 wins, 105 top-3 in 265 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	WO	5½f D	Clm 7k n2l	3rd/7	64	3.4-1	b L	To lead3P1/8;caught
9/11	WO	5½f D	Clm 15k n2l	4th/5 -1L	66	3.8-1	b L	Bid4Wbtwn3/16;evenly
8/22	WO	5½f D	Clm 15k n2l	4th/6	68	6.0-1	b L	Set pace;engulfed 16th

5Smarter Still▼▼J. Hoyte · B. ChubbHoyte · ChubbB67 67 63►≡@trip 678-1Fair 7-113%► Steady67 67 63 ≡@trip 67B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises2

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 63–67 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 67 63

▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Jason Hoyte 23% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Beverley Chubb 26% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Was 5th of 6 at the first call last time. A 67 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 126d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Jason Hoyte from post 5 here: 8 wins, 29 top-3 in 87 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	FE	5½f D	Clm 5k n3l	3rd/6 -3L	67	20-1	b L	4-p str; up for show
9/29	FE	6f D	Clm 6k n2l	3rd/6 by hd	67	16-1	b L	3-p str; outfinished
9/7	FE	5f D	MCL 6k	Won/4	63	0.1-1	b L	3-p str; kept to task

6Scottie's Barn▼▲D. Bynoe · D. GittensBynoe · GittensB63 47 50▲▲+9↕@trip 666-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +963 47 50 ↕@trip 66B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 79▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–66 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 47 50

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 79▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Desean Bynoe 34% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Devon Gittens 31% career ★ 8-for-34 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R5: Runner Eyes 1-1, R8: Crucial Taunt 3-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Won last out in a 6-horse maiden claiming $7,500 race at WO. A 66 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Desean Bynoe from post 6 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 39 rides · 6% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	WO	5½f D	MCL 7k	Won/6	63	10-1	b L	Game effort on lead
8/21	WO	5½f D	MCL 10k	9th/11 -5½L	47	16-1	b L	Chance3W3/16;wilted
7/10	WO	6f D	MCL 10k	6th/7 -4¼L	50	9.4-1	b L	Regressed rail turn

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Claiming $7,500

Field

6 runners

Purse

$29,600

Post

1:20 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#2 · 18%

Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.63

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Bank On Big Winner (early speed, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 58 · 45 · 48. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #5 Smarter Still at 8-1. Use #3 Autobahn Ace in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 FIELD HOCKEY (2-1) — our number has it ranked #5.
#1 FIELD HOCKEY — our #5 number, about right at the windows (24.8% to their 27.0%).
#4 BIG LEW — our #4 number, about right at the windows (22.4% to their 23.2%).
#3 AUTOBAHN ACE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 20.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 BANK ON BIG WINNER (8-1) — our fair 12.1% is above the morning line's 9.0%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Scottie's Barn; pressure from #2 Bank On Big Winner, #4 Big Lew; the shape helps #1 Field Hockey, #3 Autobahn Ace, #4 Big Lew; and works against #2 Bank On Big Winner, #6 Scottie's Barn.

Lead

6Scottie's Barn952Bank On Big Winner88

Press

4Big Lew915Smarter Still901Field Hockey833Autobahn Ace79

Stalk

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Scottie's Barn

Big Lew

Smarter Still

Bank On Big Winner

Field Hockey

Autobahn Ace

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Scottie's Barn

Autobahn Ace

Field Hockey

Big Lew

Smarter Still

Bank On Big Winner

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