BELMONT PARK · RACE 8
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $50,000
Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 79.23
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #4 Quell (a closer, M/L 30-1). Recent figures: 78 · 63 · 61. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Addagirl Addie at 30-1. Use #3 Copper Caduceus in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Figures are climbing: 61, 63, 78 over its last three. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Shortens up to 7 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles.
A longer trip: 5½ furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today. Beaten 3 lengths for 4th in a 12-horse maiden claiming $50,000 race at SAR.
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 81, with 80 next best. Finished 4th in a 12-horse maiden claiming $50,000 race at BEL, beaten 2½ lengths.
The Oct 21 work, 4F in :49.40, was the best time at that distance that morning. Last out was 10th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in a 12-horse maiden claiming $50,000 race at BEL.
Still looking for the first win after 6 starts. Trending the wrong way on speed, 73 to 69 to 65.
Changes barns, from Miguel Clement to Ilkay Kantarmaci. Worked 5F in 1:01.40 on Sep 14, 3rd of 7 at the distance.
5th last time, 3½ lengths back, in a field of 12. A 52-day gap since its last race.
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. 2nd of 7 at 4F on Oct 20, in :49.20.
Maiden through 9 starts. Last out was 11th, 8 lengths behind the winner, in a 12-horse maiden claiming $50,000 race at BEL.
K Carmouche takes over from Katie Davis in the saddle. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 7 furlongs.
Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $50,000 is an easier level on paper. A 75 top number against a 79 par, so it fits the level.
Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $50,000. Switches from dirt to turf.
Off 63 days since the last start. Raises its level, maiden claiming $35,000 last time and maiden claiming $50,000 now.
A 52 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par. Was 7th of 8 at the first call last time.
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 COPPER CADUCEUS (3-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
- #3 COPPER CADUCEUS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.1% to their 15.0%).
- #1 AMIRA'S STAR — our #13 number, about right at the windows (10.7% to their 12.0%).
- #5 CHAUMET — our #8 number, about right at the windows (10.4% to their 10.9%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 QUELL (30-1) — our fair 3.0% is above the morning line's 1.9%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #14 Daylight Dreamer; pressure from #7 Force Of Mischief, #11 Suited Connectors; the shape helps #2 Addagirl Addie, #4 Quell; and works against #1 Amira's Star, #7 Force Of Mischief, #9 Burgundie Rose.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta