1John the Beer Man▼K. Carmouche · R. AtrasCarmouche · AtrasC80 98 96▼▼-16@trip 9830-1Fair 20-15%
▼▼ Big drop -1680 98 96@trip 98C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises2Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 98 96
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSPurse drops from $1,750,000 to $1,000,000 against its last start. 2 wins from 3 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)TROUBLED TRIP Forward; 3-5w; flattened last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 4 works in 30d, last 5d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 KD 6f T TrfSprnt G2 7th/11 -3¼L 80 1.4-1 b Forward;3-5w;flattened 8/9 SAR 5½f T Troy G2 Won/8 98 3.5-1 b Pace 2p; bump; gamely 6/6 SAR 5½f T Jaipur G1 3rd/10 by hd 96 6.0-1 b Hustled st; battled on 2ShisospicyL. Saez · J. D'AngeloSaez · D'AngeloB80 106 96▼▼-20@trip 9715-1Fair 20-14%
▼▼ Big drop -2080 106 96@trip 97BCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #12 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -20 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 106 96
Also today · Jockey R1: Overtime Bonus 12-1, R2: She's Toasty 9-2, R4: Evanescence 15-1, R6: Owen Almighty 10-1 +5 more180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKFreshened 182 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 106, with 105 next best.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 15 (5F in :59.40), 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/1 CD 5½f T UnbdlSdn G2 7th/7 -6L 80 0.7-1 b Bob bit st;3p;wknd btw 11/1 DMR 5f T BCTrfSpt G1 Won/12 106 5.3-1 b Pace inside; drew away 9/6 KD 6½f T MusicCty G2 Won/12 96 3.2-1 b Inside; kicked clear 3BacioJ. Hernandez · W. WardHernandez · WardC92 92 95►5-2Fair 7-113%
► Steady92 92 95CCard model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #15 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 92 92 95
Also today · Jockey R4: Sweet Azteca 8-1 · Trainer R3: Floodlites 12-1, this race: No Nay Hudson 15-1, this race: Outfielder 30-1, R7: Eccentric 30-1 +1 more60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTWon last out in an 18-horse claiming race at YOR. New trainer: Wesley A *ward had it last time, Wesley A Ward now.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS Routine prep: 4 works in 30d, last 5d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/21 YOR 5f T Clmr Cty Of G1 Won/18 — 3.0-1 6/19 ASC 5f T Plc Of Hly156k Won/27 — 3.0-1 4/28 CD 5f T OC 80k n2x Won/7 92 0.3-1 L Handy 4RojaLSM. Franco · H. MotionFranco · MotionC85 97 89▼-7@trip 9730-1Fair 20-14%
▼ Down -785 97 89@trip 97CLSCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 97 89
LSLongshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 2%. A read, not a bet.
