★ Distance horse: #1 Booth (4-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 100 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.
1Booth★J. Ortiz · S. AsmussenOrtiz · AsmussenA92 96 55▲▲+12↕@trip 1004-1Fair 6-114%
▲▲ Big jump +1292 96 55 ↕@trip 100A★ Best at the trip 100Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–96 · Best fig at today's trip 100 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 96 55
★ Best at the trip 100Also today · Jockey R1: Highwaymen 6-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R4: Explora 4-1, R5: Possiblemente 12-1 +7 more · Trainer R1: Powerline 8-5, this race: Extra Anejo 8-1, R8: Stradale 20-1, R12: Magnitude 6-1★ FASTEST WORKRuns for $185,000 today after a $400,000 race last time. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 20; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 KEE 6f D Phoenix G2 4th/8 by hd 92 6.7-1 2w-3p;vied;yielded btw 7/11 PRM 6f D IowaSpntB100k Won/8 96 2.3-1 Clear 5/16;kpt to task 6/27 LS 5f T GrpTfSprtB125k 9th/9 -14L 55 16-1 L Gave way turn 2Steeze▲J. Alvarado · R. MottAlvarado · MottA96 91 84▲▲+8@trip 918-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best96 91 84@trip 91A▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 93Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 91 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 91 84
▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 93Also today · Jockey R2: Right In Time 5-2, R6: T Kraft 15-1, R10: Immersive 30-1, R12: Sovereignty 5-2 · Trainer R2: Right In Time 5-2WON LASTWinner of a 9-horse optional claiming race at KEE last time. A longer trip: -7 furlongs last out, 6½ furlongs today.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 30d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 KEE -7f D OC 80k n2x Won/9 by hd 96 5.5-1 L 2wbtw;4p1/4;rally;clrd 8/22 ELP 6½f D OC 62k n2x 3rd/7 -4L 91 11-1 L Lag 2p;5p upr;ran on 3/14 CNL 1 1/16 D OC 50k n2x 4th/6 -3L 84 2.0-1 L 3wd bid turn; empty 3Jimmy Rules▼W. Rodriguez · S. AndersonRodriguez · AndersonC89 93 94▲+6↕30-1Fair 50-12%
▲ Up +689 93 94 ↕C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–94 · Last 3 figs 89 93 94
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesWON LASTComes in off a victory in a 7-horse allowance race at TDN. A step up in company: allowance before, allowance optional claiming today.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.SHARP LAST OUT Duel insd; proved best last out, and it did it the right way.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 TDN 6f D Alw b Won/7 89 0.7-1 L Duel insd;proved best 8/31 TDN 6f D Alw n3l Won/8 93 0.6-1 L 2w; move; easily 7/28 TDN 6f D Alw n2l Won/9 94 0.7-1 L Full of run;going away 4Lips Say BlissLSC. Torres · R. MedinaTorres · MedinaC89 85 92►≡15-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady89 85 92 ≡CLSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 85–92 · Last 3 figs 89 85 92
LSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKSwitches from turf to dirt. Off 61 days since the last start.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 10 (4F in :48.20), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/30 KD 6½f T OC 100k n3x 3rd/11 -6½L 89 23-1 b L Ins;2w str;late rally 2/8 OP 6f D KingCottn Stk 5th/5 -6L 85 18-1 b 3p5/16;6p lane;no bid 12/20 OP 6f D OC 62k n2x Won/9 by 6½ 92 4.3-1 b L Off slw;bmp;rail rally 5Extra Anejo▼K. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenB88 93 88▼-3≡@trip 888-1Fair 10-19%
▼ Down -388 93 88 ≡@trip 88B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (88 vs 93)3Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 88–93 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 93 88
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (88 vs 93)★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTMoves up from allowance to allowance optional claiming. Won last out in an 8-horse allowance race at RP.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 22; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 RP 6½f D Alw b Won/8 88 0.7-1 L Rallied; 4w; driving; 8/9 ELP 1m D RACwbyJnsB200k 4th/7 -4L 93 12-1 Prss wnnr;btw 2nd;fade 6/27 CD 6½f D Bango G3 5th/6 -5L 88 8.8-1 Inside;no menace btwn 6Will Take ItB. Hernandez Jr. · D. StewartHernandez Jr. · StewartC86 95 84▼-412-1Fair 15-16%
▼ Down -486 95 84CCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 86 95 84
Also today · Jockey R1: Candor 20-1, R9: Brilliant Berti 30-1, R11: Burnham Square 8-1 · Trainer R1: Candor 20-160D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS158 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Shortens up to 6½ furlongs after going a mile.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/25 LS 1m D SSxtnMle G3 7th/9 -3¼L 86 15-1 b Gain 2w;angl 3-4w 5/2 CD 1m D rKnicksGo Stk 4th/9 -3L 95 22-1 b Got through; weakened 3/28 OP 1m D OklwnMle G3 5th/7 -5¾L 84 12-1 b Rated rail; no fnl bid 7Durante▼J. Rosario · D. JacobsonRosario · JacobsonC81 71 80►@trip 8120-1Fair 30-14%
► Steady81 71 80@trip 81C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 71 80
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesAlso today · Jockey R1: You Want Some 12-1, R6: Full Serrano 10-1, R10: Super Corredora 15-1 · Trainer this race: Tennessee Lamb 12-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYSA 90 top number against a 93 par, so it fits the level. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 93).
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 KEE 6½f D OC 100k n3x 3rd/5 -3L 81 3.9-1 b L Clear;caught 1/4;yield 9/5 KD 6f T TrfSprnt G2 11th/11 -6L 71 76-1 b Hop st;4w;no threat 6/13 DEL 6f D AlapocsRnB100k 7th/7 -4¾L 80 15-1 b Stalk4w;6w upper;empty 8Tennessee Lamb▼T. Gaffalione · D. JacobsonGaffalione · JacobsonB91 90 63▲▲+18↕@trip 8912-1Fair 15-17%
▲▲ Big jump +1891 90 63 ↕@trip 89B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–91 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 90 63
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesAlso today · Jockey R1: Supreme Commander 5-1, R4: R Disaster 8-1, R6: Iron Man Cal 12-1, R7: Lush Lips 12-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Durante 20-160D LAYOFF5 WORKS IN 30 DAYSChanges barns, from George R Ii Arnold to David Jacobson. Has moved up each time out, 63 to 90 to 91.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 5 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/9 ELP 1m D RACwbyJnsB200k 5th/7 -6½L 91 34-1 b 3p;5p3/16;no factor 6/28 CD 1 1/16 D OC 100k n3x 5th/7 -5L 90 37-1 b L 2-3p;5p1/4;no menace 5/9 CD 1⅛m D OC 100k n3x 7th/7 -10L 63 13-1 b L Took back btw3/4;faded 9Sir Greylind▼F. Arrieta · M. DouaihyArrieta · DouaihyB88 93 96▼-5≡8-1Fair 10-19%
▼ Down -588 93 96 ≡B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises1Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 88–96 · Last 3 figs 88 93 96
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFreshened 266 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Michel Douaihy takes over the training from Kenneth G McPeek.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bump st; 4p; 7p upper. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.60 on Sep 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 2/6 OP 1⅛m D rGnMcArthrB135k 5th/7 -4¾L 88 4.2-1 Bump st; 4p; 7p upper 1/17 FG 1 1/16 D Louisana G3 5th/8 -3L 93 7.1-1 L Willingly outside 12/20 FG 1 1/16 D Tenacious Stk 2nd/6 -4½L 96 2.9-1 L Trail; rally ins; miss 10Floodlites▼P. Lopez · W. WardLopez · WardC76 82 97▼▼-16↕@trip 7612-1Fair 15-16%
▼▼ Big drop -1676 82 97 ↕@trip 76C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 82)Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 76–98 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 82 97
