1CandorB. Hernandez Jr. · D. StewartHernandez Jr. · Stewart?20-1Fair 30-14%
—Debut?Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R3: Will Take It 12-1, R9: Brilliant Berti 30-1, R11: Burnham Square 8-1 · Trainer R3: Will Take It 12-1First career start, by Authentic out of My Due Process. Debut for a trainer who is 11% with first-timers, over 100 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
First start. By Authentic out of My Due Process (Henny Hughes)Trainer D. Stewart: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 29% in the money (100 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 9% wins, 27% in the money (91 starts) · Maiden special weights: 12% wins, 32% in the money (331 starts)Jockey B. Hernandez Jr. in sprints: 27 wins from 197 (14%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/23 CD 4f :47.80 breezing 6/64 10/14 CD 5f 1:01.60 breezing 13/19 10/7 CD 4f :49.60 breezing 33/51 from gate 9/26 CD 4f :48.20 breezing 28/155 9/19 CD 5f 1:00.20 breezing 6/27 2HighwaymenJ. Ortiz · C. DevauxOrtiz · Devaux?6-1Fair 10-19%
—Debut?Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R3: Booth 4-1, R4: Explora 4-1, R5: Possiblemente 12-1 +7 more · Trainer this race: Shock Value 12-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R8: Englishman 4-5, R9: Brilliant Berti 30-1 +1 moreIn the morning works, it had the morning's best 4F work on Oct 5, in :47.80. First-time starter from a barn that wins 15% of the time with them (243 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Oct 5 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dLast three races
First start. By Curlin out of Always on My Mind (Congrats)Trainer C. Devaux: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 28% in the money (243 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 15% wins, 29% in the money (231 starts) · Maiden special weights: 18% wins, 39% in the money (588 starts)Jockey J. Ortiz in sprints: 83 wins from 413 (20%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/25 KEE 4f :48.40 breezing 9/29 10/19 KEE 4f :48.20 breezing 2/12 10/13 KEE 5f 1:00.40 breezing 3/11 from gate 10/5 KEE 4f :47.80 breezing 1/16 ● bullet 9/27 ELP 4f :47.80 breezing 3/68 3Tacamo▼LSA. Ulloa · K. HernandezUlloa · HernandezC62 5030-1Fair 20-15%
—62 50C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 87LSCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 62 50
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 87LSLongshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.
A step up in company: maiden claiming $40,000 before, maiden special weight today. Finished 2nd in a 6-horse maiden claiming $40,000 race at IND, beaten 2½ lengths.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 17d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/22 IND 5½f D MCL 40k 2nd/6 -2½L 62 9.9-1 b Bmp;sted5/16;rally4p 7/14 IND 7½f T MSW 5th/7 -10L 50 51-1 b Lunged;bmp st;bid3p1/4 4Knicks Diamonds▼F. Arrieta · M. SimsArrieta · SimsA7910-1Fair 12-17%
—79A▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 87Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 79
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 87Best recent figure is 79, well under the 87 par for this level. 3rd last time, 2¼ lengths back, in a field of 10.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 12 (4F in :46.80), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 KEE 6f D MSW 3rd/10 -2¼L 79 15-1 4p;5p1/8;rallied 5Powerline▼F. Prat · S. AsmussenPrat · AsmussenA69 818-5Fair 3-125%
—69 81A▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 872Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 69 81
▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 87Also today · Jockey R2: Virabhadrasana 7-2, R3: Saudi Crown 5-2, R4: Ways And Means 7-5, R5: Yellow Card 8-1 +7 more · Trainer R3: Booth 4-1, R3: Extra Anejo 8-1, R8: Stradale 20-1, R12: Magnitude 6-160D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKMoves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. A 69-day gap since its last race.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 4; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/22 SAR 6½f D MSW 4th/9 -6½L 69 0.6-1 Very slw st;rank;chckd 7/18 SAR 6f D MSW 2nd/6 -4½L 81 1.6-1 Rank kickback; bmp 1/4 6You Want Some▼J. Rosario · R. BrynerRosario · BrynerB78 62 71▲▲+1212-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best78 62 71B▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 873Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 78 62 71
▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 87Also today · Jockey R3: Durante 20-1, R6: Full Serrano 10-1, R10: Super Corredora 15-1 · Trainer R2: Betty Sue 15-14 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKChanges barns, from Peter Miller to Raymond C Bryner. Goes 7 furlongs after running 5½ furlongs last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 8; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 DMR 5½f D MSW 5th/10 -3L 78 29-1 b Press outside;weakened 8/27 DMR 5f T MSW 7th/9 -1L 62 4.8-1 b Brk in/bpd;btwn;2w;wkn 8/8 DMR 6f D BestPal G3 5th/5 -6L 71 21-1 b Vied btwn;duel2w;tired 7Bourbon NeatA. Concepcion · W. WaldenConcepcion · Walden?8-1Fair 12-17%
—Debut?Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
No race yet; there is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 25. Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Flightline and Hennesey Smash breeding.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 5d agoLast three races
First start. By Flightline out of Hennesey Smash (Roll Hennessy Roll)Trainer W. Walden: 1st-time starters: 21% wins, 54% in the money (113 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 23% wins, 56% in the money (93 starts) · Maiden special weights: 24% wins, 58% in the money (211 starts)Jockey A. Concepcion in sprints: 42 wins from 305 (14%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/25 CD 4f :48.00 breezing 9/80 from gate 10/17 TP 4f :49.60 breezing 42/66 10/9 TP 4f :48.80 breezing 31/69 10/2 TP 4f :48.80 breezing 8/39 9/26 TP 4f :49.20 breezing 56/97 8Supreme CommanderT. Gaffalione · B. WalshGaffalione · Walsh?5-1Fair 10-110%
—Debut?Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #11 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R3: Tennessee Lamb 12-1, R4: R Disaster 8-1, R6: Iron Man Cal 12-1, R7: Lush Lips 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: Expensive Queen 15-1, R7: Lush Lips 12-1Unraced; this barn has 433 first-time starters on record and wins 15% of them. It was the fastest 4F work of its morning on Sep 25 (:47.00).
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 25; 3 works in 30dLast three races
First start. By Oscar Performance out of Spartina (Ghostzapper)Trainer B. Walsh: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 38% in the money (433 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 13% wins, 37% in the money (372 starts) · Maiden special weights: 16% wins, 45% in the money (1051 starts)Jockey T. Gaffalione in sprints: 70 wins from 404 (17%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/23 KEE 4f :48.60 breezing 23/85 10/16 KEE 4f :48.80 breezing 21/68 10/2 KEE 4f :48.60 breezing 37/85 9/25 CD 4f :47.00 breezing 1/69 ● bullet from gate 9/18 CD 5f 1:01.20 breezing 13/25 9Mahogany Dream▼B. Curtis · N. GoodwinCurtis · GoodwinB82 81 73▲▲+920-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best82 81 73B▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 871Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Last 3 figs 82 81 73
▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87★ FASTEST WORKLast race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Figures are climbing: 73, 81, 82 over its last three.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.60 on Sep 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 KEE 1m T MSW 3rd/12 -4¼L 82 13-1 4p;6p1/4;rallied 9/7 KD 6½f T MSW 3rd/12 -4¼L 81 17-1 Angl out;finished well 8/23 ELP 1m D MSW 6th/12 -3¾L 73 6.2-1 Prss 2w;vied btw;faded 10Baytown Thracian▼O. Mojica Jr. · P. McEnteeMojica Jr. · McEnteeC2430-1Fair 50-12%
—24C▼ Best fig 24 is 5+ under today's par 87Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 24
▼ Best fig 24 is 5+ under today's par 87Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to 7 furlongs. Last out was 7th, 23 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse race at WO.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 20 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/13 WO 5½f D Moc40000 7th/7 -23L 24 27-1 b Bmpd; sqz'd brk 11Overtime Bonus▼L. Saez · M. CasseSaez · CasseA80 71 72▲▲+812-1Fair 12-18%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best80 71 72A▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 87Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 80 71 72
▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 87Also today · Jockey R2: She's Toasty 9-2, R4: Evanescence 15-1, R5: Shisospicy 15-1, R6: Owen Almighty 10-1 +5 more · Trainer R5: Time To Dazzle 20-1, R7: Classic Q 20-1, R9: Facteur Cheval 30-1, R10: Nitrogen 6-5 +1 more★ FASTEST WORKLed at the first call last time. Worked 4F in :48.80 on Sep 23, 2nd of 19 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 4)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 8 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 KEE 6f D MSW 2nd/10 by hd 80 17-1 Ins pair turn;game plc 9/5 KD 7f T MSW 3rd/8 by hd 71 1.9-1 Press 2-3w;outfinished 7/26 ELP 6f D MSW 5th/9 -6L 72 3.3-1 Bump st;track 4p;yield 12Shock Value▼M. Franco · C. DevauxFranco · DevauxB7212-1Fair 15-16%
—72B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 87Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 72
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 87Also today · Jockey R4: Simply Joking 30-1, R5: Roja 30-1, R6: Moonlight 15-1, R7: Thought Process 15-1 +4 more · Trainer this race: Highwaymen 6-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R8: Englishman 4-5, R9: Brilliant Berti 30-1 +1 more3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSNeeds to move up: the best of its last five is 72 against a 87 par. Off 50 days since the last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Green stretch; evenly), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 3 works in 30d, last one 10d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/10 CD 6f D MSW 6th/10 -8L 72 21-1 Green stretch; evenly
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #6, #11.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BC2 · RACE 1
UPCOMINGMaiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.2
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #9 Mahogany Dream (a closer, M/L 20-1). Recent figures: 82 · 81 · 73. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Powerline at 8-5. Use #6 You Want Some in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #5 POWERLINE (8-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #5 POWERLINE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (28.7% to their 29.9%).
- #8 SUPREME COMMANDER — our #11 number, about right at the windows (11.9% to their 13.0%).
- #2 HIGHWAYMEN — our #10 number, about right at the windows (10.2% to their 11.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #9 MAHOGANY DREAM (20-1) — our fair 5.2% is above the morning line's 3.7%; supported by: figures trending up 73→81→82 (project ~80)
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #11 Overtime Bonus; pressure from #6 You Want Some; the shape helps #3 Tacamo, #4 Knicks Diamonds, #5 Powerline; and works against #1 Candor, #2 Highwaymen, #6 You Want Some.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
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