BELMONT PARK · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Claiming $20,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$40,000

Post

3:45 PM ET

Pace

Closers' Race

Model top pick

#5 · 36%

Claiming $20,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.66

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 Dia Por Dia (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 44 · 82 · 59. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #4 Vino Frizzante at 7-2. Use #1 Amy's Light in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Closers' Race: Closer-heavy field with limited speed. Tactical horses + closers projected to advance late.

1TOP PICK

5Dia Por Dia

Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 9-for-57 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career 13-for-67 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Cederberg 12-1 · Trainer R4: Osbourne 2-1, R5: Old Time Rocknroll 3-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Cuts back from 7½ furlongs to 6 furlongs. Class relief: allowance last time, $20,000 claiming today.

EVEN PACE Tactical speed in a field of closers; early position could be worth a lot.

TROUBLED TRIP Chased ins; faltered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD Jose Lezcano from post 5 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 16 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L2-1

Model36%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last9th · 38d

22ND

4Vino Frizzante

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career 16-for-86 on dirt this meet (19%), #3 of 20 · Trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci 28% career 5-for-32 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Nevah Bettah 2-1, R3: Lolimo 4-1, R4: Osbourne 2-1, R5: Mortal Lock 5-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Pocket Queens 9-2, R8: Suited Connectors 6-1

Ilkay Kantarmaci takes over the training from James W Ferraro. Owns the highest recent figure here at 85.

EVEN PACE Can sit close in a field short on forward types.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 6d ago)

RECORD Manuel Franco from post 4 here: 1 win, 11 top-3 in 15 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model16%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last3rd · 24d

33RD

1Amy's Light

Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 2-for-45 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Edmund Pringle 17% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Burninhunkoflove 10-1, R8: Quell 30-1 · Trainer R8: Burgundie Rose 50-1

Was running in $25,000 claiming; today's $20,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE HELPS Closer-heavy field with little speed, so the late kick projects to matter.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 46 days ago

M/L15-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 24d

44TH

3Pocket Queens

Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 7-for-44 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci 28% career 5-for-32 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Roseberns Dream 10-1, R2: Jetty Up 3-1, R3: Story Of Rory 7-2, R4: Treaty Obligation 3-1 +3 more · Trainer this race: Vino Frizzante 7-2, R8: Suited Connectors 6-1

Beaten 10 lengths for 7th in a 7-horse $25,000 claiming race at BEL. Drops from $25,000 claiming to $20,000 claiming.

PACE HELPS Closer-heavy field with little speed, so the late kick projects to matter.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 4-5w uppr; no response. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 8d ago

M/L9-2

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last7th · 24d

55TH

2That'sthefactjack

Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 6-for-39 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Dominick A Schettino 22% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Ur Desire 6-5, R3: Runcot 12-1, R5: Conquering Force 20-1, R7: Daunt 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Roseberns Dream 10-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Comes in off a victory in an 8-horse $20,000 claiming race at BEL. Figures are climbing: 67, 81, 83 over its last three.

EVEN PACE Can sit close in a field short on forward types.

WORKS SHARP 5f in :59.40 on Sep 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

M/L3-1

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last1st · 26d

7Moonlight Gal

Jockey Ricardo Jr Santana 12-for-86 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Chris Englehart 34% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Key Factor 4-1, R3: Sultan Hassan 7-2, R5: Souper Cha Ching 8-1, R7: Eff Thirty Five 7-2 +1 more

60D LAYOFF

Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile. Off 84 days since the last start.

EVEN PACE Tactical speed in a field of closers; early position could be worth a lot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 13d ago

M/L8-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last4th · 84d

8Calling An Audible

Jockey Luis Raul Jr Rivera 34% career 0-for-20 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Edward R Barker 29% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Kaz' Special One 6-1, R8: Addagirl Addie 30-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Winless in 6 starts at this distance. A 63-day gap since its last race.

PACE HELPS Not much speed ahead of it, which helps a closing run.

TROUBLED TRIP Stumbled brk; ins; 2p1/4 last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago

M/L20-1

Model3%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 63d

6Caradise

Jockey Katie Davis 31% career 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Chetram Bhigroog 16% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Rapidly Royal 12-1, R4: Sin Nombre 20-1

CLASS DROP

New trainer: Mitchell Friedman had it last time, Chetram Bhigroog now. Raises its level, $12,500 claiming last time and $20,000 claiming now.

PACE HELPS Not much speed ahead of it, which helps a closing run.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 33d ago

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

M/L12-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last2nd · 14d

At a glance

Market favourite #5 DIA POR DIA (2-1) — our number agrees.
#5 DIA POR DIA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.3% to their 25.9%).
#2 THAT'STHEFACTJACK — our #5 number, about right at the windows (18.4% to their 19.4%).
#4 VINO FRIZZANTE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.0% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Closers' Race. Closer-heavy field with limited speed. Tactical horses + closers projected to advance late.

Likely leader: #5 Dia Por Dia; the shape helps #1 Amy's Light, #3 Pocket Queens, #6 Caradise.

Lead

none

Press

5Dia Por Dia88

Stalk

2That'sthefactjack894Vino Frizzante807Moonlight Gal64

8Calling An Audible866Caradise811Amy's Light803Pocket Queens80

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

That'sthefactjack

Dia Por Dia

Vino Frizzante

Moonlight Gal

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Calling An Audible

Amy's Light

Pocket Queens

Caradise

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 6 & 7; PICK 3 ($1) (6-8)

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BET OPTIONS

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