BELMONT PARK · RACE 5
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $55,000
Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 98.53
The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #4 Old Time Rocknroll (a closer, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 80 · 80 · 86. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #12 Duty at 6-1. Use #1 Mortal Lock in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $55,000 is an easier level on paper. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call.
Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden claiming $55,000 now. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 85).
Switches from dirt to turf. Last out was 5th, 11 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse maiden claiming $85,000 race at SAR.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 83 to 77 to 76. Still looking for the first win after 7 starts.
4th last time, 5 lengths back, in a field of 10. A 79 top number against a 82 par, so it fits the level.
96 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $55,000 today.
Best recent figure is 74, well under the 82 par for this level. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
A 71 is the high figure lately, short of the 82 par. Switches from dirt to turf.
Figures are climbing: 56, 62, 67 over its last three. Raises its level, maiden claiming $20,000 last time and maiden claiming $55,000 now.
Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 6 furlongs last time. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
Maiden through 7 starts. Moves up from maiden claiming $20,000 to maiden claiming $55,000.
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 OLD TIME ROCKNROLL (3-1) — our number agrees.
- #4 OLD TIME ROCKNROLL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 19.3%).
- #6 ORGONITE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (14.0% to their 15.4%).
- #1 MORTAL LOCK — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.4% to their 12.9%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Fleet N Ready; pressure from #12 Duty, #7 Cederberg; the shape helps #4 Old Time Rocknroll, #8 Trapping Hands; and works against #2 Fleet N Ready, #7 Cederberg, #9 Cost Effective.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 5 & 6; PICK 3 ($1) (5-7)
PICK 4 (.50) (5-8)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta