BELMONT PARK · RACE 3

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

7 runners

Purse

$100,000

Post

2:12 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Model top pick

#4 · 21%

Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Daisy Doo (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 74 · 68 · 72. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Story Of Rory at 7-2. Use #6 Karsten in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1TOP PICK

4Daisy Doo

Jockey J J Castellano 30% career 11-for-59 on turf this meet (19%), #3 of 24 · Trainer Robert J Ribaudo 16% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Old Time Rocknroll 3-1, R7: Il Siciliano 6-1, R8: Midnight Blue 6-1 · Trainer R7: Daunt 20-1, R8: Quell 30-1

Still looking for the first win after 8 starts. Finished 2nd in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at BEL, beaten 2½ lengths.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 8d back)

RECORD J J Castellano from post 4 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 15 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

M/L4-1

Model21%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last2nd · 33d

22ND

1Story Of Rory

Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 8-for-63 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 4-for-21 on turf this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Roseberns Dream 10-1, R2: Jetty Up 3-1, R4: Treaty Obligation 3-1, R5: Duty 6-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Key Factor 4-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. Last out was 4th, 2½ lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at BEL.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 18; 2 works in 30d

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

M/L7-2

Model20%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 33d

33RD

6Karsten

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 12-for-59 on turf this meet (20%), #2 of 24 · Trainer Jorge R Abreu 32% career 0-for-17 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Cost Effective 10-1, R7: Arkhipov 3-1 · Trainer R8: You Know Better 8-1

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 84, with 80 next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 27 days ago

RECORD Flavien Prat from post 6 here: 6 wins, 9 top-3 in 15 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

M/L3-1

Model21%

Fav?Yes

StyleE

Last5th · 17d

44TH

7Sultan Hassan

Jockey Ricardo Jr Santana 14-for-98 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Paz Horacio De 4-for-14 on turf this meet (29%), #3 of 44

Also today · Jockey R2: Key Factor 4-1, R5: Souper Cha Ching 8-1, R6: Moonlight Gal 8-1, R7: Eff Thirty Five 7-2 +1 more

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Has moved up each time out, 44 to 78 to 80. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 99).

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

M/L7-2

Model16%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last2nd · 70d

55TH

2Runcot

Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-64 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Harold James Bond 23% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Ur Desire 6-5, R5: Conquering Force 20-1, R6: That'sthefactjack 3-1, R7: Daunt 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Bodegas 6-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Back to 6½ furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race. 10th last time, 5½ lengths back, in a field of 12.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Inside; stdy3/16; alter), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago

M/L12-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last10th · 82d

3Bitter Banker

Jockey Rocco Bowen 35% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Marvin Richards 25% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Ancient World 4-1, R8: Burgundie Rose 50-1

180D+ LAYOFFCLASS UP

Returns from a 493-day break, the biggest in the field. A step up in company: maiden claiming $35,000 before, maiden special weight today.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 10 days ago

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last5th · 493d

5Lolimo

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career ★ 23-for-98 on turf this meet (23%), #1 of 24 · Trainer Philip A Bauer 36% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Nevah Bettah 2-1, R4: Osbourne 2-1, R5: Mortal Lock 5-1, R6: Vino Frizzante 7-2 +2 more

First career start, by Yaupon out of Fiftyplustip. First-time starter from a barn that wins 20% of the time with them (50 tried).

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 12d back)

RECORD Manuel Franco from post 5 here: 1 win, 7 top-3 in 15 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

M/L4-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

At a glance

Market favourite #6 KARSTEN (3-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
#6 KARSTEN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 20.5%).
#1 STORY OF RORY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.1% to their 18.2%).
#7 SULTAN HASSAN — our #4 number, about right at the windows (18.1% to their 18.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Sultan Hassan; pressure from #1 Story Of Rory, #6 Karsten; and works against #1 Story Of Rory, #5 Lolimo, #6 Karsten.

Lead

7Sultan Hassan991Story Of Rory886Karsten88

Press

none

Stalk

3Bitter Banker914Daisy Doo852Runcot79

none

No style yet

5Lolimo

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Sultan Hassan

Bitter Banker

Story Of Rory

Karsten

Daisy Doo

Runcot

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Bitter Banker

Sultan Hassan

Runcot

Story Of Rory

Daisy Doo

Karsten

Bet types

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PICK 6 ($1) (3-8)

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