BELMONT PARK · RACE 2
UPCOMINGState-Bred Maiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.4
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #1 Rapidly Royal (early speed, M/L 12-1). Recent figures: 60 · 70 · 64. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #2 Tiz The Name at 8-1. Use #6 Jetty Up in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 70 against a 82 par.
Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Name Changer and Tizsotrue breeding. Debut for a trainer who is 17% with first-timers, over 30 starts.
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Jimmy Creed out of Mama Knows Best. Worked 5F in 1:01.40 on Oct 14, 3rd fastest of 10 that morning.
Purse goes from $80,000 to $100,000, a step up. Best recent figure is 70, well under the 82 par for this level.
Unraced; this barn has 53 first-time starters on record and wins 2% of them. On Oct 2 it was 3rd of 69 at 4F (:47.20).
Unraced, but the Oct 2 work, 3F in :34.00, was the fastest at that distance that morning. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 21.
Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 9). With 6 works on record, the first on Sep 4.
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 NEVAH BETTAH (2-1) — our number has it ranked #4.
- #3 NEVAH BETTAH — our #4 number, about right at the windows (24.3% to their 25.7%).
- #6 JETTY UP — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.2% to their 19.3%).
- #4 KEY FACTOR — our #5 number, about right at the windows (14.5% to their 15.4%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 RAPIDLY ROYAL (12-1) — our fair 9.3% is above the morning line's 5.9%; supported by: no other early speed — can steal an easy lead
Pace
Wire-To-Wire Likely. One speed type with no pressure. Lone speed often dictates fractions and walks the dog.
Likely leader: #1 Rapidly Royal; the shape helps #1 Rapidly Royal; and works against #2 Tiz The Name, #3 Nevah Bettah, #4 Key Factor.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA ($1); QUINELLA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 2 & 3
PICK 3 ($1) (2-4); PICK 4 (.50) (2-5)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta