R8 Woodbine · Claiming $5,000

5:45 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $27,800 · 10 runners5:45 PM · 7f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $28K · Claiming $5,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Happy Quad▼K. Johnson · C. MacHesneyJohnson · MacHesneyC62 59 61►≡@trip 6120-1Fair 30-13%► Steady62 59 61 ≡@trip 61C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 59–67 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 59 61

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Kirk Johnson 27% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cory B Machesney 14% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R9: Gran Ghost 12-1
    CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

    A 67 is the high figure lately, short of the 81 par. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.20 on Sep 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 6 starts here
    RECORD Kirk Johnson from post 1 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 26 rides · 4% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/20FE6f DClm 5k b6th/9 -7½L6273-1L6-p str; passed foes
    10/2WO6½f DClm 10k7th/7 -7L5947-1Trailed thru-out
    9/18WO7f DClm 7k6th/8 -7L6136-1bCheck7/16;pass tired
  2. 2Military Force▼★C. Douglas · W. TharrenosDouglas · TharrenosB70 72 68►≡@trip 828-1Fair 6-114%► Steady70 72 68 ≡@trip 82B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 821

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–74 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 72 68

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 82
    Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 10-for-76 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer William Tharrenos 35% career ★ 9-for-33 on dirt this meet (27%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Lady On The Nile 7-2, R3: Really Big Show 10-1, R4: Don't Say A Word 12-1, R5: Tanist 20-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Bank On Big Winner 8-1, R5: You're So Lucky 8-1, R6: Accelerando 10-1, R9: Gran Ghost 12-1

    Drops from $7,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming. 4th last time, 3 lengths back, in a field of 7.

    EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 90d ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here
    RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 2 here: 3 wins, 14 top-3 in 46 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10WO7f DClm 7k4th/7 -3L705.6-1b LMildly;minor placing
    9/18WO7f DClm 7k4th/8 -2½L725.2-1b L3Pstr;lacked rally1/8
    8/23WO1 1/16 DClm 10k4th/6 -2¼L6811-1b LBid3Wfar turn;fringes
  3. 3Sunrise DriveE. Flores · D. GlennonFlores · GlennonA72 77 75▼-4≡@trip 775-2Fair 5-116%▼ Down -472 77 75 ≡@trip 77A

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 72–77 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 77 75

    Jockey Eswan Flores 32% career 4-for-34 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Darren C Glennon 16% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R7: Proud Painter 9-2
    7/12 board here

    Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 7 furlongs. Class relief: $9,500 claiming last time, $5,000 claiming today.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 69d back)
    RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 12 starts here
    RECORD Eswan Flores from post 3 here: 28 wins, 60 top-3 in 156 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17WO1 1/16 DClm 10k8th/9 -8L729.4-1b L2Wretreated btwn1/4
    9/18WO7f DClm 7kWon/8772.1-1b LPrevail btwn str drive
    8/28WO1 1/16 DAlw s4th/9 -1¾L756.1-1b LWillingly;held minors
  4. 4Alley Oop JohnnyLSF. Aebly · P. HallAebly · HallC58 62 67▼▼-915-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -958 62 67CLS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 58 62 67

    LS

    Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 16-for-90 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Philip Hall 30% career 2-for-18 on dirt this meet (11%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Big Lew 5-2, R2: Foxy Diva 8-1, R3: Winning Agenda 2-1, R4: Gelato 4-1 +2 more
    CLASS UP

    Philip Hall takes over the training from Pat Parente. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.

    PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 1)
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 43d back)
    RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts here
    RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 4 here: 34 wins, 105 top-3 in 265 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/11WO7½f TClm 15k8th/8 -12L5825-1b LBrk in;3-4w;drop back
    9/26WO1 1/16 DClm 7k6th/6 -2L624.8-1b LSet soft pace;fold1/8
    8/23WO1 1/16 DClm 10k6th/6 -2L672.9-1b LSet soft pace;fold1/8
  5. 5Banker's HoursK. Nicholls · R. LafondNicholls · LafondC71 66 71►≡@trip 7820-1Fair 12-18%► Steady71 66 71 ≡@trip 78C3

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 66–72 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 66 71

    Jockey Keveh Nicholls 30% career 6-for-41 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Renico E Lafond 20% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Field Hockey 2-1, R5: Runner Eyes 1-1, R7: Can't Tie Me Down 3-1

    Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start. Beaten 4 lengths for 4th in a 6-horse $7,500 claiming race at WO.

    EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 18 starts here
    RECORD Keveh Nicholls from post 5 here: 11 wins, 49 top-3 in 131 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/23WO6f DClm 7k4th/6 -4L7126-1b L4Wstr;mildly;fringes
    10/1WO6½f DAlw s6th/7 -11L6610-1b LTrailed;pass straggler
    9/6WO6f DClm 7k c8th/10 -3¾L717.7-1b LChckd early;lack room
  6. 6Echo With LaughterL. Salles · D. PowellSalles · PowellA76 75 71►≡@trip 766-1Fair 8-110%► Steady76 75 71 ≡@trip 76A

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 75 71

    Jockey Leo Salles 27% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Dale A Powell 30% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Once Upon A Kiss 7-2, R5: Waheela 6-1, R9: Ashuka 10-1
    CLASS DROP

    Finished 3rd in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at WO, beaten a head. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 85).

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jun 21; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 10 starts here
    RECORD Leo Salles from post 6 here: 14 wins, 51 top-3 in 147 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10WO7f DClm 7k3rd/7 by hd762.4-1LOpen up1/4;fade ins16
    9/25WO1 1/16 TClm 15k7th/12 -6¼L7522-1L6W1/4no room;idled
    9/6WO7f DAlw s6th/7 -8¾L7144-1LTried to circle4Wturn
  7. 7Crucial TauntJ. Crawford · D. GittensCrawford · GittensB69 83 74▼-6@trip 733-1Fair 4-120%▼ Down -669 83 74@trip 73B2

    Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 83 74

    Jockey J Crawford 30% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Devon Gittens 31% career ★ 8-for-34 on dirt this meet (24%)
    Also today · Jockey R6: Lasting Silence 5-2 · Trainer R1: Scottie's Barn 6-1, R5: Runner Eyes 1-1

    0 for 4 at today's distance. Was running in allowance; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

    EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 14d ago
    RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 14 starts here
    RECORD J Crawford from post 7 here: 5 wins, 23 top-3 in 85 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/6WO7f DAlw s7th/7 -8¾L6911-1b LTrack3Wturn;empty1/8
    8/28WO6½f DClm 7k bWon/7833.0-1b LMoved 4w; drew off
    8/14WO6½f DClm 15k b4th/7 -3¾L7411-1b LStep slow;alter 7w str
  8. 8VolcanicJ. Alderson · S. AttardAlderson · AttardB69 80 71▼-710-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -769 80 71B

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 69 80 71

    Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson 28% career ★ 6-for-27 on dirt this meet (22%), #2 of 29 · Trainer Sid C Attard 33% career 4-for-27 on dirt this meet (15%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: O Wow 3-1, R5: Celestial Heart 12-1, R7: Tranquillo 10-1, R9: Twenty Ovas 15-1 · Trainer R2: Lady On The Nile 7-2, R3: Winning Agenda 2-1

    Jeffrey Ian Alderson takes over from Fraser Aebly in the saddle. Shortens up to 7 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 3Wturns; 7W3/16empty. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 27d ago)
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 11 starts here
    RECORD Jeffrey Ian Alderson from post 8 here: 3 wins, 14 top-3 in 53 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17WO1 1/16 DClm 10k9th/9 -10L695.8-1L3Wturns;7W3/16empty
    9/11WO1 1/16 DClm 7k bWon/11802.8-1LPounce3W5/16;held well
    8/9WO1 1/16 DClm 15k7th/8 -5¼L714.2-1b LInside;chased;faded
  9. 9Armino▼L. Reyes · K. PalmerReyes · PalmerC60 71 67▼▼-10@trip 7320-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1060 71 67@trip 73C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 71 67

    ▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81
    Jockey Luis R Reyes 30% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Kerron Palmer 23% career 1-for-23 on dirt this meet (4%)
    Also today · Trainer R4: Metro King 20-1, R9: Ashuka 10-1
    CLASS DROP

    Switches from turf to dirt. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 73 against a 81 par.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 20d ago
    RECORD 3 wins, 4 on the board from 9 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/20FE1m TOC 10k9th/9 -7¾L6033-1b LWell back; dull effort
    9/26WO1 1/16 DClm 7k5th/6 -3½L7122-1b LTrail1/2;late interest
    9/4WO1 1/16 DClm 7k7th/7 -8¾L675.0-1b LBrk in;4-5w;shift 5/16
  10. 10Ninja StarJ. Campos · S. ChircopCampos · ChircopA75 79 73▼-47-2Fair 6-114%▼ Down -475 79 73A

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 75 79 73

    Jockey Jose Luis Campos 26% career 9-for-55 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Steven Chircop 30% career 2-for-22 on dirt this meet (9%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Found Money 12-1, R6: Legal Catch 3-1 · Trainer R4: No Cape 5-2, R5: Balboni's Crew 3-1
    CLASS DROP

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 84, with 83 next best. A big drop, $10,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming, and worth asking why.

    PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 1)
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 62d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here
    RECORD Jose Luis Campos from post 10 here: 1 win, 5 top-3 in 42 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17WO1 1/16 DClm 10k6th/9 -6L755.2-1LChased;engulfed3/16
    9/25WO1 1/16 TClm 15k5th/12 -2½L7921-1LChance1/4;faded 16th
    9/5WO1 1/16 TClm 25k5th/7 -10L738.8-1LCould not get involved

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½¾FINISHSTART7 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

WOODBINE · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field
10 runners
Purse
$27,800
Post
5:45 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#2 · 14%

Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.07

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Military Force (a closer, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 70 · 72 · 68. Backup is #7 Crucial Taunt at 3-1. Use #5 Banker's Hours in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #3 SUNRISE DRIVE (5-2) — our number has it ranked #7.
  • #3 SUNRISE DRIVE — our #7 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 21.8%).
  • #7 CRUCIAL TAUNT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.9% to their 19.1%).
  • #10 NINJA STAR — our #4 number, about right at the windows (16.3% to their 17.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 BANKER'S HOURS (20-1) — our fair 4.7% is above the morning line's 3.6%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Alley Oop Johnny; pressure from #10 Ninja Star, #6 Echo With Laughter; the shape helps #1 Happy Quad, #3 Sunrise Drive, #6 Echo With Laughter; and works against #4 Alley Oop Johnny, #10 Ninja Star.

Lead
4Alley Oop Johnny8010Ninja Star78
Press
6Echo With Laughter851Happy Quad778Volcanic74
Stalk
3Sunrise Drive779Armino56
Close
7Crucial Taunt835Banker's Hours822Military Force73

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

6
Echo With Laughter
85
4
Alley Oop Johnny
80
10
Ninja Star
78
1
Happy Quad
77
3
Sunrise Drive
77
8
Volcanic
74
9
Armino
56

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

5
Banker's Hours
17
7
Crucial Taunt
15
2
Military Force
13
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