R3 Woodbine · Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

2:25 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt · $71,700 · 6 runners2:25 PM · 1 1/16m Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $72K · Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Lita MarieD. Nelson · H. SprengerNelson · SprengerB72 73 60▲+7@trip 735-1Fair 8-112%▲ Up +772 73 60@trip 73B

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 73 60

Jockey Dane Nelson 31% career 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Hannah C Sprenger 14% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R4: No Cape 5-2, R5: Turbo Charged 15-1, R6: True Shot 20-1, R9: Friendly 8-1

4/7 board here

Runs for $71,700 after a $53,600 race last out. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 131d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	WO	1m T	Moc25000	2nd/10 -4½L	72	5.0-1	L	3w;rallied inside;miss
9/19	WO	1 1/16 D	Moc25000	2nd/7 -½L	73	5.7-1	L	Set pace;no match1/8
8/27	WO	1 1/16 T	Moc25000	6th/8 -6½L	60	7.8-1	L	Brushes early;4-7wide

2Pat's Holiday▼LSR. Maragh · L. BarrowMaragh · BarrowB63 67 65►≡@trip 6620-1Fair 20-14%► Steady63 67 65 ≡@trip 66B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 77LS

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 62–67 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 67 65

▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 77LS

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Romero Ramsay Maragh 27% career 2-for-34 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer L Rodney Barrow 32% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Bank On Big Winner 8-1, R2: I'm Tenacious 6-1, R4: Metro King 20-1, R9: A Real War Story 15-1

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 67 against a 77 par.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Romero Ramsay Maragh from post 2 here: 7 wins, 16 top-3 in 50 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	WO	1m T	Moc25000	5th/10 -5L	63	7.2-1	b L	Stalk;3-4w;weakened
9/25	WO	7½f T	Moc25000	5th/9 -7L	67	8.4-1	L	6Wstr;good late energy
8/27	WO	1 1/16 T	Moc25000	4th/8 -2½L	65	27-1	b L	Hop st;moved btwn 9/16

3Once Upon a Kiss▲L. Salles · B. MillerSalles · MillerA58 70 83▼▼-17↕7-2Fair 9-219%▼▼ Big drop -1758 70 83 ↕A▲ Lone speed on early pace3

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–83 · Last 3 figs 58 70 83

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Leo Salles 27% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Blair Miller 30% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Waheela 6-1, R8: Echo With Laughter 6-1, R9: Ashuka 10-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 83. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 18 (3F in :36.20), 3 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Leo Salles from post 3 here: 15 wins, 55 top-3 in 157 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	WO	6f D	Moc40000	8th/10 -5½L	58	4.0-1	L	Dueled;retreat2W5/16
8/29	WO	7f D	Moc40000	5th/8 -5½L	70	3.1-1	L	Press;came out 6wd
8/8	WO	6½f D	Moc40000	2nd/7	83	5.1-1	L	Set pace;almost lasted

4Elissa's Macho▲P. Moran · R. HayashiMoran · HayashiA77 73 71▲+5≡@trip 739-5Fair 5-228%▲ Up +5 · career best77 73 71 ≡@trip 73A▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 772

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 71–77 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 73 71

▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 77

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 16-for-84 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Richard G Hayashi 21% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Aussie Hyper 8-1, R4: Audi's World 9-5, R5: You're So Lucky 8-1, R6: Accelerando 10-1 +1 more

4/5 board here

Figures are climbing: 71, 73, 77 over its last three. 4th last time, 3¾ lengths back, in a field of 8.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Came out str; brush foe last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 5d ago)

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 4 here: 40 wins, 99 top-3 in 220 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	1 1/16 T	Moc40000	4th/8 -3¾L	77	3.3-1	b L	Came out str;brush foe
7/4	WO	1 1/16 D	Moc40000	2nd/8 -2½L	73	3.7-1	L	Bob brk;3w;lug out3/16
6/11	WO	7½f T	Moc40000	2nd/8 -2L	71	5.1-1	L	Bmpd brk;btwn;5w str

5Really Big Show▼C. Douglas · N. NosowenkoDouglas · NosowenkoB67 68 70►≡@trip 6810-1Fair 12-18%► Steady67 68 70 ≡@trip 68B▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 77

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 65–70 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 68 70

▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 10-for-76 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Nicholas Nosowenko 25% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Lady On The Nile 7-2, R4: Don't Say A Word 12-1, R5: Tanist 20-1, R6: Chairman Bob 2-1 +3 more · Trainer R4: Don't Say A Word 12-1

Jky 7/37 from post 5

Back to 1 1/16 miles off a 1 3/8 miles race. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 5 here: 7 wins, 15 top-3 in 37 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1⅜m T	MSW	5th/7 -7¼L	67	49-1	b L	Vied2Wbtwn5/16;wilted
9/19	WO	1 1/16 D	Moc25000	3rd/7 -7L	68	5.9-1	b L	Waited5/16;late run3rd
8/27	WO	1 1/16 T	Moc25000	3rd/8 -5L	70	8.8-1	b L	Fanned 8w;best of rest

6Winning Agenda▲★F. Aebly · S. AttardAebly · AttardA77 74 71▲▲+10@trip 762-1Fair 5-229%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best77 74 71@trip 76A▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 77★ Best at the trip 761

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 74 71

▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 77★ Best at the trip 76

Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 16-for-90 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Sid C Attard 33% career 4-for-27 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Big Lew 5-2, R2: Foxy Diva 8-1, R4: Gelato 4-1, R7: Prime Edge 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Lady On The Nile 7-2, R8: Volcanic 10-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORK

Maiden through 12 starts. Switches from turf to dirt.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:03.00 on Oct 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 6 here: 31 wins, 84 top-3 in 220 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	1 1/16 T	Moc40000	5th/8 -3¾L	77	2.2-1	L	Outside;forced out str
9/5	WO	7½f T	Moc40000	3rd/9 -5L	74	2.4-1	L	Circled 3-6W far turn
8/14	WO	1 1/16 T	Moc40000	2nd/8 by hd	71	1.9-1	L	Game try;duel thru-out

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #1, #6.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$71,700

Post

2:25 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#6 · 29%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.73

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #6 Winning Agenda (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 77 · 74 · 71. Backup is #4 Elissa's Macho at 9-5. Use #3 Once Upon A Kiss in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 ELISSA'S MACHO (9-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
#4 ELISSA'S MACHO — our #2 number, about right at the windows (28.8% to their 29.3%).
#6 WINNING AGENDA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.6% to their 27.4%).
#3 ONCE UPON A KISS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.4% to their 18.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Once Upon A Kiss; pressure from #6 Winning Agenda, #1 Lita Marie; the shape helps #1 Lita Marie, #2 Pat's Holiday, #4 Elissa's Macho; and works against #3 Once Upon A Kiss.

Lead

3Once Upon A Kiss86

Press

6Winning Agenda841Lita Marie76

Stalk

4Elissa's Macho832Pat's Holiday77

5Really Big Show82

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Once Upon A Kiss

Winning Agenda

Elissa's Macho

Pat's Holiday

Lita Marie

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Really Big Show

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