R3 BC2 · Optional Claiming $100,000

12:25 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $185,000 · 13 runners12:25 PM · 6½f Dirt · 13 runners

Upcoming $185K · Optional Claiming $100,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #1 Booth (4-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 100 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Booth★J. Ortiz · S. AsmussenOrtiz · AsmussenA92 96 55▲▲+12↕@trip 1004-1Fair 6-114%▲▲ Big jump +1292 96 55 ↕@trip 100A★ Best at the trip 100

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–96 · Best fig at today's trip 100 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 96 55

    ★ Best at the trip 100
    Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Highwaymen 6-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R4: Explora 4-1, R5: Possiblemente 12-1 +7 more · Trainer R1: Powerline 8-5, this race: Extra Anejo 8-1, R8: Stradale 20-1, R12: Magnitude 6-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Runs for $185,000 today after a $400,000 race last time. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 20; 1 work in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2KEE6f DPhoenix G24th/8 by hd926.7-12w-3p;vied;yielded btw
    7/11PRM6f DIowaSpntB100kWon/8962.3-1Clear 5/16;kpt to task
    6/27LS5f TGrpTfSprtB125k9th/9 -14L5516-1LGave way turn
  2. 2Steeze▲J. Alvarado · R. MottAlvarado · MottA96 91 84▲▲+8@trip 918-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best96 91 84@trip 91A▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 93

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 91 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 91 84

    ▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 93
    Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career · Trainer Riley Mott 34% career ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Right In Time 5-2, R6: T Kraft 15-1, R10: Immersive 30-1, R12: Sovereignty 5-2 · Trainer R2: Right In Time 5-2
    WON LAST

    Winner of a 9-horse optional claiming race at KEE last time. A longer trip: -7 furlongs last out, 6½ furlongs today.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 30d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10KEE-7f DOC 80k n2xWon/9 by hd965.5-1L2wbtw;4p1/4;rally;clrd
    8/22ELP6½f DOC 62k n2x3rd/7 -4L9111-1LLag 2p;5p upr;ran on
    3/14CNL1 1/16 DOC 50k n2x4th/6 -3L842.0-1L3wd bid turn; empty
  3. 3Jimmy Rules▼W. Rodriguez · S. AndersonRodriguez · AndersonC89 93 94▲+6↕30-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +689 93 94 ↕C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–94 · Last 3 figs 89 93 94

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Walter A Rodriguez 34% career · Trainer Susan L Anderson 33% career ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R7: Eccentric 30-1
    WON LAST

    Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse allowance race at TDN. A step up in company: allowance before, allowance optional claiming today.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    SHARP LAST OUT Duel insd; proved best last out, and it did it the right way.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 6d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2TDN6f DAlw bWon/7890.7-1LDuel insd;proved best
    8/31TDN6f DAlw n3lWon/8930.6-1L2w; move; easily
    7/28TDN6f DAlw n2lWon/9940.7-1LFull of run;going away
  4. 4Lips Say BlissLSC. Torres · R. MedinaTorres · MedinaC89 85 92►≡15-1Fair 15-16%► Steady89 85 92 ≡CLS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 85–92 · Last 3 figs 89 85 92

    LS

    Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Cristian A Torres 32% career · Trainer Robert Medina 32% career
    Also today · Trainer R4: Praying 30-1
    60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

    Switches from turf to dirt. Off 61 days since the last start.

    EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 10 (4F in :48.20), 2 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/30KD6½f TOC 100k n3x3rd/11 -6½L8923-1b LIns;2w str;late rally
    2/8OP6f DKingCottn Stk5th/5 -6L8518-1b3p5/16;6p lane;no bid
    12/20OP6f DOC 62k n2xWon/9 by 6½924.3-1b LOff slw;bmp;rail rally
  5. 5Extra Anejo▼K. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenB88 93 88▼-3≡@trip 888-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -388 93 88 ≡@trip 88B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (88 vs 93)3

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 88–93 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 93 88

    ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (88 vs 93)
    Jockey Keith J Asmussen 34% career · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ hot
    Also today · Trainer R1: Powerline 8-5, this race: Booth 4-1, R8: Stradale 20-1, R12: Magnitude 6-1
    ★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    Moves up from allowance to allowance optional claiming. Won last out in an 8-horse allowance race at RP.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 22; 1 work in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9RP6½f DAlw bWon/8880.7-1LRallied; 4w; driving;
    8/9ELP1m DRACwbyJnsB200k4th/7 -4L9312-1Prss wnnr;btw 2nd;fade
    6/27CD6½f DBango G35th/6 -5L888.8-1Inside;no menace btwn
  6. 6Will Take ItB. Hernandez Jr. · D. StewartHernandez Jr. · StewartC86 95 84▼-412-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -486 95 84C

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 86 95 84

    Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career · Trainer Dallas Stewart 29% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Candor 20-1, R9: Brilliant Berti 30-1, R11: Burnham Square 8-1 · Trainer R1: Candor 20-1
    60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    158 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Shortens up to 6½ furlongs after going a mile.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    5/25LS1m DSSxtnMle G37th/9 -3¼L8615-1bGain 2w;angl 3-4w
    5/2CD1m DrKnicksGo Stk4th/9 -3L9522-1bGot through; weakened
    3/28OP1m DOklwnMle G35th/7 -5¾L8412-1bRated rail; no fnl bid
  7. 7Durante▼J. Rosario · D. JacobsonRosario · JacobsonC81 71 80►@trip 8120-1Fair 30-14%► Steady81 71 80@trip 81C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 71 80

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Joel Rosario 33% career · Trainer David Jacobson 32% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: You Want Some 12-1, R6: Full Serrano 10-1, R10: Super Corredora 15-1 · Trainer this race: Tennessee Lamb 12-1
    3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    A 90 top number against a 93 par, so it fits the level. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 93).

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3KEE6½f DOC 100k n3x3rd/5 -3L813.9-1b LClear;caught 1/4;yield
    9/5KD6f TTrfSprnt G211th/11 -6L7176-1bHop st;4w;no threat
    6/13DEL6f DAlapocsRnB100k7th/7 -4¾L8015-1bStalk4w;6w upper;empty
  8. 8Tennessee Lamb▼T. Gaffalione · D. JacobsonGaffalione · JacobsonB91 90 63▲▲+18↕@trip 8912-1Fair 15-17%▲▲ Big jump +1891 90 63 ↕@trip 89B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–91 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 90 63

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career · Trainer David Jacobson 32% career ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Supreme Commander 5-1, R4: R Disaster 8-1, R6: Iron Man Cal 12-1, R7: Lush Lips 12-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Durante 20-1
    60D LAYOFF5 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Changes barns, from George R Ii Arnold to David Jacobson. Has moved up each time out, 63 to 90 to 91.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 5 works in 30d, last 6d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/9ELP1m DRACwbyJnsB200k5th/7 -6½L9134-1b3p;5p3/16;no factor
    6/28CD1 1/16 DOC 100k n3x5th/7 -5L9037-1b L2-3p;5p1/4;no menace
    5/9CD1⅛m DOC 100k n3x7th/7 -10L6313-1b LTook back btw3/4;faded
  9. 9Sir Greylind▼F. Arrieta · M. DouaihyArrieta · DouaihyB88 93 96▼-5≡8-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -588 93 96 ≡B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises1

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 88–96 · Last 3 figs 88 93 96

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Francisco Arrieta 32% career · Trainer Michel Douaihy 27% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Knicks Diamonds 10-1, R4: Majestic Oops 15-1
    180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Freshened 266 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Michel Douaihy takes over the training from Kenneth G McPeek.

    EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bump st; 4p; 7p upper. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.60 on Sep 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    2/6OP1⅛m DrGnMcArthrB135k5th/7 -4¾L884.2-1Bump st; 4p; 7p upper
    1/17FG1 1/16 DLouisana G35th/8 -3L937.1-1LWillingly outside
    12/20FG1 1/16 DTenacious Stk2nd/6 -4½L962.9-1LTrail; rally ins; miss
  10. 10Floodlites▼P. Lopez · W. WardLopez · WardC76 82 97▼▼-16↕@trip 7612-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1676 82 97 ↕@trip 76C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 82)

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 76–98 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 82 97

    ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 82)
    Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career · Trainer Wesley A Ward 36% career ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R8: Mad House 30-1 · Trainer R5: Bacio 5-2, R5: No Nay Hudson 15-1, R5: Outfielder 30-1, R7: Eccentric 30-1 +1 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Figures have slipped: 97, 82, 76 over its last three. Figure of 98 on the record sits above the 93 par.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 19; 2 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3KEE6½f DOC 100k n3x4th/5 -7L761.2-1LLast away;ins;4p upr
    5/22CD6f DOC 100k n3x5th/5 -7½L822.5-1LTrailed 4p; no impact
    4/18KEE6f DOC 80k n2xWon/5972.3-1LIns;dug in;repelld foe
  11. 11Saudi Crown▲F. Prat · B. CoxPrat · CoxA95 79 102►↕5-2Fair 9-218%► Steady95 79 102 ↕A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 932

    Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 79–102 · Last 3 figs 95 79 102

    ▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 93
    Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Powerline 8-5, R2: Virabhadrasana 7-2, R4: Ways And Means 7-5, R5: Yellow Card 8-1 +7 more · Trainer R6: Further Ado 2-1, R7: Bless The Broken 20-1, R7: Stellify 12-1, R10: Immersive 30-1
    4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 102, with 98 next best. Cuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 5d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/19PRX1m DPRXDrtMil Stk4th/9 -6L952.8-1Stalked;flattened lane
    6/6SAR1m DMtropltH G15th/7 -15L7912-1Vied 3w then 2w betw
    4/4KEE7f DCmnwlth G3Won/61021.0-1Press 4-5p;drove clear
  12. 12Here Mi SongE. Morales · W. Stinson Jr.Morales · Stinson Jr.C68 96 89▼▼-25↕@trip 9815-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -2568 96 89 ↕@trip 98C

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–96 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 96 89

    Jockey Edgar Morales 32% career · Trainer William Jr Stinson

    2nd of 6 at 4F on Oct 23, in :48.00. Purse drops from $400,000 to $185,000 against its last start.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 7d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2KEE6f DPhoenix G28th/8 -9L6832-1b3p;6p upr;tire;left ld
    8/17ELP6½f DOC 80k b4th/7 -½L965.3-1b LIn range 4p; bid btwn
    7/18ELP6½f DJeffHllMm Stk3rd/9 -½L8911-1bVied ins wnnr;held shw
  13. 13Henro▼R. Bejarano · C. HartmanBejarano · HartmanC87 86 88►≡20-1Fair 20-14%► Steady87 86 88 ≡C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 86–89 · Last 3 figs 87 86 88

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey R Bejarano 34% career · Trainer Chris Hartman 33% career ★ hot
    180D+ LAYOFF

    Returns from a 194-day break. The Sep 11 work, 4F in :47.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.

    EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 13d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    4/19OP6f DOC 62k n1y4th/7 -4L874.1-1L2p-rail; rallied late
    3/1OP6f DRHP 75-854th/10 -8¾L8615-1LBump st; 2p; 9p upper
    2/13OP6f DRHP 70-802nd/7 -4L884.6-1LIns1/4;5p1/8;rally plc

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

BC2 · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $100,000

Field
13 runners
Purse
$185,000
Post
12:25 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#9 · 9%

Claiming $100,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.82

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #9 Sir Greylind (a closer, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 88 · 93 · 96. Backup is #11 Saudi Crown at 5-2. Use #5 Extra Anejo in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #11 SAUDI CROWN (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
  • #11 SAUDI CROWN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 21.9%).
  • #1 BOOTH — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.5% to their 15.4%).
  • #9 SIR GREYLIND — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 8.7%, the board 8.5%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Booth; pressure from #3 Jimmy Rules, #7 Durante; the shape helps #2 Steeze, #3 Jimmy Rules, #5 Extra Anejo; and works against #1 Booth.

Lead
1Booth100
Press
3Jimmy Rules937Durante9312Here Mi Song8911Saudi Crown8810Floodlites83
Stalk
6Will Take It902Steeze875Extra Anejo818Tennessee Lamb72
Close
13Henro784Lips Say Bliss769Sir Greylind71

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

1
Booth
100
3
Jimmy Rules
93
7
Durante
93
6
Will Take It
90
12
Here Mi Song
89
11
Saudi Crown
88
2
Steeze
87
10
Floodlites
83
5
Extra Anejo
81
8
Tennessee Lamb
72

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

9
Sir Greylind
19
4
Lips Say Bliss
17
13
Henro
14
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