BELMONT PARK · RACE 1
UPCOMINGClaiming $20,000
Claiming $20,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 99.22
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #7 Icy Legs (a closer, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 71 · 60 · 72. Backup is #4 Ur Desire at 6-5. Use #1 Queen Sally in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Stretches out from 7 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. Was 8th of 8 at the first call last time.
A big drop, allowance to $20,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Best recent figure of 74 sits right around the 77 par.
Was running in $40,000 claiming; today's $20,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
Switches from turf to dirt. Drops from $40,000 claiming to $20,000 claiming.
Tops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 75 for the next best. Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 7 furlongs last time.
8th last time, 14 lengths back, in a field of 8. Figures have slipped: 73, 67, 48 over its last three.
Returns from a 235-day break, the biggest in the field. Harold James Bond takes over the training from Kevin Bond.
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 UR DESIRE (6-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #4 UR DESIRE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (32.5% to their 35.2%).
- #5 ESSENCE L VEE — our #5 number, about right at the windows (19.5% to their 19.4%).
- #1 QUEEN SALLY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.9% to their 15.5%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 ICY LEGS (10-1) — our fair 8.5% is above the morning line's 7.0%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Luckforyou; pressure from #2 Roseberns Dream, #6 Bodegas; the shape helps #7 Icy Legs; and works against #2 Roseberns Dream, #3 Luckforyou, #6 Bodegas.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 1 & 2; PICK 3 ($1) (1-3)
EARLY PICK 5 (.50) (1-5)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta