R4 BC2 · BCFM Sprint (G1)

1:10 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $1,000,000 · 13 runners1:10 PM · 7f Dirt · 13 runners

Upcoming $1000K · BCFM Sprint (G1)

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Look ForwardU. Rispoli · M. McCarthyRispoli · McCarthyC92 87 98►@trip 9520-1Fair 30-14%► Steady92 87 98@trip 95C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 95 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 87 98

Jockey Umberto Rispoli 37% career · Trainer Michael W McCarthy

Also today · Jockey R2: Girls Wear Pearls 12-1, R5: Sorrento Sky 12-1 · Trainer this race: Simply Joking 30-1, R5: Yellow Card 8-1, R9: Formidable Man 15-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Runs for $1,000,000 after a $300,000 race last out. 2nd last time, ½ length back, in a field of 7.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	CD	6f D	OpenMind Stk	2nd/7 -½L	92	2.4-1	2w btw;bid 3w1/8;dueld
8/2	SAR	7f D	Test G1	4th/8 -1L	87	5.6-1	Chased 2p; wknd late
6/6	SAR	1⅛m D	Acorn G1	2nd/6 -3½L	98	13-1	3w pursuit; ran on

2Ways and Means▲★F. Prat · C. BrownPrat · BrownA104 105 97►@trip 1077-5Fair 3-126%► Steady104 105 97@trip 107A▲ Last fig 104 at/above par 97★ Best at the trip 1072

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 107 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 104 105 97

▲ Last fig 104 at/above par 97★ Best at the trip 107

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Powerline 8-5, R2: Virabhadrasana 7-2, R3: Saudi Crown 5-2, R5: Yellow Card 8-1 +7 more · Trainer R7: Kathynmarissa 5-1, R9: Zulu Kingdom 15-1, R10: Fully Subscribed 8-5

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 107, with 105 next best. Won last out in a 9-horse race at SAR.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 4 works in 30d, last 7d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
8/29	SAR	7f D	Balrina G1	Won/9	104	1.4-1	3-4p trn;steady urging
6/5	SAR	7f D	BedORos G2	Won/6 by 1½	105	0.7-1	Floated 6w1/4; got nod
5/2	CD	7f D	DctyDst G1	2nd/5 -2L	97	1.9-1	4p;shft about;trnd awy

3PrayingJ. Velazquez · R. MedinaVelazquez · MedinaC96 77 69▲▲+17↕@trip 9130-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best96 77 69 ↕@trip 91C
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 69–96 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 77 69
Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career · Trainer Robert Medina 32% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Don't Tell Mom 6-1, R5: Cy Fair 8-1, R6: Bracket Buster 7-2, R7: Gimme A Nother 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Lips Say Bliss 15-1
Figures are climbing: 69, 77, 96 over its last three. Purse goes from $400,000 to $1,000,000, a step up.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 12 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 KEE 6½f D TCA G2 2nd/7 96 14-1 Shk clr;left ld;caught
8/14 SAR 5½f T SmartFncy Stk 7th/7 -7¾L 77 5.8-1 2path turn;empty
6/5 SAR 7f D BedORos G2 6th/6 -14L 69 21-1 6-7w upper; tired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	KEE	6½f D	TCA G2	2nd/7	96	14-1	Shk clr;left ld;caught
8/14	SAR	5½f T	SmartFncy Stk	7th/7 -7¾L	77	5.8-1	2path turn;empty
6/5	SAR	7f D	BedORos G2	6th/6 -14L	69	21-1	6-7w upper; tired

4R Disaster▲▼T. Gaffalione · S. Joseph Jr.Gaffalione · Joseph Jr.A105 82 101▲▲+11↕@trip 1018-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best105 82 101 ↕@trip 101A▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 97▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #13 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 82–105 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 105 82 101

▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 97▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph

Also today · Jockey R1: Supreme Commander 5-1, R3: Tennessee Lamb 12-1, R6: Iron Man Cal 12-1, R7: Lush Lips 12-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Kerry's Kiss 20-1, R5: In Our Time 20-1, R6: Forged Steel 15-1, R10: Eunomia 30-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 5-horse race at BEL at 0.5-1. Runs for $1,000,000 after a $250,000 race last out.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: In hand 3p; edged away.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 8d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/1	BEL	6½f D	GllntBlm G2	Won/5	105	0.5-1	In hand 3p; edged away
8/29	SAR	7f D	Balrina G1	6th/9 -6L	82	6.1-1	Out;bid1/2;4-3p;wknd
5/2	CD	7f D	DctyDst G1	Won/5	101	7.1-1	2p;shk clear;held well

5Foie GrasR. Santana Jr. · M. MakerSantana Jr. · MakerC93 99 96▼-4≡@trip 9920-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -493 99 96 ≡@trip 99C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 93–99 · Best fig at today's trip 99 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 99 96

Jockey Ricardo Jr Santana · Trainer Michael J Maker 36% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Doncho 20-1, R8: Hymn 15-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Winner of a 6-horse race at CT last time. A 63-day gap since its last race.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.00 on Oct 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/28	CT	7f D	PnkRibbonB300k	Won/6	93	1.3-1	L	Surged clear 1/4; best
6/20	CD	7f D	Chicago G2	2nd/8	99	11-1		Press 3w;cleard;nailed
5/25	CD	6f D	WnngClrs G3	3rd/7 -½L	96	5.7-1		Vied ins winner; game

6Majestic OopsF. Arrieta · P. DamatoArrieta · DamatoC95 94 98►≡@trip 9415-1Fair 20-15%► Steady95 94 98 ≡@trip 94C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 91–98 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 94 98

Jockey Francisco Arrieta 32% career · Trainer Philip Damato

Also today · Jockey R1: Knicks Diamonds 10-1, R3: Sir Greylind 8-1 · Trainer R5: Sorrento Sky 12-1, R6: Iron Man Cal 12-1, R7: Thought Process 15-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Shortens up to 7 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles. Purse goes from $200,000 to $1,000,000, a step up.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 6 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/27	SA	1 1/16 D	Zenyatta G2	2nd/7 -3L	95	3.7-1	Bpd brk;2-3-4w;up 2nd
8/1	DMR	1 1/16 D	CLHrsch G1	4th/9 -6L	94	3.2-1	Split foes; late run
5/30	CD	1 1/16 D	Shawnee G2	3rd/7 -3L	98	3.6-1	Ask 5/16;fan5w;lost2nd

7Evanescence▲L. Saez · E. KenneallySaez · KenneallyB97 92 96►≡@trip 9615-1Fair 15-16%► Steady97 92 96 ≡@trip 96B▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 97

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 92–98 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 92 96

▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 97

Jockey Luis Saez 36% career · Trainer Eddie Kenneally 35% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Overtime Bonus 12-1, R2: She's Toasty 9-2, R5: Shisospicy 15-1, R6: Owen Almighty 10-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: She's Toasty 9-2

WON LAST

The Sep 18 work, 5F in :59.80, was the best time at that distance that morning. Worked 5F in :59.40 on Sep 25, 2nd of 14 at the distance.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS SHARP 5f in :59.80 on Sep 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	KEE	6½f D	TCA G2	Won/7 by 2½	97	3.0-1	2wbtw;4w upr;drove pst
7/19	ELP	6f D	TwnBrdgesB175k	3rd/6 by nk	92	2.2-1	Bxd1/4;gd fnsh;outkick
6/20	CD	7f D	Chicago G2	3rd/8 -2½L	96	12-1	Ins;4p upr;up shw;held

8Kerry's KissLSE. Gonzalez · S. Joseph Jr.Gonzalez · Joseph Jr.C91 98 99▼-4@trip 9820-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -491 98 99@trip 98CLS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 98 99

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Edwin Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph

Also today · Jockey R6: Forged Steel 15-1 · Trainer this race: R Disaster 8-1, R5: In Our Time 20-1, R6: Forged Steel 15-1, R10: Eunomia 30-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Trending the wrong way on speed, 99 to 98 to 91. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 101).

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 4d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	GP	7f D	PrncsRny G3	Won/6	91	2.2-1	b	Well rationed;held saf
8/15	GP	7f D	SheerDrmHB100k	Won/5	98	1.4-1	b	Always in command
6/27	GP	6½f D	MsclRmncHB100k	Won/6	99	5.8-1	b	Held gamely; driving;

9Sweet AztecaJ. Hernandez · R. BaltasHernandez · BaltasB93 97 94▼-58-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -593 97 94B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Last 3 figs 93 97 94

Jockey Juan J Hernandez 38% career · Trainer Richard Baltas 31% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Bacio 5-2

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Has run 103 against a 97 par for the class. Off 75 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 4 works in 30d, last 7d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
8/16	DMR	6½f D	RnchBrdo G3	Won/5	93	0.3-1	Outsd;clear;coastd1/16
7/4	LRC	6½f D	GretLdyM G2	Won/7	97	0.7-1	Ins;clear;in hand late
8/24	DMR	6½f D	RchBrdoH G3	Won/4	94	0.4-1	Outside;clear;handily

10Simply JokingM. Franco · M. McCarthyFranco · McCarthyC89 94 96▼▼-8@trip 9430-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -889 94 96@trip 94C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 94 96

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer Michael W McCarthy

Also today · Jockey R1: Shock Value 12-1, R5: Roja 30-1, R6: Moonlight 15-1, R7: Thought Process 15-1 +4 more · Trainer this race: Look Forward 20-1, R5: Yellow Card 8-1, R9: Formidable Man 15-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Runs for $1,000,000 after a $225,000 race last out. 3rd of 92 at 4F on Oct 24, in :47.60.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 2)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 6d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	GP	7f D	PrncsRny G3	2nd/6 -3L	89	1.3-1	Determined;not enuf
8/1	DMR	1 1/16 D	CLHrsch G1	3rd/9 -½L	94	7.7-1	Vie ins;duel;flattened
5/30	SA	1⅛m D	SMrgrta G2	2nd/4	96	1.9-1	Ins;kick clear;yielded

11ExploraJ. Ortiz · B. BaffertOrtiz · BaffertA94 99 96▼-4≡@trip 994-1Fair 6-114%▼ Down -494 99 96 ≡@trip 99A3
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 94–100 · Best fig at today's trip 99 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 99 96
Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Highwaymen 6-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R3: Booth 4-1, R5: Possiblemente 12-1 +7 more · Trainer this race: Nooni 30-1, R10: Splendora 9-2
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Has won 3 of 5 going today's distance. Led at the first call last time.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 5d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 CD 7f D Dogwood G3 2nd/5 94 0.4-1 Ins;dueled turn;missed
8/8 SAR 7f D Test G1 Won/8 99 1.9-1 Out;3p;bid;4p1/4;clear
6/7 CD 7f D LeslisLdy Stk Won/6 96 1.0-1 Off insd;turn back foe

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/19	CD	7f D	Dogwood G3	2nd/5	94	0.4-1	Ins;dueled turn;missed
8/8	SAR	7f D	Test G1	Won/8	99	1.9-1	Out;3p;bid;4p1/4;clear
6/7	CD	7f D	LeslisLdy Stk	Won/6	96	1.0-1	Off insd;turn back foe

12KilwinJ. Castellano · G. ArnoldCastellano · ArnoldB96 96 80▲+5@trip 968-1Fair 7-113%▲ Up +5 · career best96 96 80@trip 96B1

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 96 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 96 80

Jockey J J Castellano 30% career · Trainer George R Ii Arnold 21% career

Also today · Jockey R7: Classic Q 20-1, R12: The Puma 10-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

2 wins from 3 starts at this distance. A 62-day gap since its last race.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
8/29	SAR	7f D	Balrina G1	2nd/9 -7½L	96	3.7-1	2p turn;3p1/4;rail1/8
7/19	ELP	6f D	TwnBrdgesB175k	Won/6 by nk	96	3.2-1	Sttld bd;bid5w;rallied
9/6	KD	6½f T	MusicCty G2	8th/12 -7L	80	1.9-1	No speed;came out str

13Nooni▲M. Gutierrez · B. BaffertGutierrez · BaffertC97 91 94▲▲+11↕@trip 9730-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best97 91 94 ↕@trip 97C▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 97

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 74–97 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 91 94

▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 97

Jockey Mario Gutierrez 32% career · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career

Also today · Trainer this race: Explora 4-1, R10: Splendora 9-2

CLASS UP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Mario Gutierrez takes over from Jose L Ortiz in the saddle. Last start was a win, in a 6-horse optional claiming race at CD at 0.7-1.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 6 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	CD	7f D	OC 100k n3x	Won/6	97	0.7-1	L	Took ovr btwn;kick clr
8/2	ELP	6f D	OC 62k n2x	Won/6	91	1.0-1	L	Perchd 3w-5p;held firm
7/4	LRC	6½f D	GretLdyM G2	3rd/7 -3½L	94	5.6-1		4-5wd;tip7wd;late gain

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (10 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BC2 · RACE 4

UPCOMING

BCFM Sprint (G1)

Field

13 runners

Purse

$1,000,000

Post

1:10 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#12 · 13%

Stakes, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.2

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #12 Kilwin (a closer, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 96 · 96 · 80. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Ways And Means at 7-5. Use #11 Explora in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 WAYS AND MEANS (7-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
#2 WAYS AND MEANS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (29.6% to their 31.7%).
#11 EXPLORA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.8% to their 15.2%).
#12 KILWIN — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 9.8%, the board 8.5%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 KERRY'S KISS (20-1) — our fair 4.3% is above the morning line's 3.6%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Kerry's Kiss; pressure from #10 Simply Joking, #4 R Disaster; the shape helps #7 Evanescence, #12 Kilwin; and works against #4 R Disaster, #8 Kerry's Kiss, #9 Sweet Azteca.

Lead

8Kerry's Kiss10110Simply Joking1004R Disaster959Sweet Azteca91

Press

1Look Forward942Ways And Means9313Nooni9011Explora893Praying885Foie Gras88

Stalk

6Majestic Oops82

12Kilwin847Evanescence83

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Kerry's Kiss

101

Simply Joking

100

R Disaster

Look Forward

Ways And Means

Sweet Azteca

Nooni

Explora

Praying

Foie Gras

Majestic Oops

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Evanescence

Kilwin

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