BELMONT PARK · RACE 4
UPCOMINGClaiming $16,000
Claiming $16,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.66
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #7 Treaty Obligation (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 86 · 80 · 81. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Osbourne at 2-1. Use #2 Ancient World in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Class relief: optional claiming last time, $16,000 claiming today. Picks up 5 pounds from its last start.
Returns from a 102-day break, the biggest in the field. Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs.
Steven I Schauer takes over the training from Linda Rice. Moves up from $12,500 claiming to $16,000 claiming.
Back after 94 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. A big drop, $45,000 claiming to $16,000 claiming, and worth asking why.
Beaten 10 lengths for 8th in an 8-horse $25,000 claiming race at BEL. Was running in $25,000 claiming; today's $16,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.
Last out was 6th, 11 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse optional claiming race at LRL. Was 7th of 7 at the first call last time.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 88 to 77 to 73. Worked 5F in 1:01.80 on Sep 30, 2nd of 10 at the distance.
A 75 is the high figure lately, short of the 86 par. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 OSBOURNE (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #4 OSBOURNE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (24.2% to their 25.6%).
- #5 COUNTERSPY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 21.9%).
- #7 TREATY OBLIGATION — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.9% to their 19.2%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Burninhunkoflove; pressure from #7 Treaty Obligation, #2 Ancient World; the shape helps #1 Graywing, #2 Ancient World, #4 Osbourne; and works against #3 Burninhunkoflove.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA ($1); QUINELLA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 4 & 5
PICK 3 ($1) (4-6); GRAND SLAM ($1) (4-7); LATE PICK 5 (.50) (4-8)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta