BELMONT PARK · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $80,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$108,000

Post

4:16 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#1 · 18%

Claiming $80,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Hill Road (a closer, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 90 · 98 · 91. Backup is #4 Eff Thirty Five at 7-2. Use #7 Arkhipov in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

1Hill Road

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career ★ 23-for-98 on turf this meet (23%), #1 of 24 · Trainer D Whitworth Beckman 29% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Nevah Bettah 2-1, R3: Lolimo 4-1, R4: Osbourne 2-1, R5: Mortal Lock 5-1 +2 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Goes 1 5/16 miles after running a mile last time.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 6d back

RECORD Manuel Franco from post 1 here: 8 wins, 16 top-3 in 28 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

M/L9-2

Model18%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 34d

22ND

4Eff Thirty Five

Jockey Ricardo Jr Santana 14-for-98 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Michael J Maker 36% career 1-for-24 on turf this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Key Factor 4-1, R3: Sultan Hassan 7-2, R5: Souper Cha Ching 8-1, R6: Moonlight Gal 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Jetty Up 3-1

LASIX 1ST

A longer trip: 1 1/8 miles last out, 1 5/16 miles today. Purse goes from $75,000 to $108,000, a step up.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Settled; 5w; willingly last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 4d ago

M/L7-2

Model19%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last4th · 31d

33RD

7Arkhipov

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 12-for-59 on turf this meet (20%), #2 of 24 · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 17-for-61 on turf this meet (28%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Karsten 3-1, R5: Cost Effective 10-1 · Trainer R5: Cost Effective 10-1, this race: Market Timing 4-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

3rd of 24 at 4F on Oct 15, in :49.20. 3rd last time, ½ length back, in a field of 7.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

M/L3-1

Model19%

Fav?Yes

StyleS

Last3rd · 67d

44TH

3Il Siciliano

Jockey J J Castellano 30% career 11-for-59 on turf this meet (19%), #3 of 24 · Trainer Antonio Sano 26% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Daisy Doo 4-1, R5: Old Time Rocknroll 3-1, R8: Midnight Blue 6-1

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 102, with 98 next best. Runs for $108,000 today after a $750,000 race last time.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d ago

M/L6-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 25d

55TH

6Market Timing

Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 3-for-75 on turf this meet (4%) · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 17-for-61 on turf this meet (28%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Bankingonit 9-2, R5: Fleet N Ready 20-1, R8: You Know Better 8-1, R8: Avery's Wonderland 8-1 · Trainer R5: Cost Effective 10-1, this race: Arkhipov 3-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Winner of an 8-horse optional claiming race at SAR last time. Has moved up each time out, 86 to 92 to 93.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

SHARP LAST OUT In hand ins; held well last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 17 (4F in :48.80), 3 works in 30d

M/L4-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last1st · 52d

8Hardspun Reason

Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 8-for-63 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer H Graham Motion 35% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Roseberns Dream 10-1, R2: Jetty Up 3-1, R3: Story Of Rory 7-2, R4: Treaty Obligation 3-1 +3 more

LASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Figures are climbing: 82, 88, 89 over its last three. Runs for $108,000 today after a $150,000 race last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 3 works in 30d, last one 11d ago

M/L10-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last4th · 51d

2Daunt

Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-64 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Robert J Ribaudo 16% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Ur Desire 6-5, R3: Runcot 12-1, R5: Conquering Force 20-1, R6: That'sthefactjack 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Daisy Doo 4-1, R8: Quell 30-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Last out was 8th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in an 11-horse optional claiming race at BEL. Was running in optional claiming; today's allowance optional claiming is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last8th · 40d

5Concord Green

Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 10-for-82 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Claude Iii McGaughey 3-for-13 on turf this meet (23%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Counterspy 5-2, R5: Languid 8-1, R8: No Need To Panic 15-1

60D LAYOFFLASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Returns from a 146-day break, the biggest in the field. Figures have slipped: 92, 91, 66 over its last three.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

M/L6-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last7th · 146d

At a glance

Market favourite #7 ARKHIPOV (3-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
#7 ARKHIPOV — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.0% to their 19.6%).
#4 EFF THIRTY FIVE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.5% to their 17.4%).
#1 HILL ROAD — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (16.2% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Market Timing; pressure from #8 Hardspun Reason, #5 Concord Green; the shape helps #4 Eff Thirty Five, #5 Concord Green, #8 Hardspun Reason; and works against #6 Market Timing.

Lead

6Market Timing93

Press

8Hardspun Reason635Concord Green

Stalk

4Eff Thirty Five73

7Arkhipov813Il Siciliano782Daunt771Hill Road76

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Market Timing

Eff Thirty Five

Hardspun Reason

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Il Siciliano

Arkhipov

Hill Road

Daunt

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 7 & 8

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