Also today · Jockey R1: Shock Value 12-1, R4: Simply Joking 30-1, R6: Moonlight 15-1, R7: Thought Process 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R7: Gimme A Nother 10-1, R11: Test Score 30-160D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTComes in off a victory in a 6-horse race at CNL. Returns from a 90-day break.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (4 works in 30d, last 6d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/1 CNL 5½f T AndyGuestB150k Won/6 85 0.4-1 2p-ins;clear uppr;safe 6/4 SAR 5½f T Intcntnt G2 Won/9 97 5.7-1 Cut pace 2p; held well 4/29 CD 5f T OC 80k n2x Won/9 89 0.9-1 L Ins;shk clear upr;held 5Time to DazzleO. Murphy · M. CasseMurphy · CasseC94 99 93►≡@trip 9620-1Fair 20-14%
► Steady94 99 93 ≡@trip 96CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 90–99 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 99 93
Also today · Jockey R7: Bless The Broken 20-1, R8: American Stage 30-1, R9: Lugal 30-1, R11: Bay City Roller 5-1 · Trainer R1: Overtime Bonus 12-1, R7: Classic Q 20-1, R9: Facteur Cheval 30-1, R10: Nitrogen 6-5 +1 moreWON LASTRuns for $1,000,000 after a $400,000 race last out. Last start was a win, in a 7-horse race at KEE at 2-1.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (5w1/4; rally; up at wire), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 26d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 KEE 5½f T Franklin G2 Won/7 by 5 94 2.0-1 5w1/4;rally;up at wire 8/29 KD 6½f T LdsTfSpt G1 2nd/10 -3½L 99 12-1 Stlkd 3-4w;held 2nd 7/25 WO 6½f D Hendrie G3 2nd/9 -1½L 93 3.8-1 L 4wd turn; held 2nd 6Yellow CardF. Prat · M. McCarthyPrat · McCarthyA96 93 96▲+3≡@trip 968-1Fair 15-16%
▲ Up +396 93 96 ≡@trip 96ACard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #11 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 91–96 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 93 96
Also today · Jockey R1: Powerline 8-5, R2: Virabhadrasana 7-2, R3: Saudi Crown 5-2, R4: Ways And Means 7-5 +7 more · Trainer R4: Look Forward 20-1, R4: Simply Joking 30-1, R9: Formidable Man 15-1180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTBack after 181 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Has won 3 of 7 going today's distance.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 4 works in 30d, last one 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/2 CD 5½f T TurfSprt G2 Won/10 by 1½ 96 2.9-1 Long drv btw;prevailed 4/4 KEE 5½f T Shakrtwn G2 2nd/12 -2½L 93 4.3-1 Pinch9/16;8p upr;rally 2/8 SA 6f T rClockrCnrB100k Won/7 by 2 96 3.2-1 Crowded early;2w;swung 7Comanche BraveB. Loughnane · D. O'BrienLoughnane · O'Brien?3-1Fair 8-111%
——?Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #17 · Tier ?
WON LASTChanges barns, from Donnacha *o'brien to Donnacha O'Brien. Purse goes from $433,366 to $1,000,000, a step up.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/13 CGH 5f T Br 1 Bttng G1 Won/17 — 2.5-1 7/11 NKT 6f T Al Bst Equw G1 Won/11 — 11-1 6/20 ASC 6f T Qun Elzbth G1 7th/18 — 7.5-1 8Possiblemente▼J. Ortiz · J. SharpOrtiz · SharpC87 89 92▼-5≡@trip 9412-1Fair 12-18%
▼ Down -587 89 92 ≡@trip 94C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises1Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #1 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 87–94 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 89 92
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesAlso today · Jockey R1: Highwaymen 6-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R3: Booth 4-1, R4: Explora 4-1 +7 more4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTPosted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 17, in :48.00. Winner of an 11-horse race at KD last time.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Oct 17 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 KD 6f T TrfSprnt G2 Won/11 87 4.8-1 b Attnd pace;shook free 7/5 SAR 5½f T HarvyPack Stk 2nd/8 -1L 89 7.3-1 b Bmpd early;svd ground 5/30 WO 6f D JcqCrtir G3 Won/7 by 3½ 92 4.5-1 b L Poised;surged 70yds 9In Our Time▲M. Husbands · S. Joseph Jr.Husbands · Joseph Jr.A105 89 91▲▲+13@trip 9720-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best105 89 91@trip 97A▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 97Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 97 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 105 89 91
▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 97Also today · Jockey R10: Eunomia 30-1 · Trainer R4: R Disaster 8-1, R4: Kerry's Kiss 20-1, R6: Forged Steel 15-1, R10: Eunomia 30-160D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTHas run 105 against a 97 par for the class. Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going 6½ furlongs.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 22; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 KD 6½f T LdsTfSpt G1 Won/10 105 5.5-1 Brk shrp;ins;drw clear 7/11 SAR 5½f T Caress G2 3rd/5 89 1.5-1 Dueled 3w; kept on 6/4 SAR 5½f T Intcntnt G2 5th/9 -3L 91 2.6-1 Stumbled st; one paced 10Cy FairJ. Velazquez · G. WeaverVelazquez · WeaverB91 95 96▼-5≡@trip 968-1Fair 12-18%
▼ Down -591 95 96 ≡@trip 96B3Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 91–96 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 95 96
Also today · Jockey R2: Don't Tell Mom 6-1, R4: Praying 30-1, R6: Bracket Buster 7-2, R7: Gimme A Nother 10-1 +4 more◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS5 wins from 7 starts at this distance. Back to 5½ furlongs off a 6½ furlongs race.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 4 works in 30d, last one 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 KD 6½f T MusicCty G2 6th/12 -2½L 91 0.5-1 Inside;lacked room 7/18 SAR 5½f T CrntnCp G3 Won/5 by ½ 95 0.5-1 Path taken7/16;ins trn 4/30 CD 5½f T Mamzelle G3 Won/9 96 1.0-1 3-4p;bid upr;duel;edge 11Joe Shiesty▲L. De · E. FosterDe · FosterA98 93 92▲+5≡@trip 9810-1Fair 15-16%
▲ Up +5 · career best98 93 92 ≡@trip 98A▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 97Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 92–98 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 93 92
▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 97★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTHas moved up each time out, 92 to 93 to 98. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 100).
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 9d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 KEE 5½f T Woodford G2 Won/9 by hd 98 2.9-1 b Ins foe;dug in 2p;game 8/2 ELP 5½f T TurfSprnt Stk Won/9 93 2.2-1 b Ins;cleared 3/16;held 6/6 CD 5f T MghtyBeau Stk 2nd/7 by hd 92 1.5-1 b Inside;gamely;held 2nd 12Sorrento SkyU. Rispoli · P. DamatoRispoli · DamatoC93 91 91►≡12-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady93 91 91 ≡CCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 90–93 · Last 3 figs 93 91 91
Also today · Jockey R2: Girls Wear Pearls 12-1, R4: Look Forward 20-1 · Trainer R4: Majestic Oops 15-1, R6: Iron Man Cal 12-1, R7: Thought Process 15-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTStretches out from -6½ furlongs to 5½ furlongs. 3rd of 8 at 4F on Oct 9, in :49.20.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Swung 5w; charged home. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 17; 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 SA -6½f T EddieD G2 Won/7 by 2¼ 93 2.1-1 Swung 5w;charged home 8/22 DMR 5f T GrnFlshH G2 Won/8 by 3½ 91 7.0-1 Ins-2w;mvd out;rallied 7/19 DMR 5f T OC 100k b 3rd/7 -3¼L 91 9.5-1 L 2wd;angled;game3rd 13Starlust▲R. Ryan · R. BeckettRyan · BeckettC9820-1Fair 30-13%
—98C▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 97Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 98
▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 97Ralph Beckett takes over the training from Ralph *beckett. Runs for $1,000,000 after a $131,751 race last out.
PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 NBY 5.2f T Dub Intrntn G3 4th/11 — 2.2-1 9/13 CGH 5f T Br 1 Bttng G1 4th/17 — 12-1 8/21 YOR 5f T Clmr Cty Of G1 2nd/18 — 25-1 14Miss YechanceJ. Nicholls · K. BurkeNicholls · Burke?15-1Fair 20-15%
——?Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
WON LASTSheds 12 pounds from its last start. New trainer: K R *burke had it last time, Karl Burke now.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 LCH 4.97273f T L'bby Lngch G1 Won/15 — — 9/19 NBY 5.2f T Dub Intrntn G3 Won/11 — 12-1 8/19 YOR 5f T Irsh Thrug133k Won/19 — 9.0-1 15Big MojoT. Marquand · M. ApplebyMarquand · Appleby?20-1Fair 50-12%
——?Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #18 · Tier ?
Tom Marquand takes over from William *buick in the saddle. Purse goes from $585,904 to $1,000,000, a step up.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 730d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 HAY 6f T Btfr Sprnt G1 3rd/8 — 9.0-1 8/9 CGH 6f T FBD Htls An G3 Won/5 — 1.2-1 7/11 NKT 6f T Al Bst Equw G1 10th/11 — 12-1 16No Nay Hudson▲J. Ortiz · W. WardOrtiz · WardB97 89 89▲+5@trip 9715-1Fair 30-14%
▲ Up +5 · career best97 89 89@trip 97B▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 97Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #14 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 97 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 89 89
▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 97Also today · Jockey R1: Highwaymen 6-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R3: Booth 4-1, R4: Explora 4-1 +7 more · Trainer R3: Floodlites 12-1, this race: Bacio 5-2, this race: Outfielder 30-1, R7: Eccentric 30-1 +1 moreCarries 126 pounds, 5 more than last time. Purse goes from $400,000 to $1,000,000, a step up.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 5d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 KEE 5½f T Woodford G2 2nd/9 -2L 97 7.9-1 Ins;2-4p1/8;rally;bid 8/22 DMR 5f T GrnFlshH G2 2nd/8 -2L 89 6.6-1 2w;aim1/8;outkicked 4/4 KEE 5½f T Shakrtwn G2 7th/12 -5¾L 89 16-1 2w;5p1/4;no menace 17Doncho▼R. Santana Jr. · M. LovellSantana Jr. · LovellC96 98 91►≡@trip 9820-1Fair 30-14%
► Steady96 98 91 ≡@trip 98C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 91–98 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 98 91
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ FASTEST WORKWorked 5F in :58.80 on Sep 20, 3rd of 11 at the distance. 4 wins from 9 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.80 on Oct 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 KEE 5½f T Woodford G2 3rd/9 96 2.3-1 2w;duel 3p1/4;yld late 8/9 SAR 5½f T Troy G2 3rd/8 -½L 98 6.9-1 Bumped foe repeatedly 7/10 IND 5f T WmGarrttHB100k Won/8 91 1.0-1 L Stmb;clear;held sway 18OutfielderD. Egan · W. WardEgan · WardC94 86 92▲+5@trip 9430-1Fair 50-12%
▲ Up +5 · career best94 86 92@trip 94CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #16 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 94 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 86 92
Also today · Trainer R3: Floodlites 12-1, this race: Bacio 5-2, this race: No Nay Hudson 15-1, R7: Eccentric 30-1 +1 moreWON LASTDropped in well back early last out, 6th of 7 at the first call. Last start was a win, in a 7-horse allowance race at KEE at 1.7-1.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 10 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 KEE 5½f T Alw C Won/7 by 4 94 1.7-1 L Ins;5p upr;up in time 8/16 SAR 5½f T Mahony G3 4th/7 -2½L 86 0.7-1 3p turn;4p1/4;no kick 6/19 ASC 6f T Cmmnwlth Cu G1 10th/22 — 25-1
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (11 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BC2 · RACE 5
UPCOMINGB.C. Turf Spt Stakes (G1)
Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 60.86
The shape is the story here: 6 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #8 Possiblemente (a presser/stalker, M/L 12-1). Recent figures: 87 · 89 · 92. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 John The Beer Man at 30-1. Use #10 Cy Fair in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 BACIO (5-2) — our number has it ranked #15.
- #3 BACIO — our #15 number, about right at the windows (16.3% to their 18.7%).
- #7 COMANCHE BRAVE — our #17 number, about right at the windows (14.5% to their 16.4%).
- #10 CY FAIR — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 7.7%, the board 7.3%.
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 JOHN THE BEER MAN (30-1) — our fair 2.9% is above the morning line's 2.1%; supported by: top barn (32%) + jockey (36%) at 30-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #1 John The Beer Man; pressure from #11 Joe Shiesty, #2 Shisospicy; the shape helps #5 Time To Dazzle, #13 Starlust; and works against #1 John The Beer Man, #2 Shisospicy, #3 Bacio.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA
PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) / DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 5 (RACES 5-9)
BET OPTIONS
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