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 82)Also today · Jockey R8: Mad House 30-1 · Trainer R5: Bacio 5-2, R5: No Nay Hudson 15-1, R5: Outfielder 30-1, R7: Eccentric 30-1 +1 more★ FASTEST WORKFigures have slipped: 97, 82, 76 over its last three. Figure of 98 on the record sits above the 93 par.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 19; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 KEE 6½f D OC 100k n3x 4th/5 -7L 76 1.2-1 L Last away;ins;4p upr 5/22 CD 6f D OC 100k n3x 5th/5 -7½L 82 2.5-1 L Trailed 4p; no impact 4/18 KEE 6f D OC 80k n2x Won/5 97 2.3-1 L Ins;dug in;repelld foe 11Saudi Crown▲F. Prat · B. CoxPrat · CoxA95 79 102►↕5-2Fair 9-218%
► Steady95 79 102 ↕A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 932Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 79–102 · Last 3 figs 95 79 102
▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 93Also today · Jockey R1: Powerline 8-5, R2: Virabhadrasana 7-2, R4: Ways And Means 7-5, R5: Yellow Card 8-1 +7 more · Trainer R6: Further Ado 2-1, R7: Bless The Broken 20-1, R7: Stellify 12-1, R10: Immersive 30-14 WORKS IN 30 DAYSBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 102, with 98 next best. Cuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 5d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 PRX 1m D PRXDrtMil Stk 4th/9 -6L 95 2.8-1 Stalked;flattened lane 6/6 SAR 1m D MtropltH G1 5th/7 -15L 79 12-1 Vied 3w then 2w betw 4/4 KEE 7f D Cmnwlth G3 Won/6 102 1.0-1 Press 4-5p;drove clear 12Here Mi SongE. Morales · W. Stinson Jr.Morales · Stinson Jr.C68 96 89▼▼-25↕@trip 9815-1Fair 15-16%
▼▼ Big drop -2568 96 89 ↕@trip 98CCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–96 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 96 89
2nd of 6 at 4F on Oct 23, in :48.00. Purse drops from $400,000 to $185,000 against its last start.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 KEE 6f D Phoenix G2 8th/8 -9L 68 32-1 b 3p;6p upr;tire;left ld 8/17 ELP 6½f D OC 80k b 4th/7 -½L 96 5.3-1 b L In range 4p; bid btwn 7/18 ELP 6½f D JeffHllMm Stk 3rd/9 -½L 89 11-1 b Vied ins wnnr;held shw 13Henro▼R. Bejarano · C. HartmanBejarano · HartmanC87 86 88►≡20-1Fair 20-14%
► Steady87 86 88 ≡C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 86–89 · Last 3 figs 87 86 88
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises180D+ LAYOFFReturns from a 194-day break. The Sep 11 work, 4F in :47.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 13d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 4/19 OP 6f D OC 62k n1y 4th/7 -4L 87 4.1-1 L 2p-rail; rallied late 3/1 OP 6f D RHP 75-85 4th/10 -8¾L 86 15-1 L Bump st; 2p; 9p upper 2/13 OP 6f D RHP 70-80 2nd/7 -4L 88 4.6-1 L Ins1/4;5p1/8;rally plc
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BC2 · RACE 3
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $100,000
Claiming $100,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.82
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #9 Sir Greylind (a closer, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 88 · 93 · 96. Backup is #11 Saudi Crown at 5-2. Use #5 Extra Anejo in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #11 SAUDI CROWN (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #11 SAUDI CROWN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 21.9%).
- #1 BOOTH — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.5% to their 15.4%).
- #9 SIR GREYLIND — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 8.7%, the board 8.5%.
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #1 Booth; pressure from #3 Jimmy Rules, #7 Durante; the shape helps #2 Steeze, #3 Jimmy Rules, #5 Extra Anejo; and works against #1 Booth.